Migrant Crackdown: US Worker Shortage Risk?

Trump’s Immigration Crackdown: Businesses Fear Workforce Shortages and Economic Slowdown

WASHINGTON, D.C., June 27, 2025

Businesses brace for impact as immigration policies tighten

Trump’s deportation drive threatens workforce and economic growth.

• Trump management resumes workplace raids and revokes temporary work permits.
• Nearly one in five U.S. workers is an immigrant, a record high.
• Businesses fear worker shortages, perhaps leading to inflation and slower economic growth.
• Industries like hospitality, agriculture, and homebuilding are already feeling the strain.

president Trump’s crackdown on immigration is causing widespread anxiety among businesses,as his administration intensifies deportation efforts and tightens restrictions on work permits,potentially crippling critical sectors of the U.S. economy.

Demonstrators fill the street with signs and flags in Los Angeles, California on June 14, 2025.

The ripple effect of stricter policies

Victor Moran,chief executive of Total Quality,a 1,200-person cleaning business in Maryland,meticulously verifies the work authorization of all new hires. Yet, even with these precautions, his workforce is shrinking.

Since Trump moved to eliminate temporary protections for immigrants from Venezuela and Nicaragua, roughly 15 employees have left Total Quality. further White House action could jeopardize hundreds more jobs held by workers with similar permits,positions Moran says would be difficult to fill.

Across the nation, businesses share Moran’s worries as Trump’s deportation drive gains momentum, potentially strangling the supply of labor that is vital to the U.S.economy. Census data indicates that immigrants accounted for nearly one in five U.S. workers last year,an all-time high compared to less than 10% in 1994.

Targeting illegal immigration

Trump maintains that his focus is on those in the U.S. illegally, who constitute about 4% of the workforce. His promise of mass deportations was a core campaign pledge, garnering significant support, including from many Hispanic voters.

The administration has reinstated workplace raids, a tactic suspended under the Biden administration. Moreover, White house actions extend to student visas, refugee admissions, and the revocation of temporary work permits granted by previous administrations.

These measures threaten the lives of millions, many of whom have lived and worked in the U.S. for years.

Personal stories behind the policy

‘Stress on my mind’

“We are terrified,” says Justino gomez, a 73-year-old cleaner from El Salvador who has lived in the U.S.for 30 years. He is authorized to work under the TPS program, which provides temporary work permits and deportation protection based on conditions in immigrants’ home countries.

Justino gomez from El Salvador fears ICE will eventually deport him

His earnings supported his adopted daughter’s education in El Salvador, enabling her to become a teacher. With Trump already moving to end TPS for Haitians and Venezuelans, Gomez, who resides in Maryland, fears El Salvador could be next.

“Every time I leave home, I have this stress on my mind,” Gomez said, explaining that even commuting fills him with dread that ICE agents will be waiting.

Anticipating economic fallout

The numbers don’t lie

Many of Trump’s actions face legal challenges, including a lawsuit regarding TPS. Even if the White House fails to significantly increase arrests and deportations, analysts foresee near-term economic consequences as people like Gomez retreat into the shadows and fewer immigrants arrive.

Workforce growth, largely fueled by immigration, has stagnated since Trump took office in January. Giovanni Peri, an economist at the University of California, Davis, cautions that companies will struggle to expand amid worker shortages, thereby slowing economic growth.

A shrinking workforce may also trigger inflation by driving up labor costs. Professor Peri warns that sustained policies could have profound, long-term economic repercussions, citing Japan’s shrinking economy due to restricted immigration and an aging population.

“The undocumented raids are a piece of a policy that really wants to transform the United States from one of the places where immigrants come, are integrated and part of the success of society to a closed country,” he said.”Rather of an engine of growth, it will become a more stagnant and slow growing and less dynamic economy.”

Did you know? Immigrants make up nearly 20% of the U.S. workforce, contributing significantly to various sectors.

Trump has acknowledged disruption his policies are causing in key industries, such as farming.

Struggling to find workers

Many companies report difficulties in filling open positions. Adam Lampert, chief executive of Cambridge Caregivers and Manchester Care Homes in texas, notes that approximately 80% of his 350 employees are foreign-born.

“I don’t go out and place ads for non-citizens to fill our roles,” he said. “It is the immigrants who are answering the call.”

Similar to Moran, Lampert has already lost some workers due to Trump’s policies on temporary work permits. He also fears the broader consequences of the crackdown, especially since his business competes with undocumented workers hired directly by families.

If these undocumented workers are forced out, demand for his services will increase, leading to higher labor costs and ultimately, higher rates for consumers. “We’re going to have incredible inflation if you scrape all these people out of the economy,” he warned. “We can’t do without these people in the workforce.”

