2024-10-31 18:15:00
He had gone into hiding after Israel’s assassination of Hassan Nasrallah on September 27 in Beirut, the worst setback suffered by the quarantine movement. The number 2 of the Lebanese Shiite movement, Naim Qassem, has cautiously returned to the light, since the Shura Council, ruling body of the Party of God, appointed him general secretary on Tuesday 29 October to succeed the man who was considered the man most powerful in Lebanon.
His discreet and partial exposure, even though before the war he was one of the rare leaders of the organization to appear in public and give interviews, is explained by the Israeli sword of Damocles hanging above his white turban of the Shiite clergy: barely announced , the Israeli Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, judged his “temporary appointment”adding that the “countdown” era “spear”. “The fact that he has been number two for so long means he has already had a target on his back for over thirty years. It is therefore both a choice in favor of the stability of the party but also a default, almost dictated by Israel. observes Joseph Daher, professor at the University of Lausanne and author of the essay Hezbollah, A religious fundamentalism put to the test by neoliberalism (2019, Sillessi). Naim Qassem was not the “first” designated successor to Hassan Nasrallah, but Israel’s campaign to eliminate the contenders one by one, including the favorite Hachem Safieddine, killed in early October, served as a springboard.
“No radical organizational change”
The first speech by Naim Qassem, a 71-year-old veteran, could therefore only be pre-recorded: on Wednesday the new secretary general appeared on video in a dark tunic, in front of the portrait of Hassan Nasrallah, to address his supporters, his allies, the rest of the world and especially Israel.
For this very in-depth speech, he revisited the usual ideological points of the organization, which he co-founded in 1982, after leaving the other major Shiite movement, Amal. This use of Hezbollah’s “classic” software “suggests that his appointment will not lead to radical organizational change”analyzes the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank. This French-speaking former chemistry teacher, born in Beirut to a family from the village of Kfar Fila, near Israel, also dedicated a book to the pro-Iranian Shiite movement. Hezbollah. The path, the experience, the future (published in French in 2008 by Albouraq), radical but designed to shed light on the history and ideology of the opaque organization.
In his speech, Naim Qassem then praised the movement’s military capabilities and resilience, assuring that its fighters, although severely weakened by Israeli operations and attacks, could continue the fight. “for months”according to the “war plan” designed by Nasrallah. Courageously, the 70-year-old even urged the Israeli army to withdraw from southern Lebanon “reduce losses”otherwise, he would pay a “unprecedented tribute”. As if to illustrate his threat, seven civilians were killed in rocket attacks on northern Israel on Thursday 31 October alone.
A separate ceasefire, but not at any price
Naim Qassem follows the direct line of his charismatic predecessor to whom he was very close, but embraces the most recent declinations of the movement. Like several Hezbollah MPs, he no longer links the ceasefire to the end of the fighting in Gaza. “This change in rhetoric on the unity of the fronts between Gaza and Lebanon is explained by the fact that the party is experiencing the greatest challenge, both political and military, since its creation, but also because this strategy is a failure. After more than a year, this did not stop the genocide in Gaza and Lebanon was destroyed. The separation of the fronts is therefore essential,” I love the expert
So will Naim Qassem be the architect of the ceasefire with Israel, while discussions are taking place between American and Israeli emissaries in this direction? He had already declared this to the Israelis on October 15th «the solution» allow the return of the inhabitants of the north of the country “a ceasefire”. “If this is the case, it will not be at all costs. But for the moment the paths mentioned, very advantageous for Israel, and therefore difficult to accept, believes Joseph Daher. But if there is a chance to conclude a separate ceasefire from Gaza, Hezbollah will do it and Iran, for which the Lebanese movement is a jewel, will not oppose it. But Naim Qassem’s priority is to safeguard the party’s civil, political and military infrastructure and ensure that the movement does not weaken further politically internally and militarily in the face of Israel. »
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Interview Between Time.news Editor and Hezbollah Expert Joseph Daher
Editor: Welcome, Joseph. It’s great to have you with us today. As an expert on Hezbollah, your insights will be incredibly valuable, especially in light of the recent developments regarding Naim Qassem’s ascension to leadership. Can you start by giving us an overview of the significance of this change in leadership following Hassan Nasrallah’s assassination?
Daher: Thank you for having me. Naim Qassem’s appointment as general secretary of Hezbollah is indeed a momentous shift, particularly given the context of Nasrallah’s assassination. This loss marks a critical setback not only for Hezbollah but for Iranian influence in the region. Qassem, who has been the second-in-command for over three decades, inherits a deeply entrenched and complex organization facing existential challenges. His leadership will be crucial in maintaining the party’s stability amidst ongoing threats from Israel.
Editor: It’s interesting that Qassem had gone into hiding after Nasrallah’s assassination. His cautious return to the public eye seems to emphasize the dangerous environment in which Hezbollah operates. How do you assess his strategic positioning given these circumstances?
Daher: Absolutely. The Israeli campaign targets leaders like Qassem has intensified, creating a precarious situation for Hezbollah’s upper echelons. His choice to present himself cautiously fits into a broader strategy of resilience. While he may not be a radical departure from Nasrallah’s policies, his ability to navigate this environment remains critical. The fact that he chose to make his first speech pre-recorded speaks to an awareness of the risks involved.
Editor: In his speech, Qassem reiterated Hezbollah’s long-standing ideological positions and military capabilities. Do you believe this indicates a potential for continuity in Hezbollah’s strategy, or should we expect any shifts under his leadership?
Daher: The aspects of continuity are quite pronounced. Analysis from various think tanks suggests that Qassem’s appointment is unlikely to result in radical organizational changes. He is known for his strong ties to Iran and his commitment to the core tenets of Hezbollah. While he may introduce minor adjustments — perhaps in operational tactics — the overall ideological framework will likely remain intact. His focus on sustaining military capabilities and readiness reflects a desire to project strength amid external pressures.
Editor: With Qassem urging the Israeli army to withdraw from southern Lebanon and threatening “unprecedented tribute,” it seems there’s a significant risk of escalation. How does Qassem’s rhetoric align with Hezbollah’s historical approach to conflict?
Daher: His rhetoric is very much in line with Hezbollah’s historical posture. They’ve always embraced a combative stance towards perceived threats, particularly from Israel. The calling for an Israeli withdrawal is both a tactical and a psychological maneuver, aiming to rally support internally and deter external aggression. However, the risk of escalation is real, especially as Israel responds to provocations on its borders. Qassem must balance assertiveness with the need to avoid a full-blown conflict that could devastate Lebanon further.
Editor: how do you perceive the future of Hezbollah under Qassem’s leadership in the broader context of Lebanese politics and regional dynamics?
Daher: The future of Hezbollah is tied intricately to both domestic and regional dynamics. Domestically, Qassem must contend with the socio-economic crises facing Lebanon and growing discontent among various political factions. Regionally, Hezbollah’s role is influenced by Iranian policies and its relationship with other groups in the region. The strategic landscape remains fluid; while Qassem’s leadership may reinforce Hezbollah’s military capabilities, navigating the delicate socio-political environment will be a formidable challenge. His success will depend not only on military strength but also on his ability to engage with the Lebanese populace and address their pressing concerns.
Editor: Thank you, Joseph. Your insights into Hezbollah’s current trajectory under Naim Qassem’s leadership help illuminate the complexities ahead for both the organization and the region. We appreciate your expertise!
Daher: It’s my pleasure. Thank you for having me.
