A total of 1,261,990 people will die of cancer in 2023 in the European Union (EU). This is revealed by research published in the Annals of Oncology. The document predicts a decrease in lung cancer mortality rates in most EU countries, with exceptions such as Spain, France and Italy, where it will increase among women.
Researchers led by Carlo La Vecchia, a professor at the University of Milan (Italy), estimate that there will be a 6.5% drop in cancer death rates in men and 3.7% in women between 2018 and 2023.
The report also predicts that death rates for the ten most common cancers will continue to fall in most European countries in 2023, even though the number of people who will die will increase due to population ageing. A higher proportion of older people in the population means that there are a greater number at the age when they are most likely to develop and die from cancer.
Compared with a peak in cancer death rates in 1988, the researchers estimate that almost 5.9 million deaths will have been averted in the 35 years between 1989 and 2023 in the EU.
«If the current trajectory of declining cancer death rates continues, a further 35% reduction is possible by 2035». And one of the factors that contribute to this situation is the reduction in the number of smokers who quit.
But in addition, Carlo La Vecchia points out, “greater efforts are needed to control the growing epidemic of overweight, obesity and diabetes, alcohol consumption and infections, together with improvements in detection, early diagnosis and treatment”.
This positive data, unfortunately, is not reflected in women, where death rates from lung cancer continue to rise in the EU.
They also call attention to pancreatic cancer, since death rates from this disease will not decrease among men and will increase by 3.4% in women in the EU. “Smoking may account for between a quarter and a third of these deaths, and women, particularly in the middle and older age groups, have not stopped smoking as soon as men,” La Vecchia comments.
The researchers looked at cancer death rates in the 27 EU Member States together and in the UK separately. They also looked at the five most populous EU countries (France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain) and individually for cancers of the stomach, intestines, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus (including cervix ), ovaries, prostate, bladder, and leukemias for men and women.
Women, particularly in the middle and older age groups, have not quit smoking as soon as men
When the researchers looked specifically at lung cancer death rates in five EU countries, as well as the UK, they found that while death rates are projected to decline in men in all six countries, in women will increase by almost 14% in France. 5.6% in Italy and 5% in Spain.
Among women of different age groups, the researchers found a decrease in predicted death rates from lung cancer among those aged 25 to 64, but an increase in those aged 65 to over 75, and consequently a overall increase.
“This is because women now between the ages of 45 and 65, born in the 1960s and 1970s, have smoked less and quit earlier than those born in the 1950s, who were in their twenties at the 1970s, when smoking was more common among young women,” says Eva Negri, from the University of Bologna (Italy), and co-leader of the research.
The researchers say organized screening programs using low-dose computed tomography (CT) could reduce lung cancer deaths by up to 20%. However, there are no such organized programs in Europe, and it is too early to assess the impact of screening in the UK, after the trial. Lung Cancer Screening.
Obesity
The researchers highlight the role that overweight and obesity play in cancers such as postmenopausal breast cancer, endometrial cancer, stomach cancer, and colorectal cancer. Although death rates from stomach cancer are declining overall, mainly due to better food preservation methods, healthier diets, and a decline in Helicobacter pylori infection, about one-third of stomach cancers now occur in the cardia. , the entrance to the stomach, and are associated with overweight and obesity and therefore reflux, which is a risk factor for the development of cancer at this site. For colorectal cancer, death rates are falling in the EU, but the decline has slowed in the UK.
Now, the researchers caution that their estimates do not take into account the Covid pandemic, which occurred after the dates for which data on cancer deaths were available.
«The Covid-19 pandemic may have had an effect on cancer mortality in 2023 as a result of visits and delayed procedures, influencing both secondary prevention and treatment, and management of cancer disease,” they write.