Monitoring Iss, Rt exceeds 1 after two months: Net acceleration of the pandemic

After almost two months the Rt index, that is the index of transmissibility of contagion, in Italy exceeds 1. According to what emerges from today’s weekly monitoring, Friday 5 March, of the epidemiological situation of our country carried out by the Higher Institute of Health and the Ministry of Health, the national average Rt index went from 0.99 last week to 1,06: the virus transmissibility index has therefore undergone a significant increase. The occupancy of places in intensive care is also growing (+ 26%) and the incidence of variants weighs more and more on the curve.

According to what emerges from the monitoring in fact in the period 10-23 February l’Rt average calculated on symptomatic cases was equal to 1.06 with a range from 0.98 to 1.20: this is an increase compared to the previous week that brings the Rt above 1 for the first time in seven weeks. What is most worrying is the fact that the new cases mostly emerge outside the so-called chains of contagion: “There is a sharp increase in the number of new cases not associated with transmission chains (41,833 vs 31,378 the previous week), and the percentage of cases detected through contact tracing (28.8% vs 29.4%) “. Furthermore, while contact tracing led to the detection of 29.4 percent of cases up until last week, this week the percentage of cases resulting from tracing is 28.8 percent. The percentage of cases detected through the appearance of symptoms also fell: if last week the figure was still at 36.1%, this week the figure stands at 35.2%.

“In the week of February 22-28, after a period of growth, a clear acceleration is observed in the increase in incidence a national level compared to the previous week (194.87 per 100,000 inhabitants (22/02 / 2021-28 / 02/2021) vs 145.16 per 100,000 inhabitants (15/02 / 2021-21 / 02/2021) – reads the Report of the Control room Iss-Ministry of Health – the national incidence in the monitoring week, therefore, moves away from levels (50 per 100,000) that would allow the complete restoration of the identification of cases and tracing of their contacts throughout the national territory and indeed it is approaching the threshold of 250 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants “.


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