Cyclone Freddy could hit the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday evening, February 21, already bruised, in 2022 at the same time, by cyclone Batsirai. According to Emmanuel Cloppet, director of Météo-France for the Indian Ocean, Freddy is a low pressure system with an intensity rarely seen in this area.
In Reunion, Freddy was called a “monster”. Why is this low pressure system so threatening?
The term “monster” is not overused. This is an atypical phenomenon with an intensity such as we rarely observe in the Indian Ocean. On Sunday February 19, it reached the final stage of a very intense tropical cyclone. It is very compact. In the center of the system, we recorded extreme winds with, on Sunday, before its passage 190 kilometers north of Reunion, average winds of 120 knots, that is to say around 220 km / h . With maximum gusts, near its center, of the order of 320 km / h.
“We have never observed winds of this range of values on the territory”
If the area where the most extreme conditions are concentrated had touched Reunion, it would have produced an apocalyptic result. We have never observed winds of this range of values on the territory. These winds would have been even higher on the heights of the island, in the event of a direct impact. Because they are always more important on the reliefs than on the coast. In this worst-case scenario, they could have approached 380 km/h on the summits. With this force, nothing resists. All the vegetation falls. This is the ultimate category of cyclones like Irma in the West Indies. It should be remembered that this system has touched Reunion and Mauritius, which are getting off lightly. Given the characteristics of this phenomenon, people are at risk of losing their lives in Madagascar.
In addition to its intensity, what are the other reasons that make it atypical?
Freddy passed north of Reunion at a speed that is very rarely seen: 20 knots, so around 40 km/h. This is more or less the maximum speed for the movement of a low pressure system. The positive consequence of this speed is that the duration of the degraded weather episode is short with less rain accumulation and fewer hours of strong winds. But the danger of this type of phenomenon is the sudden deterioration of meteorological conditions.
“The swell will break like a tsunami on the Malagasy coast with the risk of major submersion”
In addition, it originated about ten days ago northwest of the Australian coast and then crossed the Indian Ocean basin right through to Madagascar. The cyclone will come out of the Mozambique Channel. It will fall on very warm waters and intensify. It is expected to hit Mozambique on Friday. Inhabited lands will still be hit. Added to this is the fact that it was a tropical cyclone throughout its journey. It’s totally unprecedented. There is no precedent for such a journey in the satellite era and since we have databases.
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