The troops do not retreat, the pressure remains. Russian Foreign Minister: Donbass and Crimea resolved knots. Ukrainian stop: our sovereignty must be restored
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negotiators say they are optimistic, but I notice that going out of their way to achieve something is part of their role. On the other hand, those who observe the negotiations from afar and, above all, what continues to happen in Ukraine tend more to share the idea of the Americans and the British: you have to watch what Russia is doing and not what she says. And around Kiev the military pressure has not abated. On the contrary, the bombings have increased, a sign that the Moscow troops engaged in that quadrant are reorganizing and do not intend to leave the sector to move to the Donbass front.
Some positives
Then, by studying the proposals made by the Ukrainian delegation and the responses of the Russian counterpart, it becomes increasingly evident that the two governments are still light years away. And in fact the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, yesterday froze the expectations: There are some positive aspects in the negotiations in Istanbul, but no turning point
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Mykhailo Podolyak, President Zelensky’s assistant, was the most optimistic: I have a good impression. His Russian counterpart, Vladimir Medinsky, echoed him, followed by Foreign Minister Sergej Lavrov: Significant progress. Then for Lavrov gives his own interpretation of the Ukrainian position: They understood that the Crimean and Donbass issues have already been resolved once and for all. But it doesn’t seem like that at all. Indeed, the spokesman for the Kiev Foreign Ministry replies: They will be resolved when our sovereignty is restored.
Neutralit
the point on which a true understanding seems to be closest, even if enormous problems remain. No NATO, say the Ukrainians, but EU membership and solid guarantees of independence and security. Western countries (including Italy), China and Russia must formally commit themselves, also with a mechanism that provides for immediate military intervention in the event of a new war. It is very unlikely that the NATO countries are willing to give such a guarantee to Kiev or outside the Alliance. another obstacle when any solution is reached. Already on the neutrality of the country, Kiev says that the choice will have to be subjected to consultation after the Russian troops have withdrawn, returning to the positions they occupied before the invasion.
Donbass
clear that citizens could easily reject the agreement. So? The Russians do not trust, if only because in eight years Poroshenko first and then Zelensky have not managed to get through the Rada administrative autonomy to be granted to the Donbass. Putin will never accept such a botched and uncertain solution. The Ukrainian proposal is a non-proposal. It is said that the problem of the two republics proclaimed independent in 2014 will be resolved in direct talks between Putin and Zelensky. But there is no indication of how to untie the knot. Except that the Ukrainians continue to say that the territorial integrity of the country is not even mentioned. So? The diametrically opposite Russian position: Donetsk and Lugansk they are independent, at least one and a half million Russians live there, complete with Federation passports. If anything, we need to discuss theenlargement of their territory to cover both regions of Ukraine of which they were capitals.
Crimea
For the peninsula that passed to Russia in 2014 with a referendum and annexation, there is a proposal for discussions that could be protracted for 15 years, until Putin should give up his seat in the Kremlin (he will be 84 years old). But what could be the solution? Kiev seems to think of a kind of leasing to Russia, as was the case for the naval base in Sevastopol up to eight years ago. But even in this case, Russia says the opposite, as the spokesman of the Kremlin Peskov repeated yesterday: the Crimea of Moscow is not touched. Incidentally, its two and a half million inhabitants all have Russian passports.
Mariupol
Nobody talks about the southern coast that was conquered by the Russians with the exception of the important port. Will it be returned? For the Kremlin the guarantee of territorial continuity with its Crimea. All things considered, it seems very likely that the two sides’ optimistic statements are mere bluffs.
March 31, 2022 (change March 31, 2022 | 00:42)
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