Germany’s role in Europe and in the world will be redefined in the coming years. It has not yet been decided whether a three-party coalition is good for the upheaval or rather a hindrance. In the past few years, German foreign policy has lost importance. That was certainly also due to the poor performance of Heiko Maas.
But it is also due to the fact that the tectonic shifts that we observe can hardly be grasped or controlled by individual people. Not even individual states are able to act independently: pandemics, the climate, migration or the global debt burden are issues that run globally. Governments are driven, not creators.
In this environment, the aim of German foreign policy must be to represent Germany’s interests – that is, the interests of the citizens of this country. A wise foreign policy must seek allies and partners to safeguard these interests. The search for a partner should be completely non-ideological. Great Britain provides the best example of a self-confident and self-interested foreign policy.
Against the background of the pandemic loop into which the global community has turned, Brexit could prove to be a calculated crash management. Because with the foreclosure, the British have created the conditions to be able to act quickly and efficiently in the pandemic. This can be seen these days in the reaction to the new South Africa mutation of the corona virus: The British have imposed a general test obligation and quarantine for all travelers overnight. In the country itself, life is going on as before – without ideological and grueling blame, but pragmatic and realistic.
At the same time, the British are pursuing tough location policy even during the crisis: AstraZeneca is used for vaccination. Competitors from the continent, on the other hand, have a hard time, as the latest decision by the British government shows: Boris Johnson terminated the contract with the Franco-Austrian vaccine manufacturer Valneva, which plunges the company into a veritable crisis.
The British are also not squeamish when it comes to armaments: The new Indo-Pacific military pact between the USA, Great Britain and Australia led to the cancellation of a billion-dollar contract for the French submarine industry. It’s against China – even if all those involved try to allay their fears.
Sooner or later, Germany will not be able to avoid positioning itself: Will the new federal government succeed in developing transatlantic relations in a spirit of partnership, and can Berlin also maintain independent relations with Beijing and Moscow? Because of its economic strength, Germany would have to play an appropriate role in the geopolitical game of forces.
After all, Angela Merkel succeeded in getting the German-Russian-European pipeline project Nord Stream 2 to make ends meet. The pipeline was completed despite the greatest opposition. But will it really be able to start operating in the foreseeable future? In the political assessment of this question, the Greens and the SPD have so far come to completely different assessments. With Gerhard Schröder as Gazprom lobbyist, the SPD has a credibility problem. The anti-Russian rhetoric of the Greens, on the other hand, may be good for pithy slogans from the opposition, but that is not enough for governing.
The same applies to European politics, where there were irreconcilable positions before the election: Actually, the FDP wanted to put a stop to unlimited debt-making for many years. But the coalition agreement shows that Christian Lindner has already buckled on this front. The applause from Paris came promptly and confirmed that instead of an honest financial policy there will be a “business as usual!”.
Actually, Lindner, who will be a member of the “Eurogroup” as finance minister, would have a lot of power to insist on solid finances in Europe. However, the government’s hands are tied because of the high debt and costs of the pandemic. Constraints reign inexorably.
It is a sign of bravery that Annalena Baerbock throws herself into the fray as Federal Foreign Minister in this situation. She is completely inexperienced in classical diplomacy. But who knows: maybe this is your great chance to make a difference?