2024-08-03 14:45:39
He Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded a slight growth of 0.2% during the second quarter of the year, below the 0.3% from the previous quarter.
“With these data, we continue to expect moderate growth in the coming quarters and maintain our growth estimates of just 1.9% for this year and 1.1% for 2025,” he said. Rodolfo Ostolaza, Director of Financial Analysis Citibanamex.
He said that public spending is advancing at historic levels during the second quarter with a real increase of 12.1% Regarding the first half of 2023, “only comparable with that exhibited during the financial crisis of 2008”.
Ostolaza projected that the deficit will be 6.2% this year, higher than the Treasury projected. Citibanamex highlighted that during the first quarter, Quintana Roo y Campeche recorded the highest GDP growth in the country, boosted by public investment.
Yesterday at noon, the peso shot up to 18.80 pesos per dollar after learning of a slowdown in the Mexico’s GDP and an increase in the fiscal deficit, which caused risk aversion in the financial markets where our currency is volatile, in addition to the nervousness of the monetary policy decision of the Federal Reserve The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to announce its announcement on Wednesday, and it is expected that there will be no interest rate cut in that country.
Citibanamex estimated that with the economic data so far in both Mexico and USA, There are no signs of a rate cut and this may not happen until September.
At the same time that it was announced, GDP of the second quarter of the year, which supports the narrative of a slowdown towards the second half of 2024, the Secretary of Finance The Ministry of Finance revealed data on the fiscal situation, where in the accumulated period from January to June, income was above 53 billion pesos (a real increase of 5.3% at an annual rate), due to non-oil income.
It was highlighted that during the period there was a lower collection of ISR in addition to IEPS (-18% and 27 billion pesos below the budget), which was offset by a higher collection of IVA which reached 41.32 billion pesos.
Arely Medina, financial analyst Citibanamex, He stressed that the deficit estimate remains high.
And although Hacienda raises that public debt (SHRFSP) As a percentage of GDP, it would be located at 5.9%. “Given the fiscal deterioration described above, and the January-June result, we maintain our estimates of 6.2%”.
An analysis of the bank Bx+ anticipated slight growth for the country 1.9%, for both 2024 and 2025, with the data released until yesterday.
Alejandro Saldana, The bank’s chief economist stressed that the effect of Mexican fiscal consolidation will be offset by an upward adjustment in exports.
As for the fiscal balance, the Historical Balance of Public Sector Financial Requirements It closed in 2023 with 14.8 billion pesos and this period only until June grew to 16.03 billion pesos, which indicates that it grew 1.1 billion pesos in just six months.
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2024-08-03 14:45:39