more than a month after the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, “we have returned to a pure war of position”

2023-07-03 18:37:35

“We returned to a pure war of position”

A few Russian gains in the Donbass, modest Ukrainian breakthroughs in the South, a generally frozen front: more than a month after the start of the Kiev counter-offensive, none of the belligerents seems able to make decisive progress. However, it would be unwise to draw hasty conclusions from this, insists French military historian Michel Goya to Agence France-Presse, for whom the front remains generally frozen, neither side having the means to crush the ‘other.

“The Russians are in a defensive position in the Zaporizhia-Donetsk area, which does not prevent them from carrying out peripheral operations (…) to try to fix Ukrainian forces. Ukrainians do the same in the Donbass region or cross the Dnieper. It’s a bit of a diversion, it forces the Russians to move part of their forces.analyzes the author of the book The Bear and the Fox: immediate history of the war in Ukraine (ed. Perrin). But, “in reality, these operations on both sides are tiny, they do not change the strategic context”he believes. “It’s been seven months that the front has hardly moved. We returned to a pure war of position.he argues, due to strong lines of defense but also a “lack of support”artillery in particular, to neutralize enemy defenses and launch infantry and tanks.

“The problem, for example, in the case of the Ukrainian offensive in the south, is that there are far fewer support units than combat units. That’s why the Ukrainians only use a fraction of their brigades: they can’t support more.”explains Michel Goya. “To be able to advance you need a deluge of shells, which requires a great superiority of fire. Ukrainians do not have it. Neither did the Russians, although they may have had it at some point.”he concludes, noting that the army of Vladimir Putin “admittedly has more artillery pieces than the Ukrainians, but has reduced its efforts due to lack of sufficient ammunition stocks”to a maximum of 10,000 to 20,000 shells per day, compared to 40,000 to 60,000 a year ago.