2024-07-23 12:23:16
Las presidential election of Venezuela was, five days after his feast, the problem of local predictions. When Nicolás Maduro warned that personal defeat in the elections would cause him “blood”your Brazilian counterpart, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silvafelt nothing more than perplexity. “The word scares me”, said. Lula has followed events in his neighboring country closely, to the point where he has spoken twice with Maduro. The terms of those communications were disclosed to the foreign press. “If you want to contribute to solving the problem of Growth of Venezuela and the return of those who left, have to respect the democratic process“He told him. Lula, who before becoming president failed in three subsequent attempts, insisted: “The loser gets a bath of votes, not a bath of blood”. He added: “Maduro has to learn that when he wins he stays, and when he loses he leaves and is preparing for other elections.
Lula’s concern is such that, in addition to the two observers that Brazil’s Electoral Justice will send, it is decided that his former Foreign Minister and current adviser on international affairs, Celso Amorim, will arrive in Caracas. “How can we not respect the results that we will win”responded the President of the National Assembly, Jorge Rodríguez, and said that the opposition is preparing to face the verdict of the elections on Sunday.
What will happen on Sunday?
At this point, the fight has threatened to break out on Sunday night. crisis by lack of recognition of the rival’s long. The first candidates accused each other. The concern, for now, has many analysts looking the other way fifteen. When on July 17, Maduro also spoke about a “Civil war“In the famous area of Caracas, he did nothing but remember that The political crisis also affects the military in its character as a de facto co-government and management and control change of different economic variables, both public and covered in opacity.
To clear the doubts, the President remembers that Military units are “deepening Chavista” and they will not accept that the opposition reached the Miraflores Palace by election. “I ask, simply to analyze the scenarios, what would happen in Venezuela if the oligarchy of Caracas came to political power by accident? (…)What will happen to all the social, cultural, political, spiritual, moral and military power that the revolution has?“. Speaking in the state of Portuguesa, Maduro made scenarios. “Are there new 27 February? Could there be a new February 4? Can there be a great April again? The candidate of the United Socialist Party (PSUV) referred to the ‘Caracazo’, as a social outbreak against the democratic president of the society, Carlos Andrés Pérez, and the following The revolution of Hugo Chavez against that Government.
Military rank
Them Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB) has some 300,000 members, according to data from 2023. Analysts not only question the behavior of those who wear clothes in the elections, but also of their families. The Minister of Defense, General Vladimir Padrino López has just confirmed the mission The Carter Company who will observe the military elections will be a ensuring the peaceful development of conflict. Father López himself did not avoid remembering, within the framework of the institutional memory, that the military did not support the artists in these defining hours. “On July 28, this beautiful Soldier, as bright as he is here, will take to the streets. Have some guns to defend order, protect the people in these elections. And on the other hand, our power, our civic responsibility, our political right to use the election. And there, dear brothers, we will have to close the dilemma of returning to colonialism, to surrender, to pro-imperialism or to be on the side of the rebels, brave, courageous, Bolivarian, traditional anti-imperialist.”
Padrino López had grown up when, in 2002, the coup attempt against Chávez took place. He led the command of the Bolívar Battalion, a unit from Fuerte Tiuna, in Caracas, that refused to join the conspiracy against the president of the time. His loyalty to Chavez It earned him a meteoric rise. For 12 years he has been one of the leaders of parliament. His alliance with Maduro has been strengthened by reaching the defense portfolio. A president promoted more than 100 generals, far the vertical way that, experts say, controls with Padrino López. The minister not only launched attacks on his members with demands for electoral loyalty. The press launched a series of ministerial radiograms so that the military, of all ranks, could download the Bolivarian Communications and Information System (Siscom) application on their phones where they must report how many Maduro voters they received. Another app forces them to Add data from your social networks.
It is not only Maduro and Padrino López who have strange hypotheses about what could happen on the night of July 28. The governor of the state of Tachira, which is located on the border of Colombia, a former police officer, Freddy Bernal, warned of the risk of accusations by those who promote opposition voting Edmundo González Urrutia report fraud and fire situations of violence. Unlike the president and the minister, he knows as a myth that the opposition can win. However, “he will not last a year” in Miraflores Palace because the PSUV will have under its control 20 governors, 220 mayoralties, the National Assembly and, especially, the Military. “They will have to resign and run, but it is a nightmare that will not happen in Venezuela.”
distant assumptions
On the night of October 5, 1988, the Chilean assassin Augusto Pinochet He refused to accept his defeat in the plebiscite with which he sought to sustain himself. The military junta collapsed. General Fernando Mattei knew that Pinochet was planning it “Self-Government” but not enough internal support. “It was then that the admiral (Toribio Merino) and (the general director of the Carabineros, Rodolfo) Stange, let him know that, whatever the result, the law has to be respected,” Mattehi revealed in 2003. It is possible that an event . of the nature of the reconstruction in Caracas is not accepted by the most intelligent political analyst. The Nicaraguan experience doesn’t seem to be helping either. In 1990, after the defeat of Sandinismo. Humberto Ortega He remained at the head of the Army for many years as protection from a political coup. No one saw Padrino López in the same place.
At this point, and despite the organizational crisis, González Urrutia made an important appeal to the members of FANB. The military, which remembers the candidate of the Democratic Unity Platform (PUD), must be “special” professional and therefore “non-military” because they are “in the exclusive service of the State and in no case in the service of any person or political group.”
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