2024-06-17 12:59:34
Author- Hilal Ahmed
A well-liked argument is that Muslims at all times want to help anti-BJP forces to maintain it out of presidency. This time this argument has been used with nice vigour to elucidate the success of the All India Alliance. It’s claimed that Muslims determined to vote strategically to defeat BJP candidates on the constituency degree. This rationalization is just not unsuitable in any respect. The CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey reveals that on the nationwide degree a big part of Muslims voted enthusiastically for non-BJP events. Nonetheless, this doesn’t imply that the BJP didn’t get Muslim votes.
The survey reveals that the get together managed to get round 8% of Muslim votes on the nationwide degree. This determine is nearly negligible. Nonetheless, there’s a want to search out out the important thing elements that made a bit of Muslims vote for the Modi-led BJP on this election.
There are two very distinct points of the BJP’s Muslim coverage, at the very least within the electoral sense. The primary is Hindutva-linked actions that alienate. First, the get together doesn’t deviate from its Hindutva-driven narrative of cultural nationalism. On this framework, Muslims are both projected as a problematic entity or they’re made virtually invisible as a way to declare nationalism in overtly Hindu phrases.
This narrative of cultural nationalism is at all times used to succeed in out to the core, dedicated and dependable Hindutva voters. The derogatory and anti-Muslim remarks made by a bit of senior BJP members through the election marketing campaign are a very good instance on this regard.
The second is the BJP’s inclusive marketing campaign. Nearly paradoxically, the BJP beneath Modi has introduced the slogan of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas as a reference level to succeed in out to all sections of society, together with Muslims.
The ban on triple talaq has been projected as a political achievement. Equally, the get together has tried to succeed in out to Pasmanda Muslims, which additionally helps its claims of Sabka Saath coverage. Actually, the impression created is that the BJP has managed to affect the political decisions of Muslim girls and Pasmanda teams in its favour. Apparently, this expression of inclusiveness has actually helped the BJP fulfill a big part of its Hindu voters, who anticipate the get together to work for social and spiritual concord.
Social gathering’s 2024 place
The BJP’s electoral technique for Muslims in 2024 was simple. It appears the get together determined to downplay the Sabka Saath coverage. The BJP manifesto had no election guarantees for spiritual minorities. Although the Ram Mandir subject was not given any prominence within the manifesto, the get together’s marketing campaign turned fully Hindutva-centric.
Senior get together leaders, together with Modi, tried to take care of stability by making optimistic feedback about Muslims, however the focus of the marketing campaign remained virtually one-sided.
This extremely risky political context considerably affected Muslim voting. The 8% of Muslims who voted for the BJP this time was about one proportion level lower than the 2019 Muslim vote share for the get together.
The CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey can be helpful in understanding this class of BJP’s Muslim voters. Two factors are essential.
Gujarat vs UP
First, Muslim help for the BJP is a state-centric phenomenon. For instance, in Gujarat, the BJP bought about 29% of the Muslim vote, whereas it fared a lot worse within the Hindi belt. In UP, it bought solely 2% of the Muslim vote. This state-centric Muslim voting sample underlines how Lok Sabha elections are solely pushed by state-level points and concerns.
Ashraf vs Pasmanda
Second, the socio-economic standing of those Muslim voters of BJP can be an essential issue. On the nationwide degree, about 12% of Ashraf Muslims voted for BJP. Then again, the get together bought solely 5% of OBC Muslim votes.
This discovering is opposite to the favored perception that Muslim OBCs or Pasmanda communities are extra inclined to help the BJP. Ashraf Muslims are extra open to embracing the BJP. This additionally reveals that the BJP’s assault on OBC reservation has influenced the voting behaviour of the Pasmanda communities.
Center class vs the remainder
The financial background of those 8% Muslim voters of the BJP is equally attention-grabbing. Our information reveals that the get together was a preferred alternative among the many poorest and economically marginalised sections of Muslims. It bought 11% of the votes from this part of Muslims. The Muslim center class didn’t discover the BJP engaging on this election. Nonetheless, about 6% of wealthy and prosperous Muslims voted for it.
This financial evaluation factors to a transparent sample. The welfare schemes launched by the Modi authorities to succeed in out to the poor and marginalised sections of society in some way labored within the get together’s favour. Regardless of being rejected by the vast majority of Muslim voters, the BJP managed to safe the votes of poor Muslims. Evidently these Muslims behaved similar to different beneficiaries of welfare schemes. The altering perspective of wealthy and elite Muslims can be comprehensible. These teams are at all times open to political bargaining.
General, this transient evaluation of the BJP’s Muslim vote highlights that the get together has didn’t formulate a transparent, pragmatic electoral technique to garner efficient Muslim help on this election.
(The writer is affiliate professor on the Centre for the Research of Growing Societies.)