The federal government is sending signals of order and control in terms of migration policy – but there is no system change, criticizes asylum law expert Daniel Thym. He explains which “three major construction sites” need to be removed and why border controls are expected to end in mid-2026.
Daniel Thym, 52, is a leading asylum expert who regularly advises the German government. He recently delivered a keynote speech at the EU summit “Munich Migration Meeting” in October, invited by Federal Interior Minister Alexander dobrindt (CSU).
What’s happening with the EU’s new migrant distribution plan?
Thym believes the government is leveraging existing regulations, despite their shortcomings. Berlin is using the solidarity distribution mechanism to incentivize Southern European countries to take back asylum seekers for whom they are responsible, a system-the Dublin system-that has long been dysfunctional. If this changes next June,it would represent progress. Simultaneously, Germany highlights its own efforts in accepting individuals for whom Greece or Italy are responsible, framing this as an act of German solidarity.
This effectively puts to rest the idea, popularized by Angela Merkel after 2015, of distributing asylum seekers across Europe via large-scale airlifts based on quotas.
Will the new procedures at the EU’s external borders prevent migrants from traveling onward to countries like Germany?
Thym offers a cautious “yes and no.” He’s optimistic about improved cooperation between countries, but stresses the need for observation. The facilities at external borders are intended primarily for individuals with limited prospects of remaining, while others will likely continue to move freely within Europe, even if illegally. The success of the agreement with Italy and Greece hinges on their practical cooperation with repatriation efforts.
However, Germany also faces internal challenges. A bill to tighten rules for onward migration is stalled in the Bundestag, facing opposition from the SPD. Even if passed, the effectiveness depends on consistent application by the federal states, something previous experience suggests might potentially be arduous.
What are the “three major construction sites” Thym identifies?
Firstly, Thym points to the differing interpretations of the principle of “safe countries of origin” across respective legal systems.
Another point: Germany often grants protection status-and a ban on deportation-to individuals facing extreme poverty, even without evidence of persecution or civil war. Correcting this case law could offer more flexibility. While those genuinely persecuted or fleeing civil war would still be protected, poverty alone in countries like Syria or Afghanistan would no longer automatically trigger deportation bans.
What’s the timeline for these changes?
Thym anticipates that border controls will end by June 12th of next year at the latest, as the new GEAS (Common European Asylum System) will introduce a new right to asylum, invalidating the current legal justification for the controls.Germany did not sign a declaration of 27 other countries on December 10th, signaling a lack of leadership on the Human Rights Convention.
Despite the planned reforms, more than 100,000 new asylum seekers arrived this year, equivalent to the population of a large city, and family reunifications remain high. It remains to be seen whether this migration shift will fully resonate with the general population.
The initial reception centers are less crowded,a change municipalities are noticing. Though, challenges related to integration, the labor market, schools, and social cohesion persist. It will take time for these changes to fully take effect.
How long will Germany need internal border controls and rejections?
Thym notes that, surprisingly, there has been only one court decision against the current procedures. The federal government lost an initial case before the Berlin Administrative Court due to insufficient description of the burden on the state, but no further challenges have materialized. The deficits in European asylum law remain a key part of the legal justification.
