Revised nuclear doctrine and threatened west with IRBM capable of nuclear attack
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been called a ‘master of deception tactics’. This is why Putin is nicknamed ‘Punocchio.’ punocchio is a combination of Putin and Pinocchio.
Putin with Maskirovka
Putin has told many lies like Pinocchio. A representative example is the invasion of Ukraine. Before invading ukraine on February 24, 2022 (local time), Putin said things like, “There is absolutely no intention to attack,” “The troops deployed to the border area are for training,” and “We only want security and peace.” However, this was a tactic to deceive the West, including Ukraine and the United States. Timothy Snyder, a history professor at Yale University, defined Putin’s behavior as a typical ‘maskirovka’.Maskirovka refers to deception that deceives the opponent and leads to a wrong decision. Putin served as an officer in the former Soviet intelligence agency, the State Security Committee (KGB), from 1975 to 1991, and served as a lieutenant colonel. In the past, he was dispatched to East Germany and worked as a spy.Putin can be seen as having maskirovka ingrained in him.
Even when Russia attacked Ukraine with a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) on November 21, Putin used deception tactics to maximize fear not only in ukraine but also in the West. This is why Ukraine and Western countries mistakenly believed that Russia attacked with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). A few days before the missile attack, Russian intelligence agencies leaked fake facts that they would attack Ukraine with an ICBM. The pro-government Russian daily newspaper moskovsky Komsomolets (MK) reported that Russia had launched an attack in retaliation for Ukraine’s attack on the 1046th Arsenal in Karatsev, Bryansk Region, with ATACMS surface-to-surface missiles provided by the United States. It was also reported that there were rumors going around that there would be an ICBM attack.Accordingly,Western countries,including the United States,urgently temporarily closed their embassies and ordered evacuation in preparation for a major air raid on the Ukrainian capital,Kiev. Ukraine and Western countries even suspected that Russia’s mobilization of ICBMs was an intention to use nuclear weapons.In particular, Ukrainian media reported that the missile in question was an ICBM called RS-26 Rubez, citing an declaration from the country’s air force immediately after the Russian attack. However, the Russian Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense refused to even confirm whether the ICBM was launched.
When the fear reached its peak, Putin appeared on Russian state TV’s Rossiya 1 channel to address the public and appeared relaxed. He said, “We launched the hypersonic IRBM as a response to the West allowing Ukraine to attack the Russian mainland with advanced missiles such as ATACMS.” “We named this missile currently being tested ‘Oreshnik,’” Putin said, adding, “This missile is equipped with a conventional warhead
Russia takes out ‘Hazel missile’
Western military experts view the Oreshnik missile as an IRBM with a range of 3,000 to 5,500 km. In particular, this missile attracted attention as it was equipped with a ‘multiple warhead individual target re-entry vehicle (MIRV)’. MIRV refers to multiple warheads hitting individual targets as the missile re-enters the atmosphere. This is why the missile was given the name Oreshnik, meaning hazel tree. More importantly, this missile can be equipped with both nuclear and conventional warheads. “Russia’s use of this type of missile is tantamount to expanding the nuclear threat,” said Tom Karako, director of the missile defense project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S. think tank. “It is indeed a context that continues with.”
Russia’s moves can be seen as a combination of deception and madman tactics against the West, including the United States. On November 17, U.S. President Joe Biden allowed Ukraine to strike targets on the Russian mainland with ATACMS missiles. Ukraine has requested permission to attack military facilities on the Russian mainland with missiles provided by the United States, but the United States has refused this request out of concern for escalation of war.
The ATACMS missile has a speed of Mach 3 (3672 km/h), a length of 4 m, a diameter of 600 mm, and a range of about 300 km. The missile warhead contains about 900 submunitions, so just one shot can devastate an area the size of 3 to 4 soccer fields. In addition, it can be launched from a HIMARS (High-speed Mobile Artillery Rocket System) launcher, making it possible to hit moving targets. Thanks to its powerful destructive power, ATACMS has been called a ‘game changer.’
