Lebanon was once considered the “Switzerland of the Middle East,” a relatively quiet and neutral Arab state on geopolitical and military matters, with a capital administered to Paris. This was probably due to the existence of a strong Christian community. A series of events and crises have changed its image, including the civil war in Lebanon, religious conflicts, armed conflicts with Israel, the intensification of the Shiite terrorist militia Hezbollah, the civil war in Syria and public corruption.
Lebanon was once considered the “Switzerland of the Middle East,” a relatively quiet and neutral Arab state in geopolitical and military matters, with a capital ruled over Paris. But a series of events and crises changed its image.
Although Lebanon is in deep mud, Israel must at this time see an opportunity for rapprochementWhich may make a significant contribution to both parties.
It is important to understand what caused Lebanon to reach its current situation. In the 1990s, Lebanon decided to peg its currency to the US dollar, instead of allowing global financial markets to determine its value. The Central Bank of Lebanon has determined that 1,507 Lebanese pounds will be equivalent to one US dollar.
This policy has led to financial stability, but it has also required the banks in Lebanon to hold a large inventory of dollars so that the banks can implement it.
For years Lebanon had no problem attracting dollars, but after 2011 everything changed. The Syrian civil war and other political tensions in the Middle East have hurt the Lebanese economy. Hezbollah’s growing force, recognized as a terrorist organization by the United States, the European Union and the Arab League, has also deterred foreign investors.
To keep the dollar flowing, the Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon has developed a plan: the banks will offer very generous terms – including an annual interest rate of 15% or even 20% – to anyone who deposits dollars. But the only way for the banks to profit from this was to condition the payment of interest on primary depositors in money from new depositors, what is known as Ponzi fraud. Once people realized this, they could no longer withdraw their money from the banks, and so the financial system collapsed in 2019.
This economic and financial crisis is the most severe known to Lebanon. As a result, the “October 17 Revolution” broke out in 2019 as a public protest About the crisis that swept the streets.
The Syrian civil war and other political tensions have hit the Lebanese economy. Hezbollah’s growing force, recognized as a terrorist organization by the United States, the European Union and the Arab League, has also deterred foreign investors.
Then came the corona plague. Lebanon was actually one of the few countries that conducted the first wave of the plague, between March and June 2020, in a relatively sober way. But just then, the explosion at the port of Beirut in August 2020 devastated the cards, leaving at least 200 dead, about 7,500 wounded, and causing damage worth about $ 15 billion. The rate of homelessness that follows is estimated at about 300,000.
The blast also destroyed most of Lebanon’s strategic grain reserves. This is currently causing a food security crisis, as Ukraine, which was the main supplier, suspended its exports following the war in Ukraine.
Lebanon: 2021 Multi-Sector Needs Assessment – April 2022 https://t.co/tmSZuKs5rO via @reliefweb
— ᖇOᑎ ᖴᗩᖇᖇᗩ (@RonFarra) April 23, 2022
Lebanon is currently on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe – a multi-system crisis characterized by severe economic recession, political unrest and governance challenges. Total inflation from December 2019 to October 2021 reached 519%. Also, fuel shortages have led to skyrocketing fuel prices and cause multiple power outages, which can last up to 23 hours a day.
The explosion at the port of Beirut also destroyed most of Lebanon’s strategic grain reserves. It also causes a food security crisis, as Ukraine, which was the main supplier, suspended its exports following the war in Ukraine
Although in a very bad situation, unlike most countries in the Middle East, the people of Lebanon enjoy a relatively wide freedom of expression. Freedom of the press is constitutionally enshrined, though not consistently maintained.
While the media in the country is among the most open and diverse in the region, almost all media outlets are dependent on the sponsorship of political parties, capitalists or foreign powers, resulting in a degree of self-censorship. Books, films, plays and works of art are subject to censorship, especially when the content is related to politics, religion, sex or Israel.
