A week after the dramatic split in the joint list and 40 days before the elections, the “Maariv-Sophashavu” poll shows that if the elections for the 25th Knesset were to be held today, the group of Netanyahu’s supporters would have strengthened and reached 60 seats, while the group of Netanyahu’s opponents would have weakened to -56 mandates.
The survey also shows that the joint list of Hadash-Ta’al of Ayman Odeh and Ahmed Tibi receives only 4 mandates, as well as Ra’am led by Mansur Abbas, while Balad crashes below the blocking percentage with only 1.2%. This is bad news for the “Bloc of Change”.
And this is the full picture of the mandates from the survey conducted by the Panels Politics Institute under the management of Menachem Lazar: the Likud led Benjamin Netanyahu Leading the way, gaining 2 mandates and rising to 33. There is a future in leadership Yair Lapid, Despite his political trips abroad and his meetings with Erdogan and King Abdullah, loses a mandate and drops to 24.
The state camp led by Benny Gantz and Gideon Sa’ar Maintains stability with 12 mandates. Compared to it in the number of mandates, religious Zionism-Otzma Yehudit leads Smotrich and Ben Gvir, which gets stronger in mandate and rises to 12. In the ultra-orthodox sector, the Shas led Aryeh Deri With 8 mandates and Torah Judaism in the lead Moshe Gafni with 7 mandates – remain unchanged.
At the bottom, where survival battles are fought, the seesaw continues. The work is led Marev Michaeli Strengthens and increases from 5 to 6 mandates, while Meretz is in charge Zhava Galleon You are left with 5. With the Minister of Finance, the chairman of Yisrael Beitenu Avigdor Lieberman, A red light should be lit because his party is weakening and dropping from 6 to 5 mandates.
The joint list for Hadash and Tal, led by Ayman Odeh and Ahmed Tibi, Pays the price of the split from Balad and drops from 6 to only 4 mandates and is thus equal to Ra’am led by Mansur Abbas, She also has 4 mandates.
Map of the blocks (photo: no)The redistribution of votes as a result of the fall of Balad strengthens the group of Netanyahu supporters and brings it to 60 mandates – which are still not enough for a decision – compared to 56 for his opponents.
Below the blocking percentage is the Jewish House in the lead Ayelet Shaked, which weakened from 2.2% to only 2%, which shows that the apology she asked from her supporters did not really help her chances.
Another sign of weakening Hedar Mokhtar, who apparently pays the price for her involvement in the story of the apartment she owns. The list of burning young people headed by her drops from 1.5% to only 0.7%.
The Economic Party led by Prof. Yaron Zelicha receives 0.5%, while the Economic Freedom Party led by Abir Kara and the Green Leaf List and Osrat al-Islamiyya register a figure of 0.0%.
In the last Knesset elections, the general voting rate was 67%, while among Israeli Arabs it was at a low of only 45%. According to the survey data, the overall voter turnout will be maintained and may even increase. However, the figure according to which only 38% of the Arabs are sure that they will go to vote and another 22% think that they will do so, shows a decrease in voting percentages in the sector towards only 40%, a trend that strengthens Netanyahu’s bloc and weakens his opponents.
715 members of the panel of Panel4All respondents participated in the survey to conduct research on the Internet. The survey was conducted on a representative sample of the adult population in the State of Israel aged 18 and over, both Jews and Arabs. The survey was conducted on September 21-22, 2022. The maximum sampling error in this survey is 3.7%.