2023-06-25 05:30:23
The latest elections have resulted in both a split vote and a blurring of political boundaries. How do you analyze this paradox?
In reality, there is a dissociation of the register of economic values and societal or cultural values. This gives a double entry table with, on the one hand, a greater or lesser degree of economic liberalism and, on the other hand, a greater or lesser degree of cultural liberalism. We get out of the situation where, based on the class vote, a relatively clear split could appear on the two grounds.
This article is taken from: “Comment va la France”: an inventory of the country in 40 maps
Today, the cards are scrambled, because the two registers interfere with each other. You have total liberalism, both economic and cultural: it is macronism. Economic liberalism and moral conservatism: this is the classic parliamentary right. Economic illiberalism and moral and cultural liberalism: this is La France insoumise (LFI) and the radicalized left. The double anti-liberalism, economic and cultural: it is the National Rally (RN). Behind these phenomena appears an incomplete transcription of the political offer, because the partisan offer no longer makes it possible to express this relative complexity.
Is the tripartition of the landscape observed during these elections destined to last?
The real question is to know what is the future of a macronism which is very similar to giscardism, that is to say which starts from the center and ends on the right. This tripartition is a system effect that is due to the collapse of the Socialist Party (PS) and the Republicans (LR). Macronism is the product of this. I would rather say that it is a moment, it is not made to last because we have high expectations. We can clearly see this with the pension reform, in terms of labor law and social democracy. The movement was formed around Macron, in a somewhat Bonapartist posture at the start. Today, we find him alone, like Napoleon. Its social base has shrunk, its electoral base too. Without a real structured party or relay in the territories, it will quickly collapse as soon as Macron leaves. The question is what will take the place of Macronism?
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You rank Macronism on the right. But where is the center of gravity of the right?
The center of gravity of the right is more and more on the side of the RN. It offers a political formula that combines authority and socialism, while Les Républicains have frozen in a neoliberalism that has no appeal. The RN is for authority, sovereignty, border control and the rehabilitation of the state. This center of gravity is a center of attraction. We see it with the debate on violence during demonstrations: over time, violence becomes the best friend of the right. The violent are kind of the useful idiots of the right.
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