Lebanon ranked 4th amongst its Middle Eastern peers and 130th in the world in the 2022 World Press Freedom Index with a score of 46.58.
For more Information :https://t.co/gYFr6fXpxs#CLWeeklyMarketWatch #CLEconomicsResearchPortal pic.twitter.com/C5rmjTCQFX— Credit Libanais (@CreditLibanais) May 10, 2022
Also in relation to the proud community, for example, Lebanon allows the association of LGBT rights organizations, as part of Article 13 of the Constitution, which is extremely rare in Arab countries. Although same-sex activity is prohibited under the Penal Code of 1943, which prohibits any “anti-natural” sexual contact, transgender people may also be prosecuted under the law prohibiting “disguise as a woman,” but Lebanese courts have ruled that the section should not be used. This, even though the law still ostensibly allows it.
However, since the protests “You Stink!” In 2015, the Lebanese authorities began to impose more and more legal restrictions on freedom of expression. The same protests, it will be recalled, erupted following the garbage crisis caused by the closure of the Beirut landfill in July 2015.
Moreover, government officials reportedly interrupted journalists during the 2019 protests. In July 2020, the “Coalition for the Protection of Freedom of Expression in Lebanon” was formed, consisting of 14 Lebanese and international organizations, to combat government attempts to restrict freedom of expression.
Since the “You Stink!” Protests that erupted following the garbage crisis caused by the closure of a capital area dump in 2015, Lebanese authorities have begun to impose legal restrictions on freedom of expression
Lebanon, the only non-desert Arab state, dominates much of the beautiful and green land, and it is not for nothing that it is ruled by Switzerland. But the great similarity between the two countries lies mainly in the neutrality that Lebanon espoused in its first decades.
Until 1967, the Israel-Lebanon border was considered the quiet within Israel’s borders, and was called the “good fence.” Although there was no war until then, it is impossible to say that there was peace between the two. As early as June 23, 1955, the Lebanese parliament passed an anti-Israel boycott law, which includes 13 sections, aimed at severing all ties and relations with the “Zionist entity.”
Not only is this not the only law that prevents some normalization of Lebanon with Israel, but it is one of three sets of laws: the Lebanese Penal Code, the 1955 “Boycott of Israel” Law and the Military Code of Judicial Procedure. As a rule, These laws stipulate that any kind of contact between Lebanese and Israeli citizens is prohibited. The sentence can range from several months in prison to the death penalty.
A survey conducted by the British Council and published in July 2020 showed that Lebanese youth see the European countries, the United States and the United Kingdom as having a positive effect on Lebanon. Also, Israel remains the country where they see the biggest negative impact, as well as the United States, which is perceived as both a positive and negative player.
Lebanon currently has about 5.3 million inhabitants: about 4.5 million civilians and about 1.5 million Syrian, Iraqi and Palestinian refugees. Data on the religious distribution in modern-day Lebanon remain vague, as no official census has been conducted since 1932. However, it is estimated that about 64.9% of the Lebanese population is Muslim (32% Sunni, 31.3% Shiite and 1.6% of Alawites and Ismailis), about 32% of them Christian and about 3.1% are Druze.
The Shiite regime in Iran and its Lebanese branch, Hezbollah, have, to say the least, no interest in the peace of Lebanon-Israel. But Israel’s rapprochement with Sunni states, as part of the “Abraham Agreements” signed in September 2020, may help Israel and Lebanon draw closer.
The Shiite regime in Iran and its Lebanese branch, Hezbollah, have no interest in the peace of Lebanon-Israel. But Israel’s rapprochement with Sunni states, within the framework of the ‘Abraham Agreements’, may help Israel and Lebanon to draw closer
In August 2020, Lebanese President Michel Aoun, who is considered an ally of Hezbollah, said in an interview with the French BFMTV channel: “Were we prepared to sign a peace agreement with Israel? I do not rule out the possibility, but it depends.”
