2023-12-04 12:45:17
On the contrary, Lukashenka himself indirectly confirmed this during the negotiations with the President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping, thanking the Chinese leader “for promptness”.
Briefly:
Something unexpected happened, something unpleasant that required an immediate new meeting at the highest level. Lukashenka did not attend the third “One Belt One Road” forum, which was held in Beijing on October 17-18. Projects in Belarusian-Chinese relations have been put on hold. Until now, China’s strategy regarding Belarus was based on the fact that the Belarusian territory was considered as a transport hub, a transit bridge to Europe. But as a result of the acute conflict between Belarus and the EU, Western sanctions, the country lost its transit status to a large extent.
This is Lukashenka’s second visit to China this year. The first time he was there was from February 28 to March 2. To visit China twice in one year is something that has never happened in the practice of Belarusian-Chinese relations. This is a sign that something unexpected, unpleasant has happened and there is an urgent need for an immediate new meeting at the highest level.
During the current talks in Beijing, both sides spoke highly of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Apart from purely economic and logistical factors, it is Beijing’s attempt to create a geopolitical alternative to the West. The leadership of Belarus actively supports the idea of building international institutions alternative to the West, and is trying to join the SCO and BRICS. Therefore, this project is being implemented precisely in line with such a foreign policy construct. However, Lukashenka did not come to the third “One Belt One Road” forum, which took place in Beijing on October 17-18. Although the leaders of all the countries claiming allied or special relations with China gathered there. Even the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus did not go there. In general, there was no information about the presence of high Belarusian representatives at this forum. And it was an eloquent signal that something is wrong in Belarusian-Chinese relations.
On November 29, Lukashenka, at the head of a delegation, flew to the United Arab Emirates for the world climate forum. The day before, on November 27, he held a meeting at which the program of his stay in Dubai and the details of the visit were discussed.
It is interesting that during this meeting Lukashenka mentioned the Chinese topic. According to his press service, he asked to be informed about the situation in trade and economic cooperation with China: “The country is very important for us. Naturally, there are many issues that the government had to “ruin”, so to speak, in relations with the People’s Republic of China. What they planned, what they did, what they didn’t do.”
Thus, from this remark, we can conclude that, firstly, there are “many questions” in relations with China; secondly, they must be “disrupted” by the government; thirdly, there was no talk of a possible visit by Lukashenka himself.
As for trips to the Emirates, Lukashenka often flies there and likes to rest there. It cannot be ruled out that even now he had plans to stay in this country. Especially since the climate forum will be held in two weeks.
However, he suddenly interrupts his visit to the Emirates and urgently flies to Beijing. From this we can conclude that the Belarusian side asked for a meeting at the highest level. Because, apparently, controversial issues in bilateral relations cannot be resolved at the government level. Apparently, Xi Jinping’s work schedule finally found a fort and Lukashenka was invited to come. He dropped everything and flew away. And during the negotiations, he did not forget to thank the President of the People’s Republic of China for the very fact of the meeting and for the promptness.
If we evaluate the public part of the negotiations, it is difficult to find a mention of problems among those mutual compliments addressed to each other and bilateral relations. Unless it is worth paying attention to the words of Lukashenka: “We have not found a single issue in which there is no movement. The only issue I would like to discuss with you today is speed.” From this it can be concluded that projects in Belarusian-Chinese relations are put on hold.
Until now, China’s strategy regarding Belarus was based on the fact that the Belarusian territory was considered as a transport hub, a transit bridge to Europe. According to data for 2019, more than 80% of all rail transport between the European Union and China passed through Belarus. But as a result of the acute conflict between Belarus and the EU, Western sanctions, the country lost its transit status to a large extent. According to the estimation of the economist Lev Lvovsky, the turnover of goods through Belarus decreased by approximately 40% compared to 2021. And the problem is getting worse. There is a deadlock on the Belarusian-Polish and Belarusian-Lithuanian borders, there is a question about their complete overlap. China is not satisfied with this.
However, the problem of the conflict between Belarus and the European Union is insoluble today. It is not clear what Lukashenka could have promised Xi Jinping.
Another interesting moment. According to the Xinhua news agency, the President of the People’s Republic of China and Alexander Lukashenko discussed the “Ukrainian issue” at a meeting in Beijing. However, the Belarusian state media did not mention it. After all, in such a sensitive issue, the factor of Russia is silently present.
It should also be noted that the son of Alexander Lukashenko Mikalai attended his father’s working lunch with Xi Jinping as a full member of the Belarusian delegation.
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