2023-04-23 15:30:10
However, what if I already borrowed dollars to buy a home. The placement of mortgage loans in this currency amounts to US$ 1,490 millionaccording to data from the Central Reserve Bank (BCR) of February. Is it a good time to convert it to local currency?
During the second part of 2021, the exchange rate exceeded S/ 4.00 (S/ per US$). By 2022, it was slightly below S/ 4.00. In recent months it seems to be ‘accommodating’ around S/ 3.7.
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For Jorge Luis Ojeda, professor of finance at UPC Business School, “You should always think about changing (a loan) to soles in the obvious case that the income is in that currency. Is this a good time to do it? Yes, it’s a good time to do it”.
comment that the exchange rate is parked at around S/ 3.75 and has practically broken even (although still above pre-pandemic levels).
“The exchange rate is defined by an equilibrium equation between the referential interest rate and inflation. In Peru the interest rate has been raised very violently. So, let’s imagine that we were foreigners and had money; we see that in Peru term deposits are paying 8%, it becomes interesting. That is why we are receiving a lot of money that is called swallow investment”, details.
It should be remembered that the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) began its reference rate increase cycle in August 2021. Currently, en April it was the third month that the bank did not raise the rate, but it did keep it at 7.75%.
In the case of the United States, despite the banking tensions, Fed members raised interest rates by a quarter point at their March 21-22 meeting. The move pushed its benchmark rate target to a range of 4.75% to 5%, from almost zero the previous year.
“This could be reversed at some point (the downward trend of the exchange rate). If the capitals leave, they will change from soles to dollars. When will this happen? If the FED raises its rates and the difference is not much with Peru, or if investors feel a risk in the country. Everyone is going to want to change from soles to dollars, and the dollar is going to skyrocket”foresees.
READ ALSO: Bolivians buy soles due to a shortage of dollars.
An additional factor that allowed the sol to appreciate against the dollar was the lower local uncertainty; as well as the recovery in the price of copper globally.
“Given the instability and high inflation rates, working in dollars is not recommended for long-term debt”dice Ana Reátegui, Professor of Finance at ESAN Graduate School of Business.
For Reátegui, in the short term, A good time to change a credit from dollars to soles would be before the fortnight of May. This is because many companies are going to sell dollars to pay the Compensation for Time of Service (CTS).
“If we have to do it, in the short term, let’s choose that date. Moment in which many people are going to offer dollars to get soles and pay the CTS. That is an interesting moment. But do we think the dollar will go back up? In the short term no, can it go down? Maybe a few points.” refers.
Even so, the teacher emphasizes that it is necessary to talk with our sector worker about the possibility of currency exchange as well as about whether there are penalties or any detail indicated in the contract. “There could be a clause that we didn’t know we had and they can charge us a commission”highlight.
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Are mortgage interest rates slowing down?
The rising trend in the cost of mortgages has stopped and interest rates are beginning to stabilize. The average bank interest rate for mortgage loans stands at 9.86% to date, after having reached 10.10% in February.
After 20 months of reporting an upward trend, since June 2021 when it reached a minimum of 5.87%, that rate begins to stabilize.
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