From Brasília
If the elections were today, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva could be elected president first round. This is indicated by a survey by the Ipec consultancy that gave him more than 52 percent of the valid votes. The numbers were known shortly after 6:00 p.m. this Monday when artists, politicians and intellectuals began to arrive at a convention center in São Paulo where an event was to be held in support of the leader of the Workers’ Party (PT).
At 7:00 p.m. stars like Daniela Mercury and Pablo Vittar had already arrived, and the presence of Chico Buarque y Caetano Velosoas well as the very popular Anitta, the pop diva which has broken all sales records and is a formidable propagandist of the leftist vote among young people. At the same time, images of Lula’s meeting with leaders such as Pope Francis and other international personalities who have shown sympathy for the former turner and fear for the permanence of the current far-right ruler were projected on a giant screen.
According to the Ipec poll, one of the most reliable demographic companies, the PT has 52.7 percent of the valid votes against Jair Bolsonaro’s 34. A technical note: Brazilian legislation does not take into account invalid or blank votes, only those issued by one of the competing candidates are valid.
Now, these figures should not lead the Lulistas to euphoria, given that the query is carried out with an error range of two points, therefore that 52.7 percent can fall to 50.7, a meager margin above the fifty percent needed to win in the first round this Sunday October 2 and avoid the ballottage of 30.
authoritarianism
Nor should it be underestimated that six days left for the vote one of the most anomalous elections since the end of the military dictatorship, under an authoritarian government willing to do anything to perpetuate itself in power. In Brazil there is no dictatorship, nor is there a full democracy. That is why Lula and other leaders of the broad front that supports him state that this October 2 what is at stake is the recovery of democracy.
Bolsonaro said it in London, during the funeral of Queen Elizabeth a week ago and he repeated it when he returned to his country: “if I don’t win by sixty percent” it will be because there was a conspiracy by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), allied to the opposition. The permanent attack on the TSE, which has permeated the perception of Bolsonarist voters, is complemented by the pressure of the armed forces to do a parallel vote counting in the electronic ballot boxes with the undisguised intention of questioning the official count.
Let’s imagine that Lula prevails with 50.02 percent on Sunday night, according to the TSE and the experts – as far as is known, unqualified – sent by the Ministry of Defense allege that there were irregularities in some ballot boxes. so they do not validate that victory.
Will Bolsonaro accept defeat? Will there be mobilizations to repudiate the “fraud” anticipated since last year by Bolsonaro? Will there be an assault on the Palace of the Court in Brasilia emulating the capture of the US Capitol in 2021?
Fear factor
In the days that remain until Sunday, Lula will continue working to conquer the “useful vote” of the candidates without chances of victory, such as Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet, in order to guarantee the points to overcome with some ease the crucial fifty percent. And he will use the hoarse voice that he still has to ask that everyone go to vote in order to increase presenteeism as much as possible: qualitative analyzes of the polls indicate that high presenteeism favors the progressive and left vote.
Instead, absenteeism brings water to the right-wing flow, and that is why the ruling party pulls its strings to inhibit mass participation by spreading fear. This same Monday it was reported the murder of a Lula supporter at the hands of a Bolsonarist in the interior of the state of Ceará, in the northeast region. The murderer, Edmilson Freire da Silva, entered a bar shouting asking who was Lula’s voter, and when Carlos Silva Lima identified himself as a follower of the former turner, he received several stab wounds in the back and died.
Two other PT members were killed by Bolsonaristas in July in the state of Paraná and at the beginning of September in Mato Grosso do Sul. These crimes are the result of the hatred that a president has engendered, declared Gleisi Hoffmann, title of the PT.
armored carnival
In the midst of this heavy atmosphere, precautions were redoubled to protect Lula, who this Sunday led an act in Rio de Janeiro, at the facilities of the Portela samba school, where dancers and singers who have paraded through the Rio de Janeiro Sambadrome performed.
Throughout his speech, the candidate proposed to put an end to the government of a “dangerous” person and did not mistreat criticism of the official pastors who in Rio go hand in hand with the parapolice militias proselytizing for the president’s re-election. He assured that the president’s associate pastors “do not believe in God.”
Among the applause for the carnival artists and cheers for Lula, few noticed that one of the men in his custody was carrying a briefcase. In reality, it was a folding bulletproof shield, ready to cover him in the event of an attack.