Lithuania warned that Russia is considering a false-flag drone attack using captured Ukrainian drones to strike Baltic infrastructure, though officials denied an imminent threat. The alert follows heightened tensions in the region, with Poland and Baltic states reinforcing security amid fears of limited Russian provocations.
Lithuania’s defense minister, Robertas Kaunas, stated that Russia is weighing a potential false flag operation
involving Ukrainian drones to target critical infrastructure in the Baltic region. While Kaunas emphasized there was no direct threat
of an attack, the warning underscores growing concerns about Moscow’s hybrid warfare tactics. The claim aligns with broader intelligence assessments from Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland, which have reported increased Russian aggression since 2022, including cyberattacks and sabotage incidents.
Lithuania’s Warning and Regional Concerns
Lithuania’s intelligence agency believes Russia is considering the operation to destabilize the Baltic region, falsely implicating Ukraine in drone strikes on Russian territory. There’s ‘no direct threat’ of an imminent attack,
Kaunas told reporters, but the warning reflects fears that Moscow might exploit the region’s infrastructure to escalate tensions. The claim comes after a series of suspected sabotage incidents and security breaches linked to Russia, prompting Baltic states and Poland to call for stronger NATO coordination in recent months.
President Gitanas Nauseda of Lithuania confirmed in a separate statement that authorities are monitoring risks of limited kinetic operations
targeting critical infrastructure, including energy and transport systems. I cannot deny that we have such information,
Nauseda said, though he did not specify locations or timelines. The Baltic states, along with Poland, have bolstered security around key facilities, citing a long-standing history of Russian hybrid attacks that has intensified since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Poland’s Alerts and NATO Coordination
Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics warned that Russia might test NATO’s Article 5 guarantee, even without a full Ukrainian victory. Even without a total Ukrainian victory, Russia may indirectly test Article 5 and response mechanisms at the Alliance and European Union levels,
he said. The three Baltic states and Poland have deployed additional troops to protect infrastructure, citing a history of Russian hybrid attacks.
Russian Denials and Strategic Implications
Russian officials dismissed the warnings as an attempt to justify NATO’s military buildup in the region. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the claims a fresh batch of bugaboos
designed to prepare the population for further militarization.
He accused Western nations of fabricating an “enemy image” to justify expanding NATO infrastructure in the Baltic states. However, the U.S. and European allies have increasingly focused on Russia’s hybrid threats, including cyberattacks, disinformation, and physical sabotage.
The International Institute of Strategic Studies reported that Russia likely used shadow ships to launch drones over Europe between 2024 and 2026, disrupting civilian aviation. Meanwhile, the European Union identified Russia’s FSB Center 16 as responsible for cyber-espionage and sabotage, including a December attack on a Polish combined heat and power plant. These incidents highlight the evolving nature of Russian hybrid warfare, which combines cyber, physical, and information operations to destabilize adversaries.
What Comes Next: Preparations and Uncertainties
The next few months will be crucial for Baltic security,
according to Rinkevics, as NATO and its allies prepare for potential Russian provocations. Lithuania’s military has deployed additional forces to protect strategic infrastructure, while Poland has intensified security measures following a November attack on rail infrastructure.
As tensions persist, the Baltic states and Poland continue to rely on NATO’s collective defense framework. However, the lack of a clear timeline for potential attacks leaves policymakers navigating uncertainty. Even without a total Ukrainian victory, Russia may indirectly test Article 5,
Rinkevics warned, underscoring the fragile balance of power in Eastern Europe. The coming months will test the region’s preparedness and the effectiveness of NATO’s deterrence strategies against Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics.
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