The problem with the waves is that they always end up withdrawing… Admittedly, La République en Marche (LRM) and its allies, united under the banner Ensemble!, represent a priori the only political force capable of forming a majority at the end of the second round of the legislative elections on 19 June. An undeniable victory on paper, even in the event of a simple relative majority. But the analysis of the results obtained by Emmanuel Macron’s troops during the first round, Sunday June 12, down sharply compared to 2017, sheds light on one of the characteristics of macronism: the weakness of its local anchorage and its catalog of headliners. Two assets that are supposed to help withstand episodes of heavy weather and anchor themselves over time.
Five years ago, the candidates for the head of state came out on top in 449 of the country’s 577 constituencies. Today, the wave of political novices that had swept over France no longer looks so proud: there are only 201 of them. Carried at the time by the dynamic created by the former Minister of the Economy of François Hollande, the representatives of the majority suffer, in the same way, the loss of attraction of the tenant of the Elysée, re-elected without breath, April 24.
The territorial translation of this fall symbolizes the changes in doctrine of Emmanuel Macron, whose base has shifted over the previous five-year term from center left to center right, at the risk of finding himself sitting on a wobbly chair.
In Brittany, Macronie is retreating
Thus, the areas of strength represented by the large metropolises have withered away in favor of the union of the left. In Paris, the candidates Together! only come first in six of the eighteen constituencies, against sixteen in 2017. The grand slam achieved in the first round, that year, out of the nine Lyon constituencies, also lived; the macronists are only in the lead in three of them.
Ditto in Toulouse, Bordeaux, Nantes, or even Strasbourg, where the majority is losing ground to the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes); so many cities where LRM failed to establish itself during the municipal elections. A phenomenon that the second round could qualify, insofar as the macronists have better reserves of potential votes than the Nupes.
It is nevertheless striking to note that regions formerly won over to the left no longer favor the troops of the majority in the same way. In 2017, the latter came first in 48 of the 50 constituencies of New Aquitaine. Today, this figure is reduced to 23 constituencies. In Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, LRM and MoDem candidates dominated in 23 of the 27 constituencies; this is now only the case for eight of them. It is not surprising that the departmental and regional elections have, in the meantime, ended in bitter failures for LRM.
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