2023-12-12 04:29:05
Will the EU set a precise calendar for its new enlargement?
The EU is unlikely to set a precise timetable, as member states typically have to meet all sorts of criteria. Traditionally they are called “chapters.” When all the “chapters” have been completed, a candidate country will be able to join. Normally this would take a long time. Therefore, in the new world, a “target date” (something like 2030) may be proposed. But whether that means any new member states will be ready to fully integrate into the EU at that time remains to be seen; in fact, it is unlikely. In the past, “enlargement” meant that a country would adopt the so-called Acquis Communautaire (all laws and treaties) in its entirety. These days there are more voices that perhaps the EU needs to accept that new Member States do not join all aspects of integration from the beginning, but participate more or less in some parts of the EU, but not all. This is uncharted territory for the EU. It has always insisted that enlargement means becoming a full member, even if in reality some EU members did not participate in all EU activities (for example, the United Kingdom, when it was a member, was not part of Schengen or of the euro). Furthermore, both Norway and Switzerland are not members of the EU, but they have a lot of cooperation with the EU. These countries usually adopt EU policies, laws and regulations. as a matter of principle.
Which countries are in the best position to integrate sooner?
There are currently eight candidate countries (Turkey, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Albania, Moldova, Ukraine and Bosnia Herzegovina). The latter three were granted membership status only a year ago. Currently, Montenegro and Serbia are the two countries that have made the most progress in preparing their country for accession. Therefore, if a recent speech by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs (Joseph Borrell) is to be believed, the next enlargement may be as soon as 2030; In that case, those two countries would be the most likely to be ready to join the EU in 2030.
What are the most urgent reforms that the EU needs before incorporating new members?
The EU will only be able to accept new members after it has carried out some reforms. There are currently a number of points that observers are raising about which reforms are most desperately needed. Some observers point out the difficulty for the EU in making serious decisions because governance is slow. Others talk about the small budget of the European Union for important strategic supranational expenditures. These funds could be used to rework the energy market, spend more on joint initiatives and be able to provide funds for new member states joining the EU. Furthermore, assuming that the EU will help Ukraine with reconstruction (whether it is a member or not) will cost billions of euros. At the moment, the EU cannot find those funds in the EU budget, even though Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, has pledged to cover about half the cost of rebuilding Ukraine ( using grants and loans based on the EU budget), assuming, of course, that the war will end at some point in the not-too-distant future.
Could Ukraine’s European integration be on the table in hypothetical peace negotiations?
The EU is eager to help Ukraine achieve peace, support it during the war and offer a hand to reach out and support it. The offer that Ukraine can become a candidate country must be seen from that perspective. However, until now membership has been a very formalistic process. Member states must follow all rules before they can join. Given Ukraine’s history of poor rule of law and rampant corruption before the war, it is not immediately clear that Ukraine is ready to join the EU any time soon. Still, there are many voices in Europe that would support creating a different path to bring Ukraine closer to the EU. To date, we have not heard of EU membership being part of any peace agreement. The EU is already having a hard enough time ensuring that its members comply with EU laws once they are in the EU; Some member countries will not be so enthusiastic about admitting Ukraine when it is not yet ready. Expansion requires unanimity.
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