Liver Cancer Cases Projected to Double by 2050, But New Study Finds 60% are Preventable
A groundbreaking new study reveals that liver cancer, already the third leading cause of cancer deaths globally, is poised for a dramatic surge – with cases nearly doubling by 2050. However, researchers estimate that upwards of 60% of these diagnoses could be avoided through preventative measures, potentially saving 8 to 15 million lives.
A Reversible Trend in Liver Cancer Mortality
Released Monday, a comprehensive study by The Lancet Commission on liver cancer suggests a path toward reversing the rising death rate through increased vaccination rates and proactive lifestyle changes. Without significant shifts in health policy, the number of liver cancer deaths is projected to climb to 1.37 million in 2050, a stark increase from the 760,000 recorded in 2022.
“There is an urgent need to raise awareness within society about the severity of the growing health issue of rising liver cancer cases,” stated a lead author of the Lancet Commission study. “Compared with other cancers, liver cancer is very hard to treat but has more distinct risk factors, which help define specific prevention strategies.”
Global Impact and Shifting Risk Factors
In 2022, approximately 870,000 cases of liver cancer were diagnosed worldwide, making it the sixth most common cancer globally. The Lancet Commission forecasts this number will escalate to 1.52 million cases by 2050. These cases encompass cancers stemming from hepatitis B and C infections, as well as complications related to alcohol consumption and obesity.
While infections from hepatitis B and C are expected to decline – from 39% to 37% and 29% to 26% respectively by 2050 – cancers linked to alcohol and obesity are projected to rise, increasing from 19% to 21% and 8% to 11% of total diagnoses.
“Liver cancer is a growing health issue around the world,” explained Jian Zhou, a professor at Fudan University in China and lead researcher on the study. “We risk seeing close to a doubling of cases and deaths from liver cancer over the next quarter of a century without urgent action to reverse this trend.”
China Leads in Liver Cancer Incidence
China currently bears the largest burden of liver cancer cases, reporting roughly 367,657 new diagnoses in 2022. This figure significantly surpasses the numbers in the United States, which recorded 43,492 new cases, and Japan, with 41,388 cases, according to data from the World Cancer Research Fund.
While liver cancer remains relatively uncommon in the U.S., accounting for just 2.1% of new cancer cases as of 2025, according to the National Cancer Institute, precursors to the disease are increasingly prevalent. Approximately one in four U.S. adults are affected by metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), both of which are linked to cirrhosis.
“I think for most people, if you say cirrhosis, they immediately think of a relative, of someone who was a heavy drinker,” noted a co-author of the report from Baylor College of Medicine. “I think the vast majority do not make the tie between MASLD, or fatty liver, and cirrhosis and liver cancer.”
Prevention is Within Reach
Despite the challenges in treating liver cancer, researchers emphasize its preventability. Key strategies include expanding hepatitis vaccination programs, utilizing GLP-1 medications to address obesity, implementing universal adult screening, increasing taxes on alcohol and strengthening warning labels, and enhancing detection methods, particularly for individuals with existing liver disease.
“With joint and continuous efforts, we believe many liver cancer cases can be prevented, and both the survival and quality of patients with liver cancer will be considerably improved,” Paradis concluded.
