The three by-elections for the Tokyo 15th Ward, Shimane 1st Ward, and Nagasaki 3rd Ward of the House of Representatives, which are expected to have an impact on Prime Minister Kishida’s future administration, were won by candidates from the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, and the Liberal Democratic Party They lost seats, including in constituencies where they decided not to field candidates.
These three by-elections are the first national elections since the LDP faction’s political funding issue came to light last fall, and the LDP did not field candidates in Tokyo’s 15th ward and Nagasaki’s 3rd ward.
In Shimane 1st Ward, the only area where the ruling and opposition parties faced off, an all-out battle was waged, with Prime Minister Kishida and Constitutional Democratic Party Representative Izumi joining in to support the election on the last day of the campaign.
In Shimane 1st Ward, former Constitutional Democratic Party member Akiko Kamei (58) was elected for the second time.
In Tokyo’s 15th ward, which had a record-breaking nine contestants, Natsumi Sakai (37), a newcomer to the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, was elected for the first time.
Furthermore, in Nagasaki 3rd Ward, a contest between two opposition candidates, former Constitutional Democratic Party member Katsuhiko Yamada (44) was elected for the second time.
On the other hand, the turnout this time was 54.62% in Shimane 1st ward, 40.70% in Tokyo 15th ward, and 35.45% in Nagasaki 3rd ward, all of which were the lowest ever.
table of contents
table of contents
[Tokyo’s 15th ward is Mr. Natsumi Sakai]
[Akiko Kamei is in Shimane 1st Ward]
[Nagasaki 3rd ward is Mr. Katsuhiko Yamada]
《Reactions from each party》
Secretary-General Motegi: “There were very strong headwinds.”
Secretary-General Motegi told reporters, “I accept that the election results were very tough.Throughout the election campaign, there was an overwhelming amount of activity in Shimane 1st Ward, despite headwinds, but the headwinds were extremely strong. We were unable to make the policy permeate.We take the harsh results seriously, and we will strive to restore the public’s trust by continuing to make constant reform efforts and resolving issues.”
Election Committee Chairman Obuchi: “I am acutely aware of the weight of this responsibility.”
Obuchi, chairman of the campaign committee, told reporters, “I myself went to the site and worked hard to support the campaign, but the result was like this.I received a lot of criticism.I am keenly aware of the weight of this responsibility. I believe that the results of the election did not earn the people’s trust, so I would like to thoroughly analyze this election, work to restore trust, analyze it, and prepare for the next election.”
Representative Izumi: “I would like to request an early dissolution.”
Izumi, the representative of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, said at a press conference, “Since the LDP’s slush fund scandal was discovered, the investigation into the truth has been vague, the punishment has been half-hearted, and the LDP’s political reform plans have been completely disappointing and have had a negative effect on the three constituencies. Although we won, there are many people across the country who want to express their intentions.If the Liberal Democratic Party’s political reform bill does not seem to move forward, I would like to request its early dissolution in order to come up with a political reform bill that everyone will agree with in the second half of the Diet. I want to do my best.” Regarding the submission of a resolution of no confidence in the Cabinet, he said, “Since it is said that it can only be done once per session, I would like to make a decision in a timely and appropriate manner.” On the other hand, regarding future collaboration with opposition parties, he said, “This election has proven that if many people cooperate and collaborate to change the LDP’s politics, it is possible to overturn its strong conservative base. If each party thinks with the mindset that it will not be tolerated, it will become clear that they will do something about it.”
Representative Baba: “Results based on the strength of our party”
Representative Baba said at the party’s headquarters in Osaka: “It is still very difficult for our party to win in single-seat constituencies outside of Kansai with the results we have at our party’s strength.” Without the backing of the party, there is no other way to win than by accumulating votes on our own, so we will continue to build up our activities from scratch in preparation for the House of Representatives elections that will be held soon.” Regarding the fact that the Liberal Democratic Party lost seats, including in constituencies where it did not field candidates, he said, “The anger of the people has reached its peak, and if we misjudge the atmosphere, we will be in trouble.”We will discuss political reform in the Diet.” The special committee needs to come up with a conclusion that will make the people think, “Is this true?” We will not allow the LDP to try to mess things up. We will work together as one to reach a conclusion.” On the other hand, regarding collaboration with other opposition parties in the run-up to the next House of Representatives election, he said, “Japan’s country will not improve even if the Constitutional Democratic Party is the main opposition party.Politics is all about winning elections and gathering numbers. “Instead, we are not considering any kind of election cooperation with other parties.”
Campaign Committee Chairman Nishida: “We will put all our efforts into restoring people’s trust in politics”
Nishida, chairman of the election committee, said, “We will take this result seriously, make sure to carry out political reforms such as amending the Political Funds Control Act, which has been discussed in the Diet, and put all our efforts into restoring the people’s trust in politics.” ” he commented.
Chief Secretary Koike: “Voters clearly expressed no confidence in the prime minister.”
Secretary-General Koike told reporters, “This is a very happy result.The voters passed a harsh judgment on the Liberal Democratic Party, and the Nippon Ishin no Kai, which is a complementary force to the Liberal Democratic Party