2024-02-04 16:19:18
► How did Macky Sall justify the suspension of the election?
Senegal cannot “allow yourself a new crisis” after the deadly unrest of March 2021 and June 2023, explained President Macky Sall, Saturday February 3, announcing the postponement of the presidential election scheduled for February 25, a few hours before the official opening of the campaign on Sunday. According to him, the conflict which broke out between the Constitutional Council and the National Assembly after the final validation of twenty candidacies and the elimination of several dozen others, is likely to cause this feared crisis.
It was Karim Wade, the son of former president Abdoulaye Wade and one of the unsuccessful candidates, who ignited the dispute between the two jurisdictions. He questioned the integrity of two constitutional judges and called for the election to be postponed. The National Assembly approved the creation of a commission of inquiry into the conditions for validating candidacies. A decision which weakens the authority of the Constitutional Council, and therefore its legitimacy to supervise the presidential election.
In addition, one of the selected candidates allegedly lied about her nationality. So many reasons to think, for Macky Sall, that the risk of contesting the results of the election is high: this is why he decided to postpone it, without setting a new date.
► What is Macky Sall looking for?
The justifications provided by Macky Sall do not convince anyone beyond his closest circle. This decision appears more like a maneuver to keep control over Senegal. Among the elements that suggest this, the role played, against all expectations, by its deputies in the crisis between the National Assembly and the Constitutional Council. By supporting the creation of the commission of inquiry into the validation of candidacies, they created the conditions for the crisis which justifies, in the eyes of Macky Sall, the suspension of the vote.
Furthermore, his candidate, Prime Minister Amadou Ba, was not unanimous in the presidential coalition. The assurance that the latter, increasingly contested and uncharismatic, would be elected in the first round was crumbling day by day. While other candidates, like Bassirou Diomaye Faye, were gaining more and more traction.
Among the reasons which would push Macky Sall and his coalition to keep power are the expected profits from the gas and oil fields whose exploitation is due to begin in 2024. These resources would bring in 28 billion euros in thirty years. “This financial perspective, observed last summer Vincent Foucher, from the Africas in the World (LAM) research unit, is not likely to convince Macky Sall to give up power. » « Many political crises on the continent are linked to this desire to stay in power to keep the oil windfall. », also notes the Senegalese political scientist Serigne Bamba Gaye.
► How did the Senegalese react?
Astonishment and surprise prevailed at the announcement of the postponement. Astonishment quickly replaced by anger and criticism. ” Disappointment “, “insult in the face of the Senegalese”, “alliance games”… A large part of the population criticizes this postponement. “There is a clear desire to retain power. For the moment, without a new election date, it is not a postponement but a cancellation! » deplores Idrissa, a 37-year-old from Dakar.
Macky Sall’s decision also provoked an outcry among the opposition and civil society. “Mr Macky Sall armed himself with a battering ram to break down the ramparts of our democracy to give substance to his dream of eternity in power”, denounces Khalifa Sall, presidential candidate and former mayor of Dakar. The candidate Thierno Alassane Sall deplores a ” high treason “.
The term “institutional coup” has been brandished several times by observers of political life. The opposition citizen movement Y en A marre stressed that“once again, President Macky Sall has trampled on the fundamental charter of our country”. Despite the postponement, the opposition candidates decided to launch the electoral campaign this Sunday and called for citizen mobilization.
► Why is this worrying?
When the presidential election was suspended, the United States and the West African regional organization (ECOWAS) immediately expressed their concern or deep concern. And called, just like the European Union and France, the authorities to quickly set a new date for the vote.
This postponement takes place at a time when Senegalese society is fractured by a serious crisis of confidence in the political world. The country is also in the grip of a structural economic crisis which directly affects the population: more than half of the 15.4 million inhabitants live below the poverty line, a situation which pushes more and more Senegalese to migrate towards Europe at the risk of their lives.
Faced with Macky Sall’s coup, very strong reactions from the opposition and civil society movements are to be feared, in the form of demonstrations in all the main cities of Senegal, starting with Dakar and Ziguinchor, stronghold and stronghold of his main opponent Ousmane Sonko. With, as a result, excesses and looting, as in June 2023. We must also fear the reaction of the police, little known for their moderation.
This crisis is all the more flammable as the sub-regional context is very degraded. While Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger announced a week ago that they were leaving ECOWAS, the West African organization has never seemed so ghostly: its levers of action to promote a return to constitutional order in Senegal are almost zero.
With the coups d’état in Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, democracy has never appeared so fragile and weak in West Africa. A groundswell strongly encouraged by external powers like Russia.
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An unprecedented crisis
This is the first time since 1963 that a presidential election by direct universal suffrage has been postponed in Senegal.
Senegal has never experienced a coup d’étata rarity on the continent, while they have followed one another in recent years in West Africa.
Macky Sall was elected for the first time in 2012. Re-elected in 2019, he changed the Constitution to allow him to run for a new term.
On June 15, 2023, demonstrations in favor of opponent Ousmane Sonko left 15 dead.
July 2023, To general surprise and relief, Macky Sall renounces running for the 2024 presidential election.
February 3, 2024, he suspends indefinitely the presidential vote of February 25.
According to the electoral code, the decree setting the date of a new presidential election must be published no later than 80 days before the vote, which would lead to the end of April in the best case.
Macky Sall’s term expires on April 2.
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