Moonquakes Pose Unexpected Threat to Artemis Program and Future Lunar Habitats
New research reveals that seismic activity on the Moon, often underestimated, presents a significant and growing risk to NASA’s Artemis program and the long-term viability of lunar bases. While meteorite impacts have long been considered the primary driver of lunar landscape changes, recent findings demonstrate that moonquakes – seismic events occurring beneath the lunar surface – are also responsible for substantial shifts in the lunar terrain.
The groundbreaking study, detailed in the ‘Paleoseismic Activity Study in the Taurus-Littrow Valley’ and based on analyses of stone formations and landslides, has profound implications for the future of lunar exploration. For decades, scientists believed meteorite collisions were the dominant force shaping the Moon’s surface. However, this new research challenges that assumption, suggesting moonquakes have played a crucial, and previously unacknowledged, role.
Unearthing Lunar Seismic Activity in the Taurus-Littrow Valley
A detailed examination of the Taurus-Littrow valley – the site of the historic Apollo 17 mission – revealed seismic activity that has reshaped the area over millions of years. Although meteorite impacts continue to contribute to lunar evolution, it is the moonquake that appears to be the primary cause of landslides and the collapse of rock formations, demonstrating the considerable power of these lunar seismic events.
“We do not have a strong movement instrument that can measure seismic activity on the moon as we have on earth, so we have to find other ways to evaluate how possible the movement of land, such as the fall of chunks of stones and landslides triggered by this seismic event,” explained a researcher from The Daily Galaxy. This highlights the challenges of monitoring lunar seismic activity and the need for innovative methods to assess the risk.
Active Faults and the Risk to Lunar Infrastructure
One of the most concerning discoveries is the identification of active faults on the Moon, such as the Lee-Lincoln fault. These fractures, which have been active for millions of years, could pose a significant threat to future lunar bases. The study indicates these faults are still capable of generating earthquakes today, a particularly worrying prospect given their proximity to potential landing sites and areas of scientific interest.
“Global distribution of young push faults such as the Lee-Lincoln fault, its potential to remain active, and the potential for the formation of new push fractures due to sustainable contractions must be considered when planning locations and assessing the stability of permanent front posts on the moon,” stated Thomas R. Watters, a senior scientist at the Smithsonian. This underscores the necessity of incorporating seismic risk assessment into the planning stages of any long-term lunar infrastructure, including habitats and research stations.
Assessing the Probability of Lunar Earthquakes
While the likelihood of a catastrophic moonquake is relatively low, it is not negligible. Researchers estimate the chance of a destructive moonquake near an active fault is approximately one in 20 million per day. While seemingly small, this probability accumulates significantly over the duration of long-term lunar missions.
“The risk of a large disaster is not zero, and although small, it is not something that can be fully ignored when planning long-term infrastructure on the surface of the moon,” the researcher added. For a mission lasting a decade, the risk increases to roughly one in 5,500 – a substantially higher probability, comparable to a significant lottery win. This comparison vividly illustrates the importance of accurately calculating lunar seismic risk during mission planning.
Implications for the Artemis Program and Sustainable Lunar Presence
The findings have far-reaching implications, particularly for the Artemis program’s ambitious goal of establishing a sustainable human presence on the Moon. Short-duration missions, like the Apollo landings, faced a relatively low risk from lunar earthquakes. However, long-term missions, especially those involving permanent habitats, are significantly more vulnerable.
“If an astronaut is there for a day, they will be very unlucky if a destructive event occurs,” the researcher explained. “But if you have a habitat or manned mission on the Moon for a full decade, it means 3,650 days multiplied by 1 to 20 million, or the risk of a dangerous moonquake rises to around 1 to 5,500. This is similar to switching from the chances of winning a very low lottery to a much higher opportunity.” This altered risk profile demands meticulous planning to ensure the structural integrity of any long-term lunar outpost.
Experts emphasize the importance of strategic site selection for future lunar exploration, given the identified seismic hazards. To mitigate the risk of earthquake damage, the research team recommends avoiding the construction of permanent lunar bases near active faults like the Lee-Lincoln fault.
“We want to ensure that moon exploration is carried out safely and investment is carried out in a way that is thought carefully. The conclusion we get is: do not build right above the steep cliffs, or newly active fractures. The farther from the steep cliffs, the smaller the dangers,” the researcher concluded. Careful consideration of these seismic risks is paramount to ensuring the safety and success of humanity’s return to the Moon.
