2024-08-27 09:00:23
Is there a way to predict how severe the disease will be in people infected with the Mpox virus? An Italian study found associated factors that can allow us to understand in time whether the patient will develop a serious form and that guides doctors in the management decisions of the case, especially in the early stages. And one of the areas on which the authors shed light is viral fear. “Elevated respiratory rate values in the first week of infection,” they suggest, are “a possible predictor of severe Mpox infection,” an infection known as monkeypox before its name was changed for dubious reasons. .
Research by the Mpox-Icona group – which involves experts from many companies and universities in Italy, from the Lazzaro Spallanzani Institute in Rome to the Sacco hospital in Milan, from the San Martino Polyclinic in Genoa to Paolo Giaccone Polyclinic in Palermo, from the San Raffaele in Niguarda in Milan, and again Aorn Ospedali dei Colli in Naples, San Gerardo in Monza, Gemelli University Hospital in Rome and Fondazione Icona in Milan – evaluate the predictions of the values of Mpox, analyzed the kinetics of inflammatory markers and described the detection of Mpxv viral DNA in serum after clinical recovery. The work published in ‘eBioMedicine’, as epidemiologist Matteo Bassetti also explained on
Other points noted are that “Caucasian race and presentation with fever, sore throat, lymphadenopathy and perianal lesions may” also “predict a serious evolution of the disease”. But in particular, typically “high Ct values of the upper respiratory tract during the first week of infection”. These results may help to develop a laboratory technique with measurements of poor clinical evolution in the early stages of infection, even in patients without skin lesions.
The authors start from the fact that severe and long studies of Mpox were described in the 2022-2023 epidemic. A multicenter historical cohort study therefore observed adults with a clinical diagnosis between May 2022 and September 2023 in 15 Italian centers. Cases were followed from the date of diagnosis until hospital recovery. A total of 541 patients were enrolled, including 4 women. Average age: 38 years. Severe form was reported in 215 patients (39.7%). No one died.
Analyzing the “significant difference” observed between the viral load of patients with a mild infection and those who developed a severe infection, experts found that the risk of developing severe disease was reduced “by up to 5% for each increase in Ct”, the highest. the value, the more it indicates a lower viral load. In other words, the reduction in viral load seen in the upper respiratory tract also reduces the risk of severe disease. The experts also noted that “the pox virus does not show a tendency to cause specific organ damage. Furthermore, the study showed the spread of the virus in various anatomical sites after clinical recovery, although definitive definitions cannot be made of the infection. “.
The direct association between Ct values above the plane and the severity of Mpox, the authors conclude, “suggests its potential use as a laboratory tool, with known clinical prognostic factors, for the early management of cases and to identify people who are at serious risk. disease. This may facilitate early initiation of antiviral treatment or referral for hospitalization, especially among the most vulnerable populations, such as those with advanced HIV infection. Continued international surveillance is important to improve the current containment strategies and future responses to outbreaks among members of key populations. “
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