2023-10-03 00:36:30
In East Asia, the young democracy of Mongolia is caught between two autocratic neighbors, China and Russia, on which it is economically dependent. The vast arid desert country has recently become of global strategic importance for its mineral-rich subsoil.
Mongolia is engaged in a difficult balancing act. On the one hand, it is building economic ties with Canada, the United States and Europe, and on the other, it must avoid triggering conflicts with its historic neighbors with authoritarian aims. The governments of the three countries also held a meeting on security issues last week and professed that they would establish a fair and reasonable new world order.
At the gates of the Gobi Desert, a four-hour drive from the capital, Ulaanbaatar, a confusing journey through time awaits visitors who pass by in the small town of Bayantal. A look back which allows us to understand the extent of the links which still exist today between Mongolia and Russia.
Semi-wild horses wander near a former military airstrip, among dilapidated buildings. Abandoned Soviet military barracks, vast austere residential complexes made of concrete with shattered windows, transport travelers to the height of the Cold War.
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Semi-wild horses roam near the old air base.
Photo : Radio-Canada / Philippe Leblanc
Inside these buildings, the marks of this era refuse to fade. Soviet newspapers dating from 1971 still adorn some walls.
The Soviet air base abandoned since the 1980s is a reminder that Mongolia was part of the Soviet bloc until 1990. The base was built with Mongolia’s permission to protect the USSR against a possible Chinese offensive.
The symbols of the USSR are also present almost everywhere in Mongolia. A large monument on a hill overlooking Ulaanbaatar was erected to mark the long-standing friendship between the Soviets and Mongols. The Kremlin likes to repeat that it was thanks to him that Mongolia obtained its independence from China in 1921.
Despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine last year, a majority of Mongolians still view Russia favorably.
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The remains of a Mig mounted in front of a Soviet air base abandoned since the 1980s.
Photo : Radio-Canada / Philippe Leblanc
In the West, we view the Soviet Union primarily as an authoritarian and oppressive place, says Julian Dierkes, associate professor in the Inner Asia program at the University of British Columbia. But let’s keep in mind that this alliance brought a lot of social development to Mongolia. We can think of areas such as literacy or infant mortality, public health in general, urban planning and the growth of the capital.
Economic dependence on China and Russia
Mongolia, a vast country with a population of just 3.5 million, depends on Russia for its supplies of energy and other goods. Imports of Russian oil, iron and wheat there totaled US$1.81 billion in 2021.
About 93% of all Mongolia’s exports go to its other autocratic neighbor, China. Exports of coal, iron ore and copper exceeded $7.6 billion in 2021. Because of the importance of this economic dependence, China can exert intense pressure on Mongolia.
Mongolians are pragmatic people and they realize that without China and its influence on the Mongolian economy, we could simply be in big trouble, believes Sumati Luvsandendev, who heads the independent pollster Sant Maral in Mongolia.
A pragmatic approach reinforced, according to him, after the temporary economic sanctions imposed by China in 2016 due to the visit to Mongolia of the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan spiritual leader in exile. Tibet is occupied by China, which has designated it as an autonomous region. Beijing refuses to recognize the authority of the Dalai Lama.
His pressure on Mongolia worked. Ulaanbaatar announced that the Dalai Lama would no longer be invited there. However, he has visited Mongolia a few times since the 1990s.
The situation in Mongolia further deteriorated during the COVID-19 pandemic with the closure of Chinese borders. Without Chinese investment and export benefits, the construction sector came to a complete standstill for almost two years in Mongolia. The quality of life has eroded and food prices have soared.
A fragile young democracy
Mongolia turned to democracy in 1990, after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Soviet Empire. It now wants to strengthen its ties with the West, as illustrated by the Prime Minister’s recent visit to Washington at the beginning of August.
A thoughtful and public decision despite the need to appease its warlike neighbors and the prospect of the construction of an oil pipeline between Siberia and Beijing. The pipeline has been in the works for several years, but today seems more urgent for Moscow. It would crisscross Mongolia and bring enormous financial benefits.
During his visit to Washington in August, Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene said he wanted to believe that China and Russia would not perceive his actions as provocation and that they would respect his trade choices. as well as its rapprochement with Europe and the United States. Several countries wish to have access to Mongolia’s significant mineral deposits, including those of rare earths.
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United States Vice President Kamala Harris met with Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene at the White House in Washington on August 2.
Photo : Reuters / KEVIN WURM
If the world moves toward some kind of bipolar bloc led by the United States and China, the biggest risk for Mongolia would be that China asks it to choose, believes Julian Dierkes of the University of British Columbia . If she suddenly said, “Are you with them or are you with us?”, that would be a disastrous choice to make.
Preserving Mongolia’s young democracy is proving difficult. According to experts, the authoritarian models of China and Russia somehow influence the perception of the population. The Mongolian public’s trust in its institutions is eroding due to corruption scandals. Russian and Chinese disinformation amplifies the problems.
Russia and China would like the political system here not to be an obstacle to the one they have in their countries, says Sumati Luvsandendev of the Sant Maral polling institute. Otherwise, it could set a so-called bad example for their own population.
The difficult balancing act between the West and the new Russia-China bloc which wants to reshuffle the global chessboard is experienced on a daily basis in Mongolia, and even more so today.
First report in a series of four on Mongolia
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