The leader of the Brothers of Italy, Giorgia Meloni, is the favorite to win the elections on September 25. /
The right-wing bloc is close to 50% in voting intention and, if it stays that way, it could promote a constitutional reform
The Italian right-wing bloc continues to widen its lead in the polls ahead of the general elections on September 25. The coalition formed by the Brothers of Italy, led by Giorgia Meloni; The League, by Matteo Salvini; and Forza Italia, of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, is close to 50% in voting intentions and leads the fragmented left-wing bloc by 20 points.
The latest survey by the Tecne institute, cited by the ‘Bloomberg’ media, gives 49.8% of the votes to the block led by Meloni compared to 30% of the left-wing coalition led by the social-democratic Democratic Party of also former Prime Minister Enrico Letta. For its part, the Five Star Movement (M5E), which was the party with the most votes in 2018, would barely exceed 10% of the vote. This confirms the trend already reflected in previous surveys.
A resounding victory for Meloni’s bloc could unleash a wave of support in Parliament and the possibility of the alliance winning a two-thirds majority, at which point the right could promote a constitutional reform, as the leader of the Brothers of Italy.
The centre-left is highly fragmented, while the M5E has sunk in the polls
Meloni has argued that this reform would aim to shore up a “fragile and unstable” political system, he explained to the British weekly ‘The Spectator’, marked by constant changes of government (there have been 67 Executives in 76 years, and only Berlusconi has endured more two years as prime minister so far this century). Meloni has hinted at the possibility of increasing the powers of the Prime Minister or facilitating the direct election of the President of the Republic.
Italian democracy rests on the pillar of a perfect bicameral system, a shield that was born to prevent the rise of fascism again. The Senate and the Congress of Deputies have the same weight in the elaboration of laws, which subtracts power from the Executive.
Former President Medvedev called on Europeans to “punish” their “stupid governments” at the polls
fear of Russian interference
Another of the guarantees established by the Italian Constitution, which dates back to 1948, is the electoral law. The system, known as Rosatellum, establishes that two thirds of the deputies are elected proportionally, while the remaining third is distributed according to the majority vote in single-member constituencies, in the English style. That is, whoever wins by one vote takes the seat. This system rewards coalitions, since it is easier to get one more ballot than the rival if the parties appear in coalition, as the right-wing formations will do in September.
The ghost of the Kremlin
One of the elements that will mark – it is already doing so – the campaign will be the position with respect to Russia of the different parties. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has altered the Italian political map. Mario Draghi, who resigned in July, was one of the European leaders who most vehemently supported Ukraine. His fall was linked to tensions with the M5E, a government partner, and his position against sending weapons to kyiv.
On the right, La Liga is being investigated for allegedly receiving funding from the Kremlin for the 2019 European elections; Salvini is a self-confessed admirer of Putin; and Berlusconi is a personal friend of the Russian leader. A few days ago, the newspaper ‘La Stampa’ published a conversation between an official from the Russian Embassy in Rome and a senior member of La Liga in which, a month before Draghi’s fall, he asked if his party would support the former president of the European Central Bank.
In this context, the Italian press and various political leaders have shown their concern about possible interference by the Kremlin. Former Russian President Dmitri Medvedev yesterday urged “Europeans” to “punish” their “stupid governments” at the polls.