The polls predict a close second round of the legislative elections, whose first round was marked yesterday by an abstention of 53%
Technical tie. The union of left-wing parties and the party of centrist President Emmanuel Macron and his allies tied yesterday in the first round of the French legislative elections, according to the first estimates of the electoral results. If these data are confirmed, and held next Sunday in the second and final round, the head of the Executive would be forced to agree in the National Assembly by failing to obtain an absolute majority and would even most likely be forced to make changes in his cabinet. Newly renovated.
The elections were marked by the irruption in the political scene of the New Popular, Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) of Jean-Luc Mélenchon and by a record abstention. Nupes -which brings together La France Insumisa, the Socialist Party, the Communist Party and Europe Ecology-The Greens (EELV)- would obtain 25.9% of the votes, according to estimates at press time. Ensemble (Together), the name by which Macron’s party and his allies present themselves, would get 25.6%, according to the Ifop-Fiducial results for the TF1 and LCI television networks.
Regrouping National (former National Front), led by the far-right leader Marine Le Pen, would obtain 19% of the vote. The Republicans (moderate right) and their allies would achieve 11.4% and the far-right Reconquista, 4.3%. Its leader, Éric Zemmour, has not even made the cut by not getting enough support in his constituency in the Var department.
As expected, the first round of the legislative elections, in which the 577 seats in the National Assembly are renewed, was marked by record abstention. According to initial estimates, it would reach 53%, almost ten points more than in 2012. The last presidential elections also saw an unprecedented abstention rate in the last half century, close to 29%, which highlights the existence of a credibility crisis policy in the neighboring country that drives millions of voters away from the polls.
On this occasion, 49 million citizens were called to the meeting. However, only 47% went to the polling stations. In 2017, abstention in the first round was 51.3% and in 2012, 42.8%.
In this round, 6,293 candidates were presented in 577 constituencies, the same number of seats that are at stake in these elections. In 2017, 7,877 attended. Among those who will not be on the ballot next Sunday is also the son of former ETA leader ‘Josu Ternera’, Egoitz Urrutikoetxea, who would not go through to the second round after reaching only 10% under the EH Bai brand in the Pyrenees department -Atlantics. The legislative ones are, in reality, 577 simultaneous elections in two rounds with an average of eleven candidates per constituency. We will have to wait for the final results to come out today to know the number of elected deputies. In order to enter the second round, candidates have to obtain at least 12.5% of the census votes in each constituency.
Although the union of left-wing parties would have won slightly in votes yesterday, according to projections, this does not necessarily mean that it will get the largest number of seats in the final round. The profile of the candidate, his local anchorage and the possible alliances of the parties can determine whether the seat is won by one party or another. Everything is still possible.
Mélenchon, who presents the legislative elections as “a third round” of the presidential elections against Macron, yesterday sought the ‘sorpasso’ of the left, which would have been of great benefit throughout this week, the last of the electoral race. The leader of La Francia Insumisa dreams of Nupes obtaining an absolute majority in the National Assembly. If he succeeded, which seems unlikely, it would cause cohabitation, the forced coexistence between a president and a prime minister of different political persuasions.
The president, hopeful
The leader of La Francia Insumisa (the Gallic Podemos) wants to be prime minister, but we will have to wait for the verdict of the polls next Sunday and the distribution of political forces in the National Assembly. And it will be necessary to see if, in the event that the left achieves an absolute majority in the hemicycle, Macron appoints him or not in office. The head of state has already said that no party can impose a name on him.
A month and a half after being re-elected president, Macron, who voted yesterday with his wife, Brigitte, in the spa town of Le Touquet, is confident that his party and its allies will manage to maintain an absolute majority in order to carry out their political program. They must get at least 289 seats. If he gets a relative majority, he would be forced to agree with other parties to approve the laws in the National Assembly.
According to Ifop projections, Macron could lose that parliamentary hegemony. His coalition would get between 275 and 310 seats; and the union of the left, between 175 and 205 seats. The Republicans would win between 45 and 66 seats, and the far-right Marine Le Pen’s party between 15 and 30 seats, which would allow her to have her own group.