Since the outbreak of war in Europe four months ago, the Russian military has been crushing and erasing entire cities and populations from the map. It is already clear that the Russian war machine is forever changing the fate of the region, and that the impact of the conflict goes far beyond changing Europe and its borders. The war turned the local struggle against Ukraine and the Ukrainians into a sharp and cross-border geopolitical and ideological struggle.
It is a global, violent and uncompromising struggle between Russia and the West. A struggle between an authoritarian regime and democratic regimes, and between freedom and a dictatorship, the purpose of which is to change the existing world order. This brutal struggle sharpens the huge gaps that exist between conflicting values, and the conflicting attitudes and interests of Washington and Moscow.
While the struggle unites and consolidates NATO and European Union countries, it reinforces the laxity of the Biden administration and the weakness of American policy. To defeat Ukraine, without fear of Western intervention.
Thus, although it is not easy to admit it, the head of the Kremlin is the one who dictates the agenda in Europe, and influences events, trends and processes that take place around the world. This is despite Russia’s international isolation, the contraction of its economy and the strategic-logistical failures of the Russian military.
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Driven by a tremendous passion for power, dark passions, Russian sentiment and a megalomaniacal vision to return to the days of the Tsarist Empire, Putin sows hatred, division and polarization in Europe and beyond. While European and world governments condemn him or bow to him, and even show fatigue, not to mention indifference to his moves, the Kremlin head is reshaping the map of relations, interests and balance of power in the international arena.
At the same time, the strategic gaps, miscalculations and destructive impact of the war, along with its long-term geopolitical, security and economic consequences, cannot be ignored. The hard truth must be told. The war in Europe is not a war of occupation and it is not limited to the issue of the security of Ukraine and the security of the countries of the region. It is a war of attrition that Putin is leading against American hegemony, its global domination and influence, which is taking place simultaneously on several fronts.
This is a blatant violation of international law, seriously undermining the foundations of democracy in order to change the status quo and existing world order on which the international community is based. European Commission President Ursula von der Lane even stressed this last month at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Last Friday, it also declared formal support for Ukraine and its recognition as a candidate country for EU membership, following a meeting of German, French and Italian leaders with President Zlansky in Kiev.
The facts speak for themselves. As the war escalates and Russia continues to wipe out entire cities and provinces, leading to the killing of tens if not hundreds of thousands of people, and the flight of millions of Ukrainian citizens (about 6.5 million refugees, in addition to 7 million displaced persons who fled their homes indefinitely). The belief in neutrality, especially that of Ukraine since its independence in 1991, has been shattered.
It is a catastrophic geopolitical, security and humanitarian crisis, the worst since 1945, threatening the stability of international relations, as defined by the United Nations. Officially as a NATO member.
Here it is important to explain that beyond a profound paradigm shift in the traditional perception of European countries, this is a very significant strategic “domino effect”. The war is triggering an accelerated process of armaments and militarization, which includes increasing defense budgets to 2% of the GDP of those countries, which is reflected in an addition of about 200 billion euros to total military spending.
At the same time, the process of military intensification flowing beyond the continent’s borders is also affecting the escalation of the global nuclear arms race, such as North Korea, which is conducting nuclear tests with the aim of drawing international attention to it.
Grain-free
The invasion of Ukraine and the intensification of international sanctions imposed on Russia have a significant impact on the world economy, with an emphasis on severe damage to the weakened countries in Europe and Central Asia. According to estimates released by the World Bank in April, instead of recovering from the corona crisis and growing at a rate of 3%, their economy is expected to shrink this year by an average rate of 4.1%. This coincides with the contraction of the Ukrainian economy by about 45% in view of the extent of the killing, destruction and human damage to critical industrial and infrastructure centers throughout the country.
In contrast, due to Russia’s important strategic share in global commodity markets including oil, gas, metals and agricultural commodities also related to Ukraine, it is estimated that the Russian economy has shrunk by 8.5% and entered a deep recession due to severe restrictions on its energy sources. 60% of its oil exports to Europe.
However, being the third largest oil producer in the world and the dominant gas supplier to Europe, its revenues from these sources and coal in the first hundred days of the war, which reached about 93 billion euros, according to recent publications in Finland, fund the continued lethal operation of the Russian war machine.
The great tensions and volatility following the war are well evident in the turmoil in the financial markets and the commodity market – and prices are soaring. Thus, while the stock market is reacting sharply to Putin’s aggressive policies, much volatility is taking place in the global energy market, and oil and gas prices are skyrocketing. The price of a barrel of oil has broken records since 2008 and reached a high of $ 139 in March. In addition, due to the freezing of the “Nord Stream 2” gas pipeline project, gas prices are currently five times higher than usual.
Here it is important to clarify that disruption of oil supply and gas supply, along with changes in production quotas due to tightening sanctions, do not only affect the short term and the Russian market. They are being used as a means of blackmail by Russia vis-à-vis European and US countries, which is working to find alternative energy sources, while trying to improve relations with the Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia. As assigned.
