Paris After his re-election, French President Emmanuel Macron will need to retain control of parliament to implement his policies for the next five years. But after Sunday’s first round of parliamentary elections, it’s far from certain that Macron’s center-alliance will be able to defend a majority in the National Assembly in a week’s crucial passage. The second largest economy in the EU could be heading for a domestic political deadlock.
Macron had asked his compatriots for a “strong and clear majority” in Parliament. However, the President’s charisma has waned significantly. In the presidential elections in April, many French voted only for his second term in order to prevent right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen from winning.
In the parliamentary elections, according to projections, the Macron camp is on a par nationwide with the New People’s Ecological and Social Union (Nupes), which the anti-capitalist EU critic Jean-Luc Mélenchon formed within a few weeks from the previously chronically divided French left. Socialists and Greens in France have also joined the alliance, although Mélenchon’s left-wing nationalist party, Indomitable France, stands for far more radical demands.
Mélenchon rejoiced on Sunday evening: “The President’s party is defeated.” Macron will not achieve a majority in the National Assembly. However, the jubilation could prove to be premature: the complicated procedure in the parliamentary elections makes it difficult to forecast the distribution of seats, and it is still possible for the presidential camp to succeed after the second round.
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Mélenchon’s Left Union and Macron’s Center Alliance each won around 25 percent of the vote. Le Pen’s Rassemblement National received around 19 percent, while the middle-class conservative Republicans got around 14 percent. Turnout hit a record low, with only about 47 percent of eligible French voters casting their ballots.
forecasts are difficult to make
A lot also depends on the turnout next Sunday and on who the supporters of the losing candidates will vote for. Pollsters also warn that they should still be cautious about their seat distribution forecasts: “If you change the bias of a political force from the first round by just one or two percentage points, it could result in a swing of 30 to 40 seats,” said Jérôme Fourquet from the Institut Ifop of the newspaper “Le Monde”.
At least 289 of the 577 seats are required for an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Despite all the uncertainty, it can be said that, unlike five years ago, the Macron camp will not get a comfortable majority. At that time, his alliance got 359 seats, now, according to estimates by pollsters, it could be between 255 and 310 seats. Pollsters put Mélenchon’s Left Alliance between 150 and 210 seats.
Without a majority, Macron would have to come to terms with the opposition and possibly restructure Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne’s government, which was only formed in May. A possible partner would be the Republicans. Mélenchon, meanwhile, is dreaming of becoming Prime Minister himself after a strong performance. This is unlikely – but as the strongest opposition force, the Left Alliance is likely to drive the President along on socio-political issues.
Macron had hardly spoken in the parliamentary election campaign. Instead, he made his Prime Minister promise to pay more attention to the issue of purchasing power, which the French are currently particularly concerned about in view of the high inflation. On Sunday evening, too, the President was initially silent on the result of his alliance.
Mélenchon, on the other hand, has mobilized in recent weeks and reinterpreted the vote in an idiosyncratic interpretation of the French constitution as the “third round of the presidential election”. The left-wing politician received almost 22 percent in April and thus missed entering the runoff election just behind le Pen.
Left speaks of “European disobedience”
The core demands of the Left Alliance include raising the minimum wage from 1,100 to 1,500 euros per month, introducing a minimum pension of 1,500 euros, lowering the retirement age from 62 to 60 and capping rents and prices for important everyday goods by the state. The Parisian think tank Institut Montaigne calculated the costs of the program and came up with a sum of more than 300 billion euros per year. The French budget deficit would be more than 10 percent of economic output by 2027, and the public debt would rise to 134 percent during this period.
The Maastricht criteria play no role in Mélenchon’s alliance anyway. According to the program, EU treaties and rules should not be respected “if they contradict the implementation of our program that has been legitimized by the people”. Mélenchon, who represents the national current on the French left, speaks of “European disobedience”. He sees France and other EU countries as victims of a “German diktat”, especially in economic and financial policy.
Again and again, Mélenchon’s statements reveal a questionable image of Germany. On the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Wall in November 2019, he described reunification as an “annexation” of the GDR by the Federal Republic. As a result, “outrageous social violence” was done to the East Germans, who actually did not want this type of merger.
Macron is now apparently pursuing the strategy of declaring the second round of the general election to be a vote between the political center and the left and right fringes. His party La République en Marche (The Republic in Motion) announced late Sunday evening that they wanted to form a “front against the extremes”. Not only Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, but also some candidates from Mélenchon’s left alliance are “extremist”.
More: “We will end hell”: Anti-capitalist Mélenchon puts pressure on Macron.