The announcement on Sunday of the rebellious and tormented MK Nir Orbach, who announced his resignation from the coalition, is the watershed that crossed the Benn-Lapid government route to “before” and “after.”
Even after Idit Silman got up and left, even after the revolt of Mazen Ghanaim and Jida Rinawi Zoabi, even after the “Michael Bitton crisis”, the story still revolves around the continuation of the coalition. Once Orbach has made a decision – and according to the latest briefings coming out of his environment, this time it really happened, and the man who hates to make a decision, has indeed made a decision – it seems that the route the government is taking, leads directly to the election. Fives within three years.
While in public, in interviews and briefings, senior government officials continue to convey composure and make sure to emphasize that “nothing is over, and continue to fight for the excellent government”, behind the scenes has already begun the game that can be called “Transition Prime Poker”.
Although Orbach went underground some time ago, the scant information dripping from his associates indicates that he felt a personal commitment to Bennett. Not for the purpose of continuing to support the coalition, but for the level of his coronation as transitional prime minister. Auerbach is willing and willing to give this to Naftali Bennett rather than Yair Lapid. This will probably be the name of the game in the coming weeks, if one proceeds from the assumption that the Knesset dissolution law will go to a vote as early as next week in a preliminary reading and will win a majority of votes, including that of Auerbach.
A year ago, when they formed the coalition agreements between them, this is exactly what Lapid and Bennett thought about: the possibility that their complex ship would not last and would start sinking. In this case, a deterrent mechanism was agreed upon, according to which if two coalition members belonging to Gush Lapid (ie, the center-left parties) supported the dissolution of the Knesset in all three calls, Bennett would be the one to lead the transitional government. And vice versa.
Recall that for now the incumbent prime minister is lagging behind the replacement prime minister in this game. He had already lost points as soon as the coalition lost Silman, the Gush Bennett company. Orbach is likely to overrule “Transitional Prime Minister Poker” if he votes with the opposition on the dissolution of the Knesset in all three readings, and not just in the near future when the law goes to the polls, and is also estimated to be approved in advance.
Bennett, of course, was aware of the situation and about it, among other things, he talked to Auerbach in their frequent meetings. When Bennett asked Orbach to “wait and let Ghanaian affairs and Renoi Zoebi mature”, he did not necessarily mean that Torch would soon straighten things out, the two would resign, and the ship could continue to sail forward in incredible harmony. Ghanaian and Rinawi Zoebi meanwhile have only hardened positions, and it seems that the tops of the tall trees the two have climbed in the past week are not coming down through resignation, but through elections.
Bennett, in fact, seeks to create a situation in which at the moment of truth, in the third and final vote on the Knesset dissolution law, the two rebels belonging to the Gush Lapid will do the work. That is, they will vote in favor of early elections and thus allow him to remain in office at least until after the next elections.
It seems that in this matter Bennett and Orbach are unanimous. Netanyahu also believes that Bennett, as the caretaker prime minister, is better than Lapid as prime minister. “Bennett is weak, and Bibi will star in the field unhindered.” He suffers and flocks in droves to vote ill, but Netanyahu and his associates think otherwise.
Therefore, in recent days, Likud members have launched an information campaign “Bad Torch for Israel.” The messages conveyed in many briefings claim that “if the desperate torch receives the prime minister for even the shortest period, he will jump at the opportunity and riot at appalling levels.” There is nothing that does not use the same briefings to sow fear of death at the very thought that Torch will serve as the transition prime minister. “He will run to Ramallah and promise Abu Mazen everything that Barak and Rabin failed to promise”; “A fair will be held with the Americans and with the Arabs”; “He will leave scorched earth that even Netanyahu, when he returns to Balfour, will have a hard time rehabilitating,” and another good imagination.
Bennett’s environment does not use images taken from horror films, but in conversations with Auerbach, the issue of Biden’s visit arose in this context: “The president of the United States is coming in a month. Theoretically, if there is a will, the system is able to reach the dissolution of the Knesset and go to the polls by mid-July. “It is important that the person who will lead Biden’s visit will be Bennett and not Lapid, who may agree with the Americans on many things that the right is not willing to hear about.”
Netanyahu or Smutrich
According to estimates, if the Knesset dissolution law goes to a vote in a preliminary reading as early as next week or the following week, Auerbach will support and then take the reins. Orbach, who serves as chairman of the Knesset committee, will accept the dispersal law for discussions in his committee, and will be able to determine the pace of discussions in accordance with the pace of political moves that will take place, he hopes, in parallel.
Orbach, like many on both sides of the barricade, does not want an election but the formation of an alternative right-wing government. Not only by virtue of common sense, which says that if Netanyahu has failed to form a government three times, he will not necessarily succeed this time. But also because Orbach is not a naive person and is in no hurry to believe the promises he received on behalf of Netanyahu. What the Likud and Orbach’s entourage prefer to call “general guarantees,” including securing an armored place on the Likud list and a significant ministerial position in the next Netanyahu government.
The bitter trap of all promises and all summaries lies in their very existence. After all, to cause a Knesset member to switch sides by promising a place on the list and a position in the government is a violation of the law. A classic offense from the books and a perfect pretext for opening a criminal investigation.
Benjamin Netanyahu (Photo: Mark Israel Salem)Not only does the law not allow Netanyahu to promise Orbach, a Knesset member on the right, armor on the Likud list and appoint a cabinet minister if and when he is formed, MK Auerbach himself will never be able to come to Netanyahu and demand his promises. In both cases, they are likely to run into law Which forbids just that.
The armor can encounter another, internal hurdle. The Likud always has the small print – the Likud Center. Likud members hear the promises of armor scattered everywhere, are furious, and also promise to do everything so that it does not happen, or will happen to the minimum extent. The Likud, a democratic party, has realistic tools to prevent Netanyahu from keeping his armor promises, at least some of them.
It is precisely for this reason that some claim that Auerbach sees his political future not in the ranks of the Likud but in the list of religious Zionism. Of the options to believe Netanyahu or Smutrich, Auerbach, it is said, tends to prefer the latter option.
Bezalel Smutrich (Photo: Yonatan Zindel Flash 90)In any case, Auerbach is not alone in his efforts to formulate a government for Netanyahu without going to the polls. The ultra-Orthodox-Lithuanian MKs of Torah Judaism have long made it clear that they do not want elections. In recent days, Torah scholars have even tried to speak for Gideon Saar’s heart. Ganz why), so take the word of all the other members of the “Likud Bloc”. The ultra-Orthodox did not give up even after Saar showed no interest.
Bottom line, all opponents of the election will unite in the near future around the idea of preventing the approval of the Knesset dissolution law in the third and final reading, even if it passes the preliminary reading. If they succeed – another round of elections will be avoided.