If what was agreed last Thursday is put on paper this week, the Government will have taken a step more than important to start a new stage.
However, the governors of Together for Change (JxC) who are willing to give their endorsement (and commit their votes) to the Tupacamariz Government Bases Bill, They want to see to believe before committing and exposing themselves more than they have already done.. Background and results conspire against faith and trust.
The provincial leaders still maintain a few doubts about the final content of the most critical points under discussion, such as the resources for the provincial pension funds not transferred, public works today paralyzed and the floor of the tax on Profits, among other. Although they all admit progress in these items.
“Something always appears that changes your game and it is never very clear what the change is due to”argues one of the governors to justify his prudence.
The good atmosphere that the parties say is breathed in the meetings led by the Minister of the Interior, Guillermo Francosand to which the Chief of Staff has recently appeared, Nicolas Possefails to completely clear the distrust that marks the link with a government whose decision-making is as centralized as it is unpredictable. The screens in the admission booths of the Ministry of Economy and the Presidency are not translucent for foreigners. Sometimes, not for the locals either.
“As we said on Thursday, the text will be out this week. In these days we will meet with the governors and representatives of the dialogue sectors that we are missing and we will finish adjusting the details of the final version. We want it to be discussed in the Deputies’ committees the week of the 15th and, the following week, to arrive at the venue,” explains one of the main officials involved in the negotiation with the provincial heads.
“We believe that the final text will only be available in two weeks and We hope that the passage of time does not add any last minute surprises.“says one of the leaders who participated in Thursday’s meeting and who went from reticence to measured optimism.
However, the governor anticipates that the dialogue opposition (in which he joins with some differences) cannot withhold support for this nodal initiative of the ruling party after the cuts made to the original text.
“Although the Government does not admit it, the chainsaw was their turn. They had to prune almost two-thirds of its articles and on very sensitive issues for them, such as the duration of the economic emergency and the scope of the delegation of powers to the Executive Branch,” explains another Cambiomite president who was always more inclined to grant that fundamental legal tool for the Milei administration.
“We have to give him that key so he can start once and for all and stop having excuses, which we give him for free so that he can continue blaming everything on the inheritance he received.. If he does well, we show that we are not putting any brakes on his wheel and if he does poorly, he will not be able to hold others responsible,” argues another representative of the collaborationist wing of radicalism. This position clashes with what the sector led by the president of the UCR believes, Martin Lousteaureluctant to make concessions to the ruling party and which raised the differentiating profile.
The old party is, precisely, more divided than everespecially among those who have territories to govern and the party leadership, which lacks that burden of responsibility.
The first prioritize needs of their provinces as much as they look at the base electoral that put them in government. In many cases, his voters opted nationally for Javier Milei, especially in the runoff, which they did en masse. For this reason, the majority is already looking at next year’s calendar to split the elections. Although there are still so many things to happen, they prefer to be cautious.
At the radical summit, however, a skeptical look about the Government’s economic plan, which adds to the distance between Milei and La Libertad Avanza in almost all political and social matters. Enough reason for this leadership to be reluctant to give the Government the tool it needs without asking for other concessions or making more differences. The problem is not only for radicalism.
The need to add the more than fifty votes in the Chamber of Deputies that the Government has not yet secured or that are only a liquid promise forces him to avoid any leak from the most collaborative sectors. The same happens with the different tribes that coexist within Peronism.
The opposition, like the Government, looks at the calendar as much as the temperature on the street and on social networks and they make projections, but nothing gives them enough clarifying signals to make decisions with any security, beyond beliefs and convictions.
For this reason, the dialogueists, unlike the Pro collaborationists, aim to make the minimum and necessary concessions, waiting for time to pass and to demonstrate whether social support for the Government is immune to the consequences of the adjustment and the deep recession that would be entering their most acute phase in this season.
Given this uncertain reality, the endorsement of the Cambymite governors for the “Bases Law” could have advantageous aspects both for those skeptical opponents and for the ruling party. For the former, the enormous cuts made to the original project would be an alibi to justify their support and remain safe from new setbacks by the Government.
