2024-09-18 03:06:18
Hezbollah was caught off guard on Tuesday. Hundreds of radio call receivers of its members, called pagers, have been planted in various parts of the country. According to Lebanon’s Health Minister, Firass Abiad, 2,750 people were injured and nine died. Most of those affected had injuries “to the face, hands, stomach or even the eyes”. According to media reports, Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon was also slightly injured. Although the Israeli government has not commented on the alleged cyberattack, it is clearly an act of Israeli sabotage. Reuters news agency quoted a Hezbollah source as saying it was the “biggest security breach” in the year-long war.
Videos of devices exploding immediately after contact have been widely shared online. Security authorities ordered residents in the affected areas to keep roads clear for emergency vehicles. There are calls for blood donations. There were scenes of chaos in the hospitals, and the wail of sirens quickly reached the faraway areas of the southern countryside where Hezbollah was treating.
Israel’s access to communications has long been a problem for the Shiite organization. It has already been the target of Israeli intelligence services to obtain information about the location of its commanders. These were repeatedly killed by Israeli drone strikes. Hezbollah’s leadership has banned the use of cell phones for months.
Earlier in the evening, the Shiite army has released a statement that says that the relevant services are conducting an extensive security study to find the reasons for the simultaneous explosions. People should beware of personalization and mind-war.
In Beirut, such events quickly raised the question of whether they could be proud of a war full of modesty. This is also the case with an alleged cyber attack that has made Iran’s Shiite organization suspicious. Is this preparation for a major attack?
Netanyahu took action against Gallant
Signs soon point to escalation again. The Israeli Air Force has recently increased its awareness of its attacks. And the threats have also increased. On Tuesday it was announced that Israel has set a new war goal: thousands of people who may have fled northern Israel during the war with Hezbollah should be able to return safely to their homes. This was announced by the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
With the decision of the minister of defense, a solution on the northern front joins the war goals that have been limited to Gaza: the destruction of the military forces of Hamas, the release of the government equipment, the return of the clutches and the elimination of the future threat to them the security of Israel. The development is the latest of several signs that Israel is changing further the situation on the Israel-Lebanon border. And the leader is still pushing the message that he is seriously considering a military solution to this issue.
Netanyahu called for “radical change” on the northern border to US special envoy Amos Hochstein. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the time for a civil government solution is running out. “Therefore, the only option left is military action.” Washington is trying to convince Israel’s leadership that a deal like this would not be very different. And a major attack on Hezbollah could easily unleash a regional war that could make the return of displaced people to northern Israel impossible in the long term.
It is unclear whether the administration of President Joe Biden will continue to have Gallant, who is valued in Washington, as a communication partner if Israel goes into full-scale war with Hezbollah. According to consistent reports in the Israeli press, the new political strategy by Netanyahu to replace the defense minister despite the ongoing war (in Gaza) and the imminent war (in Lebanon) is well advanced. The relationship between the two is considered very difficult for several reasons. Gallant wants Netanyahu to stop blocking the path to a settlement agreement. It also stands in the way of the government’s plan to challenge a Supreme Court ruling that even Orthodox Jews can no longer be exempt from military service.
Warnings and assurances of victory in Israel
Misinformation in the Israeli press has given the impression that Netanyahu is confused by Gallant’s very soft stance toward confrontation with Hezbollah. The defense minister was one of those who submitted to the pre-emptive strike against the Shiite organization of the administration of Iran in the first days after the terrorist attack of Hamas on October 7th. His argument is that a person should first face a strong enemy, not when a person is tired of fighting against a weak enemy. Gallant later refused to do so because he could not find a good time.
The man given to replace him is not known as an experienced military man, but as an old rival of Netanyahu: right-wing politician Gideon Saar. He has shown himself to be a strong opponent of the deal with Hamas to release the killers and a supporter of the ultra-Orthodox who insist on their special status not having to serve in the armed forces.
In the Israeli press, Netanyahu’s moves are portrayed as opportunistic and critical. Saar himself is known for sharp attacks on Netanyahu. When Gallant was fired in the spring of 2023 in a dispute over judicial reform, Saar described it as “an act of madness that shows a complete lack of justice.” A US official described Gallant’s possible replacement as “crazy” to the Axios news portal.
There is concern among Western officials that Israel’s security establishment may underestimate the military challenge posed by Hezbollah because the war of attrition is now proving very successful for the country. His features confirm this concern and appear confident of victory. Others, however, warn that a war against Hezbollah is unwinnable. After a year of war of attrition, Israel has not achieved its war goals in Gaza. They are hoping that Netanyahu’s Lebanon progress is also a tactic. On Tuesday, it became clear that his country hit Hezbollah in a major attack.
How can pagers explode?
Technically, it is possible to detonate a device equipped with a modern lithium-ion battery from a distance, even without explosives. To do this, the software on the device must be manipulated in such a way that the battery will heat up. This can be achieved, for example, by automatically activating particularly high-energy functions and activating the normally available manual shutdown.
If the temperature of the battery rises to a threshold – the level depends on the type of battery – a chain reaction begins, which experts call “thermal runaway”, which ends with a sudden release of energy.
The software doesn’t even have to ship with the device; However, making such an update without the knowledge of the manufacturer requires a lot of effort, which suggests that a state actor is involved.
Battery intervention will be prohibited if explosions have occurred at the same time. Although it is possible for even a computer science student to link the execution of a specific function to a defined point in time, thermal dissipation depends on chemical reactions within the battery that cannot be timed to the second. It was initially unclear how simultaneous the explosions occurred.
The consequences of causing an explosion in this way depend on the size of the battery. Today’s pagers have roughly the storage capacity of a small smartphone (3600 milliamperes hour). (long.)
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