2023-12-01 16:55:00
Do you know its history and how it works? It covers almost all the advances in the world of exponential ICT that are based on the ever-increasing computational capacity which in turn drives the advances of robotics, data science, the Internet of things, biotechnology, different spaces of virtual reality, the metaverse, autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence among others.
During the last 60 years since, in 1965, Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, published an article in which he observed that from 1959 to 1965, the number of transistors in an integrated circuit had doubled approximately every 18 months and with it He projected that this would continue for some time. This concept has remained valid for practically six decades and is known as “Moore’s Law.”
A historical review to illustrate the accuracy of Moore’s Law, In 1971 Intel launched its first commercial product, a four-bit CPU called the Intel 4004 integrated circuit that had 2300 transistors with a gate length of 10,000 nano meters and a computer power of approximately 740 KHz. At that time each transistor cost about a dollar on average. Today the cost of each transistor is approximately 1 billion times less than in the 1970s; and where the biggest difference lies is that a large number of them can be placed on a single chip. For example, in 2022 NVIDIA launched a graphics processing unit, the RTX 4090, which contains 76,000 million transistors, or Apple’s M1 Ultra, which has an incredible amount of 114,000 million transistors, meaning an improvement of 100,000 million times as stated. predicts Moore’s law.
Regarding this, Moore himself highlights the importance with an analogy indicating “if the automotive industry were to advance as fast as the semiconductor industry, a Rolls Royce would travel half a million kilometers per gallon and it would be cheaper to throw it away than to park it,” but the law Moore’s only has to do with the growth of computational capacity and using integrated circuits.
But Ray Kurzwell In his best seller “The Singularity is Near” described the exponential growth of pre-integrated circuit computing during the last 120 years where it has gone through five different stages: from electromechanical computers; based on relays, those based on vacuum tubes, computers based on transients and finally integrated circuits appear and converts Moori’s law, based on the latest paradigm of closed circuits, into a subset of a broader exponential principle expressed in the “Law of accelerated returns” by Kurzwell himself.
Peter Diamandis based on these concepts indicates that the world is becoming more abundant every day on multiple critical fronts, which he describes as “data-driven optimism.” Exposing his concept of the 6D, which he begins with digitalization. where everything that is digitized is represented by ones and zeros, entering the same exponential growth curve described before.
With this information, products and services and the corresponding digital applications are easy to duplicate, distribute and share where they can spread at the speed of the Internet in the same exponential way.
Examples of this digitalization are the growth of companies, Amazon, which went from selling books online to all the products that anyone can think of and want.
The same can be said about the sale of agencies or ticket offices, whether for shows or trips, where today the majority are sold online in multiple markets, thus attracting potential customers. This has allowed transportation, the digitalization of banking and Fintech, and education to be digitized. Genome sequencing and CRISPR technology will revolutionize the health industry through digital medicine.
These concepts are also applicable to digital agriculture through sensors, drones and other types of detection of plant health, adequate availability of nutrients, temperature, etc. to improve their yields, which allows the development of other productive processes such as vertical farms that become efficient both in space, yields, use of water and fertilizers that are reduced by up to 90% and thus multiple other activities that we will continue in a next publication.
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