On June 15, Ursula von der Leyen described as“historical” the gas supply protocol between the European Union (EU), Israel and Egypt enabling Europe to move towards ending its dependence on Russian energy supplies and the green transition. The Union’s enthusiasm was felt during the announcement ceremony, in a five-star hotel in Cairo, because this agreement means that Europe will be able to receive gas from the eastern basin of the Mediterranean. According to the contract, the natural gas will transit from Israel’s offshore fields to Egypt via a gas pipeline, then it will be liquefied before being transported to EU ports. Moreover, this tripartite cooperation was ratified the day after the reduction by [le groupe russe] Gazprom of deliveries [de gaz par le gazoduc Nord Stream 1].
At the same time, the EU encourages European companies to contribute to Israeli and Egyptian projects for research and extraction of natural gas. Brussels wants to extend the agreement to renewable energies, thanks to which Egypt would produce green hydrogen. The clean fuel would arrive in the Union via an undersea gas pipeline which has not yet been built, but which would initially transport gas to Europe. Specialists in energy policy and the EU’s green transition nevertheless remain circumspect about Ursula von der Leyen’s statements claiming that the Cairo Memorandum of Understanding [s’inscrit dans une politique visant à] “ending dependence on Russian fossil fuels”.
According to the most optimistic scenarios, Mediterranean sources of supply would only moderately help to achieve this objective. Israel extracts 12 billion cubic meters annually from its three underwater deposits. Egypt exported 8.9 billion cubic meters of liquefied gas last year and 4.7 billion between January and May 2022, 60% of which went to Asia. However, in 2021, the EU bought 155 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia, or 40% to 45% of its total consumption.
territorial disputes
Of course, it cannot be ruled out that the eastern basin of the Mediterranean harbors a much more considerable gas treasure. Research is constant, and new deposits seem promising. But it will take years to exploit them and organize the delivery of the gas that will be extracted. Such investments eventually only become profitable after fifteen to twenty years. Their profitability depends on the gas price, which is very high this year.
On the other hand, meeting Europe’s climate targets would require a reduction in fossil fuel extraction within the decade. In addition, territorial disputes disrupt the gas exploration and exploitation operations of Israel, Egypt, Lebanon and Turkey. While the dispute over the Israeli-Lebanese maritime border can quite easily be settled through the United States, the demands of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognized only by Ankara and trampling on international law, constitute a serious source of tension with Cyprus and Greece.
The Cairo memorandum highlights the fact that natural gas should play a central role until 2030 in the EU energy market. Its importance is then expected to diminish, as Brussels wants to see the Union achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Several environmental organizations consider that, despite this ambition, the EU is committed in costly and long-term investments in fossil fuels to solve its energy problems in the short term.
The EastMed gas pipeline, which would link Egypt to Greece and Italy via Cyprus, would cost 5 or 6 billion euros. Many experts consider EastMed too expensive, which would be both the longest (1,900 kilometres) and deepest underwater gas pipeline in the world. The withdrawal of the United States from the project, at the very beginning of 2022, inflates the investment bill. Washington may have thought of its own supplies of liquefied gas. But according to Amos Hochstein, chief energy security adviser to the US Department of State, interconnecting power grids would be a much more viable solution.
Human rights abuses
Connecting Greece, Cyprus and Israel, or Egypt, Crete and Cyprus, through submarine cables would thus provide the possibility of exporting electricity to the EU at gas or hydrogen base. The NGO Food & Water Action Europe, based in Brussels, says that “the fashion for hydrogen is at its peak” within the Union. Specialists question the words of Ursula von der Leyen judging that the EastMed gas pipeline and the liquefied gas terminals would be adaptable for hydrogen. According to Food & Water Action Europe, the EU is so touting hydrogen as the “clean fuel” of the future that it unsubstantiatedly offers extensive political, financial and legislative support to build the hydrogen economy.
Experts believe that the wish [européen] cutting off Russian energy supplies fuels not only the war in Ukraine, but also the brutality of the Russian military. Nevertheless, specialists show that the Cairo agreement hardly reduces dependence on problematic countries. On the day of the signing, Ursula von der Leyen posed with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sissi, whose regime is accused by Western countries of intimidating activists, journalists and opponents. As for Israel, this country and the EU clash over the blockade of the Gaza Strip, the occupation of East Jerusalem and the West Bank, as well as the limitation of the rights of the Palestinians.
According to the Brussels research center Corporate Europe Observatory, the gas supply agreement restricts the Union’s room for maneuver in the face of human rights abuses in Israel and Egypt. An observation that is just as valid vis-à-vis one of the main liquefied gas producing countries, Qatar, about which the EU has great hopes. The extraction of gas from the eastern basin of the Mediterranean has significant significance, since it has ensured the energy self-sufficiency of Israel and Egypt, while strengthening cooperation between the states of the region. It remains to be seen whether this source is really strategic in the eyes of the EU.