In October of that year, his daughter, Claudine Aoun, who chairs the National Committee for Women in Lebanon, said in an interview with Al-Jadid television: “I do not see a problem with Lebanon signing a peace agreement with Israel.”
new world..
Posted by Reuven Day on Monday, October 26, 2020
In the same year, negotiations began between Israel and Lebanon on marking the maritime border between the two countries. These negotiations, which are still being mediated by the United States, may regulate the restrictions and lead to agreements on the same area of about 860 square kilometers of sea, which may constitute the infrastructure for additional agreements in the future. Israel has already signaled that it is ready to go against the Lebanese and divide the rights in the region in a ratio of 42:58 in their favor.
It seems that there are already those who are trying to take this discourse one step further and it is Defense Minister Bnei Gantz, who during a visit to Bahrain last February, said that Israel had forwarded to Lebanon an offer of assistance following the ongoing crisis that befell it.
Ganz: We offered to help the Lebanese army following the crisis in the country Live broadcast https://t.co/9ChVHR577T pic.twitter.com/IbrVEgqvt2
– Ynet Updates (@ynetalerts) February 2, 2022
In April 2022, a conference was held in Lebanon entitled “On the Return of Neutrality to Lebanon”, backed by the Christian Maronite Patriarch, Bishara a-Ra’i. Some of the speakers called for the adoption of a neutral foreign policy, and urged Lebanon to leave the Iran-controlled regional axis. Among other things, some even discussed the issue of normalization with Israel.
In the last elections to the Lebanese parliament, which were held last May, the Hezbollah camp weakened and the Christian “Lebanese Forces” party led by Samir Jajah, which was fighting to disarm Hezbollah, was strengthened. At the same time, governmental instability continues and the lack of governance does not bode well for Lebanon’s future in the foreseeable future.
Lebanon election results: Hezbollah weakens – but the road to change is long The institute’s researcher, Orna Mizrahi, writes: Parliamentary election results…
Posted by Institute for National Security Studies on Wednesday, May 18, 2022
A gradual diplomatic rapprochement between Israel and Lebanon against the background of the crises in Lebanon and the need to weaken Hezbollah may be the key to mutual success. Hezbollah’s conventional threat to Israel is the most serious threat in the immediate term.
A rapprochement with Lebanon will inevitably weaken Hezbollah and cooperation between Israel and Lebanon against Hezbollah may succeed. This time, unlike in the 1980s, it is possible to harness not only the Christians in Lebanon, but also the Sunnis who constitute a significant and influential share, in light of Israel’s rapprochement with the Sunni states.
Cooperation between Israel and Lebanon against Hezbollah may succeed. This time, unlike in the 1980s, not only the Christians in Lebanon can be harnessed, but also the Sunnis who constitute a significant and influential share, in light of Israel’s rapprochement with the Sunni states.
A “peace agreement with Lebanon” still sounds like an apocalyptic vision. But the State of Israel must not stop groping for it step by step. This is in my opinion the most important peace at this time – Both to Lebanon and to Israel, and the opportunity has come to realize it. Peace with Lebanon will significantly weaken the Iranian threat indirectly, so it is even more vital than normalization with Saudi Arabia.
Although former Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora is remembered in his 2006 statement: “Lebanon will be the last Arab state to sign a peace agreement with Israel,” but who would have believed in 1973 that Israel and Egypt would sign a peace agreement only six years later.
A normalization agreement between Israel and Lebanon will breathe new life into the Middle East. It will be a real peace, as the two have known long wars between them, even though the clashes took place between Palestinian organizations and Hezbollah and not with the Lebanese army itself.
The agreement will, of course, oblige both or at least the Lebanese government to work for the complete demilitarization of the Hezbollah organization. In return, Israel could consider transferring control of the Shebaa Farms to Lebanon. Such a move should be coordinated with the superpowers, including the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom, which are relatively trusted by Lebanese residents.