We are headed into Sunday night, the last evening that players can drop into Tau Ceti for Marathon runs after its server slam launched. The numbers are in, impressions have formed and I wanted to take a step back and analyze everything we’ve seen, from data to “vibes,” and what that may mean heading into next week’s actual launch.
Revenue – From what I can tell, Marathon seems like it may be a game that skews more toward a PC player population than console, though that remains to be officially seen. Marathon managed to crawl up to #3 in pre-sales on Steam in the US before the server slam even started. It did drop a decent way for a time after the event launched, but looking now on Sunday at the tail end of this, it’s back to being #4 behind only the smash-hit Resident Evil Requiem, Counter-Strike 2, and its rival ARC Raiders. That’s a solid result.
Playercount – The topped out at 143,000 concurrents, lower than ARC’s 190,000 open alpha numbers, which is not a great shock. It did shed players rapidly, however, losing 40% by day two, and going down each day since to end at a bit lower than half its peak near the end here. I think this is due to two main reasons, one being “bounce,” as players tried it, didn’t like it, and moved on. The other thing to consider is that we are less than a week from launch, and even those who are liking it don’t want to sink a bunch more time into a game that’s about to erase all its faction progress and loot. But I think the former reason is more prevelant than the latter.
Streamers – I’d argue this is split between two groups, one being the “big” shooter streamers and those closer to the Bungie circle. A huge number of big streamers did play Marathon, and it racked up hundreds of thousands of concurrent Twitch views that first day or so. But by the end, few decided to stick with it for the weekend, and some vocally stated their disdain for it, even after getting it a pretty lengthy go. TheBurntPeanut, the biggest shooter streamer at the moment, did chastise people for immediately jumping on the hate bandwagon, but he, too, went back to ARC Raiders after not that long. I think it’s going to be a very tough sell to convert these heavy hitters and their audiences to Marathon for the long term, which, yes, like it or not, can influence sales and interest.
However, the other group of streamers that I’m more familiar with, the “Destiny guys,” have almost all really embraced Marathon. Loads have stuck with the game all weekend, and it very much seems like it’s going to be their next main title after launch. It is hard to understate just how fully dead Destiny 2 is at the moment, with zero new content, so this is not a huge surprise, but this does track with what I predicted, that Bungie fans would embrace this, and I’m seeing the PvP folks, long starved of Destiny content, go the hardest out of anyone here.
Players – It’s a range, and things have shifted over the course of the weekend. The server slam launch did not spawn a big wave of “actually I love this!” among most players posting about it. It was clear that many hit the bounce phase quickly, finding the game unfun or exhausted by its UI or their eyes hurting from its bright colors.
By the end of the weekend, most of the complainers just…aren’t playing anymore, and it’s those that have stuck around who are largely positive about it. I’m seeing more and more fun clips of wacky PvE or intense PvP encounters, and a general sentiment of “the more I stuck with it, the more I liked it” as it starts to click with many people.
Conversion – This is the big question, and one we don’t yet have an answer to, but I’m at least a little concerned. This does not strike me as a game that’s about to have an ARC Raiders moment where its launch playercount surges way beyond what its free tests showed. Losing half its players in a day does not tell me that it’s going to stay at that original peak for paid conversion. And asking $40 up from free is a tough sell. That said, it has remained a top seller on at least one platform, so that’s an indicator that it could work out better than it might otherwise.
The mystery here is what Sony and Bungie are trying to hit. Say two-thirds of the server slam people show up and pay. Is that good? Will the game add or drop players a week or a month from now? What will word of mouth be? Can Marathon be a “hit” if it condenses down to something like a consistent 20,000 concurrent playercount? I doubt that’s a win. 50,000? 100,000? If those numbers really do skew that high for milestones, from this weekend, I am not convinced it can get to that level and sustain it, based on what I’ve seen so far. Perhaps the additional content will be a big boost, but much of it, like the on-ship “raid,” is going to be for the top, top-tier of players alone.
I think this weekend went perhaps a touch better than expected, but I also don’t think it has shown us a hurricane of a hit about to slam into the market. I don’t think ARC needed to be the measuring stick, a really unfair high-water mark to demand, but it does need to put up some minimums, and maintain them. I’m a little unsure whether goals will be met, though, no, we are not talking anything like a Concord/Highguard shutdown situation here. Absolutely not. Well, probably not.
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