Beyond that, the continuation of the war and its escalation increase the uncertainty and the heavy fears of a sharp global slowdown, leading to price increases and a surge in inflation and the dimensions of poverty in the world. All of these are expected to cause a further decline in the growth rates of countries in Europe and around the world, and lead to surges due to, among other things, disruptions in the supply of Russian gas and the cessation of its flow to European countries, including Germany, France and Italy.
As fears of disruptions in energy supply and prices soar, Putin continues to shell and crush Ukraine. It has taken over about 20% of its territory and is blocking its important strategic ports in the Black Sea, which are responsible for exporting a variety of grains – mainly wheat and corn – and sunflower seeds.
Russia and Ukraine play a key role in the global food market. Russia is responsible for 17% of world wheat exports, and Ukraine is behind the supply of about 80% of all cooking oils such as corn and canola, and provides 17% of corn exports. Ukraine is also the leader in global grain exports with a market share of 12%. Therefore, beyond harming the region’s agriculture and in addition to the consequences of the heavy sanctions imposed on Russia, the confrontation between the two creates upheavals in the world food markets, which could disrupt supplies of more than a quarter of world wheat.
These upheavals, which are reflected in rising prices and logistical disruptions in seaports, are causing a spike in transportation costs and affecting the global food production and supply chain. As a result, poor countries in South Asia, Africa and the Middle East (such as Egypt, Syria and Lebanon, which import about 90% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine) cannot afford price increases and face real food shortages, which means facing hunger and food insecurity.
Thus, a total price increase of about 30%, which is currently taking place, according to UN data, could mainly affect developing countries and weakened populations, widen the gaps between them, strengthen the polarization between them and Western countries, and thus influence price increases and inflation.
Geopolitical implications
The variety of processes and trends, some of which have been described above, leave no room for doubt. It is not easy to admit this, but on the question of who is leading the fight in Europe and in favor of whom time is running, there is no escape from answering: Russia. Thus, as part of the discussions surrounding the Russian military invasion and Putin’s murderous struggle in Ukraine, the West is rediscovering the need to intensify and significantly increase the volume of resources allocated to the security and military spheres.
But – and this is a big but – it is not just a simple arithmetic that includes an increase in the conventional level and the number of tanks, cannons and artillery barrels, along with advanced cyber capabilities that will be available to the states. It is also not a lesson in history that examines the political steps and military moves that have taken place in previous decades, which can shed light on the situation today.
This is a new situation created in the international arena, which requires the West to change its attitude towards Russia and to adopt a new and pragmatic strategic view of it and in general. One that will provide an appropriate response to the map of threats and opportunities, alongside the complex interests and relationships that exist in the international arena. Meanwhile, the United States and the West must learn a lesson from Putin’s conduct and attitude toward him.
Russia is a huge country, rich in natural resources, spread over 11 time zones. It has the largest army in Europe and the second largest in the world, and has the largest nuclear weapons stockpile in the world, which includes about 6,000 nuclear warheads. In addition, it is among the few countries that before the war had positive relations with almost all countries in the Middle East, including Syria, Iran, the Gulf states and the Levant.
In recent years, it has taken care of a growing military presence in the region, with an emphasis on Syria (with a deployment of about 60,000 troops, the establishment of military bases near ports, the deployment of fighter jets and missiles, along with the deployment of air defense systems), and developed military and diplomatic ties with the region. , Despite the ideological gaps and disagreements between them.
In addition, Russia has established relations with Israel as well as with African countries, especially Egypt, Libya and Sudan. All of this has helped it position itself as a source of military power and strength, with the U.S. reducing its presence and activity in the Middle East in the background.
Therefore, from a broad geopolitical point of view, it is time to wake up and understand that although Russia is on the outskirts of Europe and suffers from significant economic and military failures, Putin, who advocates ruthless “real politics”, is the one who sets the tone and pace of events in the international arena. He takes a predatory nihilistic approach and is not sick of waging a brutal war of attrition without a humane and rational price tag.
Meanwhile, the war, which highlights the huge gaps between the parties, the conflicts of interest and the contradiction in positions and values, is a wake-up call that sharpens the West’s need to recalculate a path and formulate a coherent, clear and flexible policy towards the Moscow administration and its leader.
This policy must, on the one hand, take into account these gaps, as well as the strength of Russia and Putin, as well as the weaknesses of the authoritarian government and its head. On the other hand, it must take into account Russia’s global position with China’s support, the two’s common position against American hegemony, as well as Russia’s status and regional importance especially in the Middle East and against the background of US withdrawal from it.
A combination of sober thinking, military skill and accurate intelligence will help the West formulate a sophisticated and appropriate policy, combining avoiding violent and frontal confrontation with the Moscow administration and coming to terms with the spread of Russia’s international influence. All this while projecting power and a cohesive and strong front that has the power to weaken and even stop Russia, let alone the deterioration of the war in Europe and its destructive impact on the international arena.
Dr. Anat Hochberg-Marom