Mexico has an appointment with the polls this Sunday: more than 92 million people are called to vote for endorse or revoke the president’s mandate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, in a process that has been preceded by months of controversy and disputes.
It is an unprecedented exercise in the country that continues to generate doubts, especially in the event that López Obrador takes a hit. However, everything indicates that the president, who enjoys a high level of acceptance, has managed to resist wear and will obtain the validation that will allow him to remain in office until 2024.
There are many who have already pointed out that in case of losing the consultation, it will be Sergio Gutiérrez Luna who holds the position provisionally, as established by the Mexican Constitution, which states that in case of revocation it must be the president of the Chamber of Deputies who steps forward. After thirty days, it will be the Congress itself that appoints a successor to complete the mandate.
Thus, article 60 of the Federal Law for Revocation of Mandate states that López Obrador would cease to be the president of Mexico since the Electoral Court issues its declaration, as long as the population opts for the revocation route.
At least 40% participation
To do so, they must participate in the process, which has had the support of the authorities, at least 40 percent of the people registered in the electoral roll. The opposition, for its part, has been opposed to carrying out the referendum on the grounds that it violates electoral laws, and continues to stress that it is “manipulating an instrument created to remove corrupt leaders.”
The president himself has promoted the measure, which it would allow him to demonstrate his charisma and popularity, even when the National Electoral Institute (INE) was against it. He has also alluded on several occasions to budget problems to block its celebration and has insisted that it is the people “who put in and who takes away.” “I am going to submit to the revocation and the people are going to decide if they want me to continue or resign,” he stresses.
In addition, he says that he will write ‘Viva Emiliano Zapata’ on his ballot, in memory of the anniversary of the death of the Mexican revolutionary. “I can’t vote for one thing or the other. But I do have to go vote. A democrat has to always participate, when it comes to making decisions”Explain.
That is why he considers that it is a fundamental event for Mexicans, who will be able to participate in a democratic exercise on the future of the country. “Why is this important? So that the people always, I repeat, have power in their hands and that no one feels absolute at any level of the scale,” he insists.
At the end of 2021, the Supreme Court agreed with López Obrador and ordered to continue with the preparations for the referendum with the approved budget despite criticism that a removal exercise “was becoming an act of ratification”, which which could lead to a loss of the true meaning and purpose of the query.
The query controversy
The dispute over the revocation of the president’s mandate revolves around the INE and the country’s authorities. This relationship goes back, to a great extent, to the creation of the institute itself and to regulations that prevents the political parties from requesting their own referendum.
The legislation approved in September 2021 prevents officials from disseminating messages to request a vote for or against the revocation, and even requesting its call, which has led the electoral authorities to issue precautionary measures against high-ranking government officials and leaders of the ruling Morena party for making calls in favor of holding the referendum.
The tensions go back to the preparations for the process: from the Government accuse the INE of boycotting the consultation, while some members of the organization accuse Morena of “violating its legality.” Previously, the INE had claimed to lack the necessary budgets, while the Government and Congress refused to carry out budget increases.
While some counselors advocated stopping the process, deputies from Morena requested that they be put on trial for allegedly “attacking” the rights of Mexicans. Finally, the Supreme decided not to expand the budget item for the consultation but justified the reduction of voting centers for the development of the referendum.
the polls
Although the support of the citizens for López Obrador has been fluctuating over the months, the percentage of the population in favor of revoking his mandate continues to hover around 30 percent. In this sense, most surveyss give the leader of Morena a support of more than 50 percentwhich would allow him to remain in office.
The main obstacle that the consultation could run into, however, is the lack of participation. Polls show that about 27 percent of the population will attend the appointment, although the minimum necessary for the result to be binding is 40 percent.
On the other hand, they are close to 52 percent of those who consider that the consultation is not even necessary, compared to 42 percent who support its realization.
With the data on the table, the defenders of holding the referendum, such as the mayor of Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaumemphasize that it is a “democratic exercise in the service of the people” while the dissenting voices point to a new movement to cause “greater polarization” and reaffirm the image of the president.
In this way, it is precisely the supporters of López Obrador remaining in office who have supported the holding of the consultation, which in the event that it is resolved with the ‘yes’ to the revocation could place Mexico in a scenario of instability. politics in search of consensus to elect a new president.