2023-10-05 06:45:42
Armenia distances itself. By ratifying the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC) on Tuesday, the Armenian Parliament further widened the gap that now separates Yerevan from Moscow. For Russia, Armenia’s accession to the ICC is, in fact, a snub. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov – who had already denounced Yerevan’s “extremely hostile” decisions – criticized an “erroneous” choice.
In March, the Court issued an arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin for the “deportation” of Ukrainian children to Russia. A “war crime” according to her. This mandate prohibits the Russian president from traveling to countries that have ratified the status, under penalty of being arrested there – a resolution which notably prevented him from attending the Brics summit in Johannesburg in August.
“Putin, who imagined himself guarantor of Armenia’s security, now finds himself in the dock. There is a total reversal of the relationship between the two countries which greatly annoys Russia,” analyzes the deputy director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris), Didier Billion, to Le Parisien. “Not all relationships are going to be broken, however,” he anticipates. Political and diplomatic relations will not cease, even if they deteriorate.”
Several months of tension
This reconfiguration of relations between the two countries actually results from several months of tension. Yerevan had openly criticized the inaction of the 2,000 Russian soldiers deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh after the previous conflict, who did not prevent Azerbaijan from establishing a blockade in the Lachin corridor – the only road axis which connects the enclave to Armenia – last December.
Video. Nagorno-Karabakh: more than 66,000 people flee the territory, Armenia denounces “ethnic cleansing”
After the debacle of September 20, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian also attacked the “inefficiency” of the “external security systems” in which his country is involved. A thinly veiled allusion to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance led by Russia, of which Armenia is a part. Yerevan had already refused in January to join its military maneuvers. Worse, it had announced the organization of joint exercises with the United States on its territory in September. “It is clear that holding such exercises does not stabilize the situation in the region, nor does it strengthen an atmosphere of mutual trust,” reacted Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson, expressing “concerns”.
On a wire
After Armenia’s accession to the ICC, the break with Russia now seems complete. “The big question now is who can replace her? », asks Didier Billion, who evokes a possible rapprochement with Iran. “There are already fairly close relations between the two countries,” he notes, “and Tehran especially takes a dim view of the strengthening of Turkish-Azerbaijani influence in the region.”
France also positioned itself by giving its “agreement” on Tuesday for the delivery of military equipment (the nature of which it did not specify) to Armenia, as announced by French Minister of Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna, traveling to Yerevan. But it is only an “outline of a strategic partnership”, nuance Tigrane Yégavian, researcher at the French Center for Intelligence Research (CF2R) and author of “Geopolitics of Armenia” (Bibliomonde).
“For the moment, there is no mechanism that would allow Yerevan to benefit from a real security guarantee,” observes the researcher. A situation that is all the more “risky” as Moscow still has “strong nuisance capabilities” vis-à-vis Armenia, which remains “dependent” on Russia in certain sectors – such as energy. “It is not certain that it really has anything to gain by cutting itself off from Moscow as long as it does not have a real strategic partnership with the West,” believes Tigrane Yégavian. And added: “Armenia moves on a tightrope: with the slightest misstep, its entire existence is at risk.”
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