Marine drone attack on the Russian ship “Ivan Khurs” in the Black Sea: possible sabotage and geopolitical implications. – VP News – ‘no talking’

2023-05-27 18:59:53

The Russian military reconnaissance ship, “Ivan Khurs”, of project 18280, was attacked by marine drones in the Black Sea. The attack could be linked to the Turkish elections or to the destabilization desired by the Ukrainian leadership, now prone to sabotage similar to acts of terrorism. This attack represents an indirect attack on Turkey, a NATO member, and could also involve Hungary, with strong evidence of a possible Turkishstream target.
The following article examines the situation and is from the US source Sonar21:

LYesterday three Western-supplied drones attacked a Russian ship guarding the Turkstream pipeline. Russia claims they were all destroyed, but there is video suggesting one hit the Russian ship. This attack is the latest in a series of events over the past three weeks in which Ukraine has been striking targets in Russia with US- and British-supplied weapons. In addition to this maritime drone strike, Ukraine has done the following:

• A cross-border incursion into the Belgorod region with US-supplied vehicles and weapons. The attack was repulsed with heavy losses on the Ukrainian side.
• Sporadic launch of artillery and himars attacks against Russian civilian towns along the border
• A drone attack on the Kremlin.
• The use of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles to strike targets in Russia.

None of these attacks are a “game changer” in terms of the strategic framework, sThey are fueling a growing tide of anger in Russia that will likely increase pressure for a stronger military response. The maritime attack on the Russian vessel guarding the Turkstream pipeline is particularly puzzling because it is indirectly an attack on a NATO member (namely, Turkey). Just what NATO needs, alienating NATO member with second largest NATO army.

maritime drone

The media are ignoring the possibility that it was sanctioned by the US or the UK and are suggesting that it was carried out by Ukraine without consulting its NATO partners. However, my new friend, Steve Bryen posted on Asia Times an excellent article on the Turkstream pipeline incident explaining why this was not a unilateral Ukrainian operation:

There are a number of disturbing facts about this operation.

The first is that the Ukrainians were preparing to attack theoleodotto Turkstream and they needed to knock out the Russian ship helping to protect it. Turkstream moves natural gas with an annual capacity of 31.5 billion cubic meters and consists of two 930-kilometer offshore lines and two separate 142-kilometre (88.2-mile) long and 70-kilometre onshore lines.

One of the Russian gas customers of this pipeline is Hungary. The destruction of Turkstream it would deal a heavy blow to Hungary and that could lead to an upheaval of government in that country. Hungary, under Viktor Orbán, is viewed by Washington as pro-Russian. . . .

The Ukrainians carried out this operation in the Bosphorus, about 80 miles from the Turkish mainland. It is reasonable to say that this attack was not only against the Russians, but was the first part of an attack on a NATO ally, Turkey and other gas consumers, especially Hungary, also a NATO ally.

The long distance from Ukraine proper suggests that Ukraine would need information in real time to locate the Russian ship and target it.

Here comes the creepy part. An unmanned surveillance aircraft was reportedly in the vicinity of this incident RQ-4 US. The RQ-4 could have provided real-time targeting information and could also have transmitted the same information to the Ukrainian unmanned naval drone. While there is no solid evidence that RQ-4 played a role, how else could Ukraine have handled this operation?

While the United States and the rest of NATO pretend to ignore the attack, the key fact is that Ukraine needed target data that only NATO intelligence sources could provide. This means that the United States played a direct role in this attack. Adding this incident to the cross-border incursion into the Belgorod region where US-supplied vehicles carried out the attack, Russia can only conclude that the US will be more involved in the war against Russia.

This marks a dangerous escalation in the war and Russia is unlikely to consider it insignificant. In addition to the sea drone strike, two US B-1 bombers in the Baltic flew close to Russian airspace and were intercepted by Russian fighter jets. Add to this the recent reversal by Biden who greenlighted the sending of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine and the late 2022 deployment of elements of the 101 and 82 airborne units to Poland and Romania, respectively. Those troops are still there.

Russia is also closely watching the upcoming NATO exercise, Air Defender 23 :

Air Defender 23 will be the most significant military exercise ever carried out over European skies. The event will take place from 12 to 23 June, involving the air forces of 25 nations.

In particular, Air Defender 23 it will represent the largest air force deployment exercise in the history of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, commonly known as NATO. The unprecedented event will involve up to 10,000 exercise participants who will train their flying skills with approximately 220 aircraft. The military exercise will take place in European airspace and under the command of the German Air Force, or Luftwaffe.

While NATO may pretend this is just a routine exercise, a “training” operation of this size and scale against the backdrop of rising tensions in the region is like lighting a match in a gasoline storage tank. The possibility that the war in Ukraine will spill over into a full-blown conflict with NATO increases.

It seems that the US is ready to take more desperate and reckless actions in the wake of the Ukrainian defeat at Bakhmut. There are no conciliatory gestures coming from Washington. On the contrary: rhetoric and more bellicose actions.

Russia, for its part, is not sitting on its hands. In the early hours of Friday, the TG channels Ukrainians reported Geranium UAV and aerial bomber strikes in the Sumy, Chernigov and Zapozhye regions, as well as in the Dnepropetrovsk region. Explosions were also reported in Kupyanskiy district of Kharkov region tonight. Yesterday, Russia struck the Karlovskoye Reservoir dam, which is located 40 km northwest of Donetsk and is a key supply route for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donetsk region. This makes it more difficult for Ukraine to supply its forces on the east side of the Volcha River and creates more obstacles Ukraine must overcome if it hopes to launch a successful counter-offensive.

It appears that Russia’s three-week bombing campaign – using strategic bombers – is taking a toll on the forces Ukraine has assembled for their long-awaited counter-offensive. Ukrainian losses are making it difficult to muster the manpower and firepower needed to launch and sustain an offensive operation beyond a few days. We will know for sure in the coming weeks.

I’ll say it simply: We are living in the most dangerous period in world history since the start of WWII. The United States shows no sign of backing down from its efforts to continue the war in Ukraine in the futile hope of weakening Russia. And Russia is stepping up its operations to decimate Ukraine’s military capabilities. This appears to be a toxic recipe for a horrendous collision. I hope I’m wrong.

source Sonar21::