What is the sound of a “Victory Mood” ? At the Rassemblement national (RN), it resembles a techno mix where we hear Marine Le Pen promise in a martial tone to “Give France back to France!” » Friday 1is April, the party released the tape after the far-right candidate gloated over“a hope that has arisen”. In Stiring-Wendel (Moselle), Jordan Bardella pretended to give the opposing camp a point: “Macronie is right to say that Marine can win this presidential election. »
A fortnight that the figures of the majority are worried, raising their voices, of a possible victory for the far right. “Of course, Marine Le Pen can win”warned the former head of government Edouard Philippe, on March 31 in The Parisiana week after Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin. “Marine Le Pen has draped herself in a cape of banality to hide what she is”added the president of the group La République en Marche (LRM) to the National Assembly Christophe Castaner, Sunday on RMC, before admitting: “We didn’t do everything well. »
In a possible second round, Marine Le Pen is measured between 45% and 47% of the voting intentions, according to the institutes. A record level. In 2017, the polls for the same period gave him 10 points less. More unprecedented, Marine Le Pen far exceeds all the other contenders tested in the second round. At “effective voting” on the left that Jean-Luc Mélenchon wishes to embody, « vote vital » with which Eric Zemmour is content, the far-right candidate now presents herself as an unusual and dangerous alternation vote.
“A real game”
New for 2022, it benefits from a progression that does not crumble. “It’s a break from her last two campaigns, she has never experienced any presidential momentum in the last few weeks”, notes Frédéric Dabi, deputy general manager of the IFOP. In 2017, the National Front candidate suffered a setback a month before the first round; in 2012, it had declined by the end of March. “Another new element: she is neck and neck with the outgoing president in pivotal categories, where a real match is played”completes Frédéric Dabi, citing the 50-64 and 25-34 year olds or private sector employees.
For the first time, Marine Le Pen also has voice reserves. She sees the second round as a “new election”, where Eric Zemmour’s postponement of votes and the demobilization of the left will be played out, in a strategy of putting the Republican front to sleep, which has been thought of for a long time. According to Ipsos, she would benefit from eight voters out of ten from her far-right rival, while half of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters declared, at the end of March, that they wanted to abstain from voting if they had to choose between her and Emanuel Macron.
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