UN Succession Watch: The Search for a New Leader Amidst Global Challenges
The United Nations initiated its search for a new Secretary-General in November, with a growing call for the next leader to be a woman. As the credibility of the international body faces increasing scrutiny, the selection process – heavily influenced by the permanent members of the Security Council – is poised to be a complex geopolitical undertaking.
The position, often described as the world’s most important, has been held by ten individuals to date, with two hailing from Nordic countries: Norway’s Trygve Lie and Sweden’s Dag Hammarskjöld. The current Secretary-General, António Guterres of Portugal, will conclude his term in 2026, prompting speculation about potential successors.
Currently, the expectation is that the next Secretary-General will come from Latin America, shifting away from the European tradition. This regional rotation is a long-standing, though informal, practice intended to ensure equitable representation. “It’s not Europe’s turn,” stated a senior official from the Finnish UN Federation, Helena Laukko, to Iltalehte, effectively ruling out potential Finnish candidates like former President Sauli Niinistö and former Prime Minister Sanna Marin. While both are considered strong contenders with valuable diplomatic experience, the established rotation protocol takes precedence.
Finland’s Foreign Ministry is not actively preparing a candidacy, acknowledging the slim chances of success for a Western candidate. “One would have to be an exceptional candidate in many ways to be considered for the candidacy of the western group,” a source within the Ministry explained.
The desire for a female Secretary-General has been a recurring theme for several years, highlighted during Guterres’ election in 2016. Despite this push, a man currently leads the field: Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). He has become a familiar figure, particularly due to the IAEA’s monitoring of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant during the war in Ukraine. According to Laukko, Grossi’s strong relationships with the permanent members of the Security Council could bolster his candidacy. However, potential criticism could arise from countries like Iran, following the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities while Grossi remained largely silent.
Several other candidates have emerged, including former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet and former Costa Rican Vice President Rebeca Grynspan, both of whom bring extensive UN experience to the table. Bachelet previously served as the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, while Grynspan currently holds the position of Secretary General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Laukko suggests Grynspan may have a slight advantage, given the current global focus on trade and development. Other potential candidates include former New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, former Mexican Foreign Minister Alicia Barcena, and Bolivian Vice President David Choquehuanca.
The selection process is governed by the UN Charter, specifically Article 97, which stipulates that the Secretary-General is appointed by the General Assembly upon the recommendation of the Security Council. While any member state can propose a candidate, informal practices dictate that each country supports only one nominee, and none from the five permanent Security Council members – the United States, Great Britain, France, Russia, and China. Candidates are expected to be career diplomats fluent in both French and English, and must submit a vision for the UN’s development and a report on their financial sources.
The power of the Security Council is paramount, with its permanent members wielding the veto power. This ability to block a candidate can significantly shape the outcome, as demonstrated in 1971 when the Soviet Union vetoed the candidacy of Finnish diplomat Max Jakobson, despite him being considered the frontrunner by The New York Times. The Soviet Union reportedly opposed Jakobson due to concerns about the potential foreign policy independence Finland might exercise under his leadership.
The role of the Security Council is evolving, with calls for greater transparency and inclusivity. The “1 for 8 billion” campaign advocates for a more democratic selection process, pushing for the Security Council to present multiple candidates to the General Assembly. “
The position of Secretary-General is undeniably challenging, particularly at a time when the UN faces multiple conflicts and a crisis of credibility. President Alexander Stubb of Finland has echoed calls for reform of the Security Council, advocating for greater representation from the Global South. The next Secretary-General will inherit a complex landscape, requiring exceptional diplomatic skills and a commitment to strengthening the UN’s role in a rapidly changing world.
A list of previous UN Secretaries-General is provided below for historical context:
- Gladwyn Jebb (Great Britain), Acting Secretary-General 24 October 1945–2 February 1946
- Trygve Lie (Norway), 1946–1952 (resigned)
- Dag Hammarskjöld (Sweden), 1953–1961 (died in office)
- U Thant (Burma), 1962–1971 (acting secretary-general 3 November 1961–30 November 1962)
- Kurt Waldheim (Austria), 1972–1981
- Javier Pérez de Cuéllar (Peru), 1982–1991
- Boutros Boutros-Ghali (Egypt), 1992–1996 (only one-term Secretary General)
- Kofi Annan (Ghana) 1997–2006
- Ban Ki-moon (South Korea) 2007–2016
- António Guterres (Portugal) 2017–2026