Hospitals feel the strain

Esmail Porsa, chief executive of Harris Health System, a large hospital network in Texas, confirms that Trump’s policy changes have resulted in staff losses. He argues that training American workers to fill these roles would take years,especially given the growing needs of the healthcare sector.

“As the population is getting older and we are clamping down on one viable source of current and future workforce, this issue will come to a head,” he says.

Rapid fact: In 2024, nearly one in five workers in the U.S. was an immigrant.

Government response

Trump acknowledged last week the disruptions his policies are causing in sectors heavily reliant on undocumented labor, such as hospitality and agriculture, even pausing workplace raids temporarily in some industries following Republican pushback.

Despite economic concerns, Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin stated that workplace raids remain a “cornerstone” of thier efforts.

Jim Tobin, president of the National association of Homebuilders, reports that construction firms nationwide are experiencing no-shows from work crews, which will slow construction and drive up costs in an already expensive sector.

The industry has urged Congress to reform immigration laws, including creating a special visa program for construction workers. However,Tobin does not anticipate significant changes to immigration policy anytime soon.

“I think it’s going to take a signal from the president about when it’s time to engage,” he said. “Right now it’s all about enforcement.”

What is the potential impact of Trump’s immigration policies on the U.S. economy?

Trump’s stricter immigration policies may reduce the workforce, potentially leading to slower economic growth and increased inflation as companies struggle to find workers and face higher labor costs. Sectors like agriculture, hospitality, and construction could be significantly affected.

Industry Reactions adn Calls for Reform

The economic anxieties stemming from stricter immigration enforcement extend beyond individual businesses, prompting calls for broader policy changes across various industries. Trade groups and lobbying organizations are actively assessing the potential damage and strategizing ways to mitigate the fallout from President Trump’s policies. Their responses highlight the intricate connections between immigration, the labor market, and overall economic health.

Agriculture at a Crossroads

Nowhere are the stakes higher than in agriculture, a sector heavily reliant on immigrant labor, many of whom are undocumented or employed through temporary visas. The National farmers Union (NFU) has voiced deep concerns, echoing warnings of potential crop failures and price increases if the labor supply dwindles further. Farmers already grapple with thin profit margins and unpredictable whether patterns, making workforce shortages particularly devastating.

Agriculture faces potential crop failures.

The NFU, along with agricultural lobbying groups, is lobbying for a streamlined guest worker programme allowing seasonal laborers to enter the U.S. legally. They argue that such a measure is critical to ensuring a stable food supply, as well as preventing the collapse of family farms and preventing further strain on the overall economy.

Hospitality and the Service Industry struggles

The hospitality and service sectors, including restaurants, hotels, and tourism-related businesses, also face notable challenges. These industries have long depended on immigrant labor for positions ranging from housekeeping to food preparation. Labor shortages, as highlighted in the Cambridge Caregivers and Manchester Care Homes example, could lead to reduced operating hours, service limitations, and increased prices. The American Hotel & Lodging Association (AHLA) has cited potential disruptions in peak travel seasons, which could result from understaffing.

The AHLA and other hospitality groups are focused on advocating for policies to reduce disruptions in the labor supply and provide legal pathways for qualified workers.The pressure is on to demonstrate the importance of immigrant workers to politicians.

Construction Delays and Cost Overruns

the construction industry, already grappling with supply chain issues and rising material costs, has identified potential slowdowns. Both Jim Tobin of the National Association of Homebuilders and a chorus of industry analysts warn about the impact of workforce shortages, as Trump’s policies continue to limit the number of available workers. this poses a direct threat to current and future projects, driving up costs, delaying completion, and potentially affecting housing affordability, particularly as new construction is needed to help alleviate the housing shortage in many parts of the country.

Advocacy Groups and Legal Challenges

Simultaneously, immigrant advocacy groups and civil rights organizations are actively seeking legal challenges and advocating for broader change. Groups such as the American Immigration Council and the ACLU are challenging specific policies in the courts, focusing on due process protections, the legality of workplace raids, and the potential violation of international human rights.Their efforts could significantly influence the scope and direction of the management’s policies and provide immediate relief to vulnerable populations.

Additionally, these groups are working to educate immigrants about their rights and provide support services. They are also focused on promoting comprehensive immigration reform legislation, including a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

Political Dynamics and the Path Forward

the political landscape surrounding immigration remains highly polarized, as the earlier article highlighted.President Trump’s stance aligns with his campaign promises and his base.However, the economic consequences of these policies could trigger a political backlash, especially if business owners are forced to lay off American-born workers due to their business constraints.

The outcome of legal challenges, combined with political pressure from businesses and advocacy groups, could alter the course.the U.S. economy is at a critical juncture, with the choices made today determining the future of businesses, workers, and the nation’s long-term prosperity.