For Milei and his people it would be the crucial step forward for show legal and political sustainability of their actions, which even the Monetary Fund and the United States demand from themdespite the signs of subjection (and submission) given to those power factors.
It has been especially notable on that level more than preferential treatment given by the President himself to a military leader who in the scheme of power of the United States occupies a second or third level place. Many heads of state of countries relevant to Argentina may envy the general Richardson. And they will have looked in disbelief at a spectacle that, in other times, would have been a source of scandal within borders.
It is true that too many things too relevant to the promises and libertarian ideology are left out of the ambitious initial project of the former omnibus megalaw. However, even limited, The economic emergency and the delegation of powers are powerful tools to move forward without going through new legislative tolls. There are still doubts about key aspects, which will continue to be a topic of discussion with governors and legislators.
In any case, that still takes a lot of time and procedures. In the immediate future, he will say that he has reached a basic agreement with a good part of the political system that, although it does not guarantee him, promises him a less arduous passage through Congress. Political oxygen in times of suffocation. It’s not little.
At the same time, The Government, which boasts of its inflexibility, will have shown signs of a certain plasticity and pragmatism, which will give him the opportunity to develop a new bond with political forces that, still disconcerted, altered several nights of his honeymoon. In times of bread and onions, it is better not to add to arguments.
To the official dreams is added the illusion of deepening in their favor (and not against them when voting in Congress) the Cambiamita and Peronist cracks.
The most prudent ones have as their essential objective smoothing the way to facilitate the Government’s policies. The ruling party learned that it will not be free. There are no definitive victories. But if told well, they can seem that way. And in that, Milei and his team have shown skill.
The most enthusiastic libertarians, meanwhile, are setting their sights and working for next year’s legislative elections, which adds new discomfort and threat to the opponents who govern territories in which Milei preserves and increased its positive image since the presidential elections, despite the fact that in objective terms the socio-economic situation has worsened. Another battle against time that Mileism tries to take advantage of while maintaining popularity ratios that, when compared with those of its adversaries, show it like Gulliver among Lilliputians.
Karina and Caputo, shopping
The little sister Karina Milei and the guru Santiago Caputo advance in the party organization to consolidate loyal leaders, to neutralize or expel unreliable franchisees and, above all, for capture new references in all provinces and in as many cities as possible.
The objective (without any claim to originality) is to attract well-known and popular people from each place who have affinity or, at least, do not contradict too much the libertarian ideology (or imagination). “It doesn’t matter where they come from, but where they want to go,” is another Kirchnerist maxim that made mileism his own.. If, in addition, these signings involve low-cost, high-return transfers from other forces, much better. Double sum.
In this process of recruiting possible candidates, they work with experienced consultants in both Cambiomita and Peronist campaigns. Caputo himself and his former partners Guillermo Garat and Rodrigo Lugones They have thousands of miles accumulated in those territories, including the last election in which they had clients from La Libertad Avanza as well as from Unión por la Patria.
Los old grudges that the trio has with a part of the macrismo They never calmed down, especially with Jaime Durán Barbathe guru who made their debut in the major leagues, and with Marcos Pena, who has just returned to the scene with a brand new book whose postulates seem to have little to do with aesthetics and libertarian ethics. One more incentive that Caputo has to continue drilling the team he formed Mauricio Macrias they have been doing to the annoyance of the founder and with the grace of several yellow leaders who compete to be available for whatever the ruling party orders.
In this expansion process they have made progress in some agreements rented with private and public institutions (yes, although it may seem strange) to hold training and recruitment days for leaders and probable candidates in the interior of the country. The winning horse always has sponsorship available.
The closing of an agreement with the governors on the draft “Bases Law” would operate not only as a driving force for the treatment in Congress but as an accelerator for the political-electoral strategy. Win-win.
That’s why, The political sectors of the Government (which has them) are convinced that they are on the verge of a crucial advance. If presidential inspiration does not dictate something different at the last minute.