2024-03-31 03:54:23
Only a few days are left for the Lok Sabha elections. All political parties are busy in election preparations. Rallies and public meetings are taking place at various places. In this general election, both BJP and opposition have made big claims. We are telling you 5 factors that will decide the direction of Lok Sabha elections.
New Delhi : The bugle of general elections has been sounded. The counting of votes for the seven-phase election will take place on June 4 and the first phase of elections is scheduled to be held on April 19. In a way, the India Alliance can start the last phase of the election campaign with a joint rally in Delhi on Sunday, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi can start the BJP’s campaign from Meerut on the same day. In such a situation, let us know 5 such factors which will decide the direction of the elections:
1. UP-Bihar will decide everything
Even though the general elections are being held on 543 Lok Sabha seats, only 120 seats of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar will decide who will sit on the throne of Delhi. Even in the 2019 and 2014 general elections, if Narendra Modi came to power with a huge majority, the reason behind it was the huge mandate of these two states. In 2019, the BJP alliance got 103 seats in both the states. Last time, despite the alliance of Samajwadi Party and BSP in UP, BJP won a big victory. This time BSP is different. Also Jayant is with BJP. According to experts, this time BJP is hoping to increase some seats in these two states. At the same time, the opposition knows that if BJP’s seats are not reduced in these two states, it will be very difficult to stop BJP from coming to power for the third consecutive time.
2. One seat, one candidate experiment
This time the opposition is trying to give one seat, one candidate to stop BJP. The opposition believes that if BJP has a common candidate and votes are not divided, then the NDA under the leadership of Modi can be stopped. But on how many seats this will happen, the picture is not completely clear yet. Mayawati did not come along in a big state like UP. In such a situation, the picture will be clear after the final line up is revealed. BJP claims that even if this happens it will not make any difference. For this, she is citing the 2019 election results, when the party got more than 50 percent votes on 223 seats.
3. What a dent in the votes of poor farmers
Modi government has succeeded in changing the character of BJP to a great extent in the last 10 years. The effort to change the social basis for this was also successful to a great extent. Be it the Ujjwala scheme or the scheme to provide houses to the poor or the grant of Rs 6,000 every year to farmers, Modi has expanded his vote among the poor. This is called the ‘bottom of the pyramid vote’. Earlier, BJP’s hold in this class was weak. To make a dent in this, the opposition has come out with populist promises.
4. Mathematics vs Chemistry
This time many new types of alliances were formed in the general elections. First the opposition experimented in the name of India Alliance. However, it also suffered a setback after Nitish Kumar joined NDA and Mamata Banerjee walked away from the seat agreement. But in many places he definitely appeared strong in the election mathematical data. To counter this, at the last moment BJP also merged many parties with NDA. However, no agreement could be reached between Odisha and Punjab. Elections are not won and fought only on mathematics. Chemistry is also necessary for this. The alliance which will be successful in strengthening mathematics and turning chemistry in its favor will have better results.
5. Narrative and system of political parties
In the end, the political party whose system will be better and which will be successful in bringing its voters to the booth in closely contested elections will be at advantage. Obviously money and other resources will also be an important factor in this. Among them, booth management will also decide the direction of the elections. What kind of chemistry is created between RSS and BJP till the elections, how the opposition parties counter the political resources of BJP. How much detail is given to the election campaign, all these things will also decide the election. Till now the opposition has not brought any strong narrative. At the same time, BJP under the leadership of Modi has succeeded in creating psychological pressure with slogans exceeding 400.
About Narendra Nath
Narendra Nathanrendra Nath is an assistant editor at Navbharat Times. He closely follows the news related to politics and will keep you informed about every development in this regard. We also cover PMO and will try to deliver every news related to this. … Read More
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