2023-09-25 18:30:06
The cross : Emmanuel Macron declared on Sunday September 24 that Russia had played Azerbaijan’s game against Armenia. Do you agree with this statement?
Armine Margarian: I completely agree. The primary reason is that Russia is not interested in establishing a lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. For decades, it has maintained frozen conflicts in the countries of its neighborhood to maintain levers of influence there. She positioned herself as an initiator of dialogue and a mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan after the war of autumn 2020.
The ceasefire agreement provides for the reopening of lines of communication between the two countries, and not the establishment of a « corridor » without Armenian checkpoints to connect Azerbaijan to its enclave of Nakhchivan (and therefore with Turkey). But this corridor would be beneficial to Russia. It would punish Armenia for having tried in recent years to emancipate itself from Russian tutelage. It would offer Moscow, which would control this corridor, a way to improve its connectivity and better circumvent Western sanctions which complicate its imports and exports. And it would undermine Armenian sovereignty, allowing Russia to resume the tutelary role it has occupied since the fall of the Soviet Union, and which Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian has been calling into question since 2018.
As such, do you think Nikol Pashinian was unwise to turn away from Russia so conspicuously in recent months?
A. M. : On the contrary, I think it was a rational decision. Since its independence, Armenia has continued to see its dependence on Russia increase. The Kremlin has posed itself as the guarantor of Armenia’s security. This weighed in the balance, for example, when Moscow forced Yerevan to give up on entering into an association agreement with the European Union. Until the 2018 revolution, all Armenian leaders respected this situation. But Armenia’s democratic evolution calls it into question, because Moscow sees it as a threat.
Since then, Russia has begun to align with Azerbaijan’s positions regarding Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia is therefore seeking to diversify its foreign relations in order to reduce its dependence on Russia. This makes sense to me. And I would not be surprised if after Nikol Pashinian’s very harsh speech against Russia yesterday, the Armenian government is considering leaving the Collective Security Treaty Organization (regional alliance headed by Russia, Editor’s note), and greater development of relations with Europe and the United States. But this will require the support of our Western partners, because Moscow will do everything to prevent it.
Azerbaijan and Turkey are currently sending contradictory messages, claiming on the one hand that the conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh paves the way for normalization of relations with Armenia, but on the other hand, they imply that a recourse force is not excluded to obtain the creation of a corridor between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan. Should we take the threat of military intervention against Armenia itself seriously?
A. M. : A military intervention against Syunik (southern region of Armenia through which the corridor would pass, Editor’s note) seems unlikely in the near future. After the invasion of Ukraine, the West demonstrated its very strong hostility towards violations of respect for the territorial integrity of countries. However, the Azerbaijani attacks against Armenia in 2021 and 2022 had already triggered strong international reactions. So this seems difficult to me.
This is all the more so since military aggression would weaken Azerbaijan’s position in the peace process supervised by the West between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Nevertheless, it is certain that the establishment of this corridor will be a priority for Turkey and Azerbaijan, who will use numerous levers to obtain it.
To what extent does the takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan change the situation in these negotiations with a view to establishing a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
A. M. : I don’t think this will have serious consequences. A meeting between Nikol Pashinian and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is scheduled for October 5 during the European Political Community summit in Granada, which clearly shows that Armenia still intends to move forward in this peace process.
Yerevan understands that there is no other way than establishing peace with Azerbaijan, and the normalization of relations with Turkey which depends on it. This is an extension of the policy that Nikol Pashinian has been pursuing for years, and which aims to “decouple” the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh from that of Armenia’s bilateral relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Don’t you fear that Azerbaijan will exploit or block the exodus of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh towards Armenia, in order to obtain concessions from Yerevan?
A. M. : Some fear that they will use the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh as “hostages” in these negotiations, but I think that this would have negative consequences for the peace process, and for the Azerbaijani side, which is keen to bring it to fruition.
We also see that their speech towards the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh has become more accommodating in recent days. They say they can stay, that they are welcome, that they can live together. This was to make the international community believe that Baku was only seeking to restore its territorial integrity, and to avoid accusations of ethnic cleansing.
Which brings us to the question of whether, after having swallowed Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan will succeed in digesting it! This ethnic cleansing will certainly be highlighted by international partners to penalize Baku, which has already made up a long list of reproaches for its blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh since December 2022, its repeated use of force, or even its violations to human rights. Moreover, the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh will all leave. In the long term, this also means that Azerbaijan will lose this leverage over Armenia.
#Military #intervention #Azerbaijan #Armenia