Magomed Ankalaev faces Bogdan Guskov in a light heavyweight main event at UFC Fight Night on Saturday, July 25, 2026, at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. The bout features former champion Ankalaev seeking a rebound after a title loss, while Guskov enters as a short-notice replacement for the injured Khalil Rountree Jr.
The UFC’s 23rd visit to Abu Dhabi centers on a high-stakes clash between the No. 2 ranked Magomed Ankalaev and the No. 9 ranked Bogdan Guskov. This matchup was not the original plan; Guskov stepped in just two weeks before the event after Khalil Rountree Jr. was forced out due to injury, according to reporting from Yahoo Sports.
Ankalaev’s Path Back to the Title
Ankalaev enters the Octagon with a professional record of 21-2-1. His recent momentum hit a wall in October 2025, when he suffered a first-round TKO loss to Alex Pereira, CBS Sports reported. That defeat ended a dominant stretch where Ankalaev went unbeaten in 14 Octagon appearances, the second-longest such streak in the history of the UFC light heavyweight division.
The 34-year-old southpaw brings a diverse toolkit to the Etihad Arena. He is a former UFC light heavyweight champion and a Greco-Roman wrestling champion of Dagestan. Analysis from Cincinnati.com highlights his proficiency in the clinch and his use of crosses and hooks.
Bogdan Guskov’s Short-Notice Opportunity
Bogdan Guskov, 33, is fighting to break into the 205-pound title picture. He holds an overall professional record of 18-3-1, with 15 of those wins coming via knockout.
Guskov’s style is characterized by aggressive pace and pressure and deceptive boxing ability
, as detailed by Cincinnati.com. While he is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt, analysts note that his risk management is fair. However, his ground-and-pound remains a primary weapon when he secures a top position.
Betting Odds and Market Probabilities
The markets show a significant lean toward the former champion. DraftKings Sportsbook lists Ankalaev as a -535 favorite, meaning a bettor must risk $535 to win $100, while Guskov sits at +400, according to CBS Sports. The over/under for total rounds is set at 2.5.
| Outcome | Polymarket Probability | Equivalent Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ankalaev over Guskov | 82% | -456 |
| Guskov over Ankalaev | 19% | +426 |
| Fight not going the distance | N/A |
Projected Purses and Financial Stakes
The financial gap between the two competitors reflects their differing statuses within the promotion. According to analyst projections from khelnow.com, Ankalaev’s guaranteed base pay for this event is projected. This is a step down from his title defense at UFC 320, where he reportedly banked around $2.25 million including bonuses and pay-per-view shares.
Guskov’s projected base pay is significantly lower, estimated in the $53,000 to $55,000 range. However, a victory over a former champion would likely trigger a substantial bonus check. For comparison, Guskov’s largest previous payday was approximately $86,000 at UFC 311.
Full Fight Card and Results
The event features a mix of established names and rising contenders. While the main event is the focal point, the card saw some adjustments, including the cancellation of the welterweight bout between Islam Dulatov and Wellington Turman due to a Dulatov illness, as reported by Yahoo Sports.
- Nurullo Aliev defeated Mike Davis via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27).
- Main Card Pairings: Steve Erceg vs. Ramazonbek Temirov; Magomed Zaynukov vs. Damian Rzepecki; Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune; and Abubakar Vagaev vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev.
The results from the preliminary card indicate a strong wrestling presence, with Yahoo UK noting Aliev’s wrestling-heavy attack
during his victory over Davis.
The outcome of the Ankalaev-Guskov fight will dictate the immediate future of the light heavyweight division. For Ankalaev, a win is a mandatory step toward reclaiming the title he lost in October. For Guskov, the reward is a potential leap into the top five. The critical uncertainty remains whether Guskov’s short-notice preparation can overcome Ankalaev’s wrestling pedigree and championship experience.