American media analyzed that President Biden changed his position because he judged that the risk of war expansion due to North Korea’s participation in the war was as serious as the threat of Russia’s nuclear use. President Biden, who is two months away from leaving office, has made his last move by putting the brakes on the North Korean-Russian joint forces’ efforts to “retake Kursk.” US President-elect Donald Trump is expected to mediate negotiations to end the Russian-Russian war after taking office. President biden’s actions are expected to work in the direction of increasing Ukraine’s negotiating power
The American New York Times (NYT) said, “A meaningful policy shift has taken place ahead of President-elect Trump’s inauguration.” “President Biden hopes to exchange Ukraine’s territory lost to Russia and Russian territory occupied by Ukraine,but Russia “We were concerned that if Kursk was recaptured,the Russian territory to be exchanged might disappear,” he pointed out.
Threats to “not commit World War III”
Putin is responding with his unique ‘crazy tactics’. Crazy tactics refer to the strategy used by former U.S. President Richard Nixon to end the Vietnam War.former President Nixon issued a nuclear war warning to US troops stationed around the world and then made the Soviet union, which supported north Vietnam, tremble with fear by saying, “When I get angry, I cannot control myself and can press the nuclear button.” Former President Nixon intentionally portrayed himself as an impulsive and irrational person and a maniac who could start a nuclear war at any time by getting angry over small things. Putin has also used crazy tactics, such as when the West, including the United States, provides large-scale support to Ukraine or imposes sanctions on Ukraine, and when the war situation is unfavorable, he pulls out the nuclear card and threatens it.
In fact, on November 19, Putin signed an executive order revising nuclear doctrine in response to President Biden’s permitting Ukraine’s missile attack on the Russian mainland. The contents are largely divided into two parts. First, even if it is not a nuclear state, if it attacks russia with the support of a nuclear state, it will be considered a joint attack by both countries and both countries can retaliate with nuclear weapons. The existing nuclear doctrine targeted only warring parties possessing nuclear weapons, but the revised nuclear doctrine expanded the targets of nuclear attacks. Second, the use of nuclear weapons will be considered if there is reliable information that a missile, aircraft, or unmanned aerial vehicle (drone) attack against Russia and its allies, or that this attack will be carried out on a large scale. The existing nuclear doctrine permitted nuclear retaliation only in cases where ‘national existence is threatened,’ such as when Russia is attacked by a nuclear weapon or when Moscow is threatened by enemy ground forces in a full-scale war, but the revised nuclear doctrine does not specify the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons. greatly alleviated. With this revision,Russia will now be able to use nuclear weapons if it is indeed judged that the scale of damage will be significant through air strikes using missiles and drones.
Putin’s intention is that he will be willing to start World War III if President-elect Trump continues to support Ukraine like President Biden. “If the next American leader continues to add fuel to the fire between russia and Ukraine, it will be a road to hell,” said Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian National Security Council and a close associate of Putin. “This will really open the road to World War III.” “He warned.Attention is focused on the direction of putin’s ’Pinocchio and madman’ actions.
《This article Weekly Donga It was published in issue 1467》
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What are the potential consequences of Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine for global security?
Ll only escalate the conflict further.” The revised nuclear doctrine, coupled with the rhetoric from Russian officials, underscores a persistent threat, suggesting that Russia is willing to employ nuclear capabilities in response to perceived threats, even if such threats do not involve a direct nuclear attack.
As tensions continue to escalate, the international community remains on high alert, pressing for diplomatic solutions while grappling with the possibility of a nuclear confrontation. The potential for miscommunication or miscalculation between nuclear powers adds an additional layer of complexity to an already volatile situation.
In this precarious environment, the role of global leaders, including those in the United States and europe, will be crucial in navigating the paths toward de-escalation and preventing further military aggression. The stakes are high, and the ramifications of continued escalation could have dire consequences not only for Ukraine and Russia, but for global security as a whole.