2023-12-27 12:55:37
Promotion of Work It anticipates a year 2024 with falling inflation, but also with more contained economic growth and salaries that will continue to rise, but less. The historical employers risk a generalized cooling of the main macroeconomic indicators, the speed of which will be greater or lesser depending on the decisions made by the European Central Bank (ECB) on interest rates. This is what he outlined in his economic situation report, presented this Wednesday at a press conference.
“We find that the patient is already stabilized in terms of inflation and it seems pertinent that the therapy be moderated and [el BCE] think about withdrawing it,” declared the Secretary General of Foment, Salvador William. The Catalan employers’ association relies a large part of its forecast – and its variability – on when the monetary authority’s decision to lower interest rates again occurs. The sooner you do this, the less harm economic growth will be. Spain, for example, will close 2023 with GDP growth of 2% and this indicator will be lowered to 1% in 2024, according to the latest IMF forecasts.
A factor that works against the Spanish economy is that it has lost competitiveness in terms of inflation. Although months ago it managed to position itself as the EU economy where prices rose the least, now it has not only lost that status, but its inflation rate is higher than the European average. In November, according to Eurostat data, the Spanish CPI was 3.3%, compared to 3.1% for the EU as a whole.
A positive note at the business level and negative for the workers’ pockets is that the growth of wages It will moderate next year, according to Foment numbers. After 2023 of “strong growth in labor costs”, based on 5% hourly wages, according to INE data, 2024 will be more contained.
And the salary agreement reached between the CEOE, CCOO and UGT contemplates smaller increases for this next year compared to the current one. Specifically, the minimum increase by agreement should be 4% for 2023 and in 2024 it drops to 3%. Foment has also pointed out that “more moderate inflation expectations” will cause “greater rationality in the negotiating process”, as Guillermo has referred to. That is to say, while prices will rise less, employers trust that the unions will demand lower wage increases.
The employers also anticipate that this general cooling will affect the volume of hiring. He working market After a record first half of the year, it has been in a process of deceleration. A process that Foment predicts will be extended in 2024, although without reaching stagnation or widespread job destruction.
Review of regional financing
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The General Secretary of Public Works has avoided commenting on the request of the President of the Generalitat, Pere Aragonès, to negotiate a model of “unique financing” for Catalonia. “Everything that is singular… we will have to see how that singularity is formed,” stated the employer leader. Guillermo has demanded to have more details of this demand to be able to rule on whether or not it is positive for the interests of the Catalans.
Although Foment has shown itself in favor of reviewing regional financing, for the sake of “greater equity between the different levels of administration” and given that the current model has not been modified since 2009.
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