ThA sluggish economy, rising unemployment, agrarian woes and a growing opposition. The central government and the BJP are in big talks. These factors are dimming the BJP’s dream of a third term at the Centre. If the situation continues, the battle for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections will be tough. BJP’s magic wand to overcome crises is Modi. The BJP does not think that the old Hindutva agenda and ultra-nationalism will be allowed anymore. In this situation, the plan to hold the Lok Sabha elections at the end of next year has been activated. The result of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh assembly elections will be crucial in holding elections early. If the BJP comes to power in both the states, it may decide to bring the general elections early.
One country one choice
After coming to power in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP have put forward the main proposal of one country, one election. While the BJP-ruled states welcomed it, the opposition opposed it. The opposition criticized that the agenda of one country, one party was behind the new move. Modi, who participated virtually in a meeting of Speakers of Legislative Assemblies held recently in Kovadia, Gujarat, hinted that he is actively considering the proposal. Besides reducing the financial cost, the new proposal is also based on the view that the loss of time caused by conducting elections at different times in the states can be avoided. Modi had pointed out that holding elections at different times would affect the continuity of development activities. Modi also proposed a single voter list.
Assembly elections in the states of Meghalaya, Nagaland, Tripura, Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Telangana will be held next year. BJP is ruling in five out of nine states. BJP’s aim is coup in Telangana by any means. The election, which has always been described as the semi-final of the Lok Sabha elections, is held in the Hindi heartland. The BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan government is facing a generally weak opposition in Madhya Pradesh. The Sangh Parivar reckons that the fourth term will bring ‘Mamachi’. Anti-incumbency sentiment is strong in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Along with this, the BJP is also pinning its hopes on the infighting within the ruling Congress. Ashok Gehlot- Sachin Pilot Porum Bhupesh Baghel- T. The S Singh Deo dispute also remains unresolved. Assembly elections and general elections in nine states are planned to be held together by the end of 2023. For this, the term of assembly in Meghalaya, Nagaland, Tripura and Karnataka will have to be extended by more than six months.
Six states will go to polls in 2024. In Andhra, Arunachal, Odisha, Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Andhra, YSR Congress is an ally of BJP indirectly if not overtly. BJP also rules states like Arunachal, Haryana and Maharashtra. BJP may be able to keep Naveen Patnaik with him as there is no big challenge in Odisha. The JMM-ruled Jharkhand will be the only opposition. If assembly elections are to be held in these states along with general elections, legislation is necessary. The main challenge is to shorten the term of the legislature. If all this is possible, assembly elections in about 15 states will also be held along with general elections. If the elections in the remaining 13 states and three Union Territories are held together in the second phase, the BJP will be able to intrude to some extent on its goal of one country as one election.
A faltering economy
The countries of the world are reeling from the global economic crisis caused by Covid and the Russia-Ukraine war. The economic powerhouses America and Britain have been severely shaken by the crisis. Rising food prices, energy crisis and inflation are eating away at the economy. The indication is that the world is moving towards a situation similar to that of 2008. All the small countries of Asia are witnessing the flash of crisis. Neighboring countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Pakistan are also facing collapse. It will have resonances in India as well.
The country has not yet recovered from the impact of demonetisation. Inflation remains rampant. Fuel prices are skyrocketing. The rupee is also breaking records on a daily basis. Although it is a fast growing economy, the global crisis will soon affect India too. The government will try to overcome public anger by making popular announcements in the next general budget. In that case, parliament will be dissolved in June and general elections will be held in November-December.
Rising unemployment
Three waves of Covid have hit the labor sector hard. After 2020, the number of unemployed increased to 20 percent. About 21 crore people lost their salaried jobs. 25 percent of people became unemployed in the small industries sector alone. Self-employed entrepreneurs are also in dire straits. The unemployed are increasing day by day. There are no opportunities in the construction and service sectors as before.
According to a study by the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, the unemployment rate in April last year was 7.83 percent. It was 7.6 percent in March. Migrants in foreign countries have lost their jobs and the return has also increased. A good proportion of the population is young people and there is currently no employment for them. Even in the railways where there was massive recruitment, contract recruitment was done. Youth are frustrated with the job insecurity created by privatization. Both the government and the BJP have realized that sooner or later youth violence will flare up.
Agricultural problems
The farmers’ strike was a heavy blow to the Modi government, which had announced that it would double the farmer’s income in five years. After a year-long strike that paralyzed Delhi’s borders, the central government had to withdraw the laws passed by Parliament. The Modi government has still not been able to implement the promises made then. Farmers are still angry. Depreciation of agricultural products is at an all-time high. As the cost of farming increased, many people left the agricultural sector.
Even though the BJP is trying hard to keep the farmers with schemes like Kisan Samman Nidhi, it is doubtful that they will achieve their goals. The strategies adopted in state elections cannot be adopted for general elections. Separate campaigns and strategies are essential. If it fails to convince the farmers, the BJP may lose its footing in the general elections, including in the Hindi heartland.
The opposition is coming back
Congress leadership changes and Nitish Kumar, M.K. The moves of Stalin and Mamata Banerjee have also given new energy to the opposition at the national level. Bharat Jodo Yatra led by Rahul Gandhi created excitement not only among Congress workers. A good turnout in all the passes indicates the success of the yatra. With Mallikarjuna Kharge standing to lead the party and Rahul Gandhi as the face of the Congress in the elections, there is a flicker of confidence in the opposition. The realization that the BJP cannot be brought down from power by remaining divided is evident in the opposition. It was a setback for the BJP when the NDA left the alliance in Bihar and formed the government with the JD(U) and the RJD.
BJP is not sure whether it will get the seats it got last time in the Lok Sabha elections even though it has won the rule in Uttar Pradesh. There are ten states with more constituencies. Out of these five states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Karnataka are ruled by the BJP. Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Bihar and Andhra also have more than 25 Lok Sabha seats in each state. As the states are ruled by opposition parties, the fight will be tough.
A changing India
The Central Vista project, which will change the image of India, will be completed by August next year. 20,000 crore big project. With this, all the major buildings of the capital built by the British will become a historical remnant. The new Parliament building and its associated buildings will become a pillar of pride for the Modi government. The motto of the Sangh Parivar was ‘Ayodhya first then Kashi bakhi aint Mathura’.
With the Lok Sabha elections ahead, the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya is at a fast pace. BJP hopes to complete the construction by October. But Kashi and Mathura are not burning issues like Ayodhya. Therefore, the BJP’s move is to go to the tereri administration of the celebrations. If BJP’s calculations are correct, the country will witness general elections at the end of 2023.
AB Vajpayee, who came to power for the third time at the Center in 1998, dissolved Parliament six months before the end of his term and went for general elections. Vajpayee is ripe for such an adventure in the hope that the boom in the economy and the success of development projects including roads will be favorable. But when the results came in 2004, the Congress-led UPA came to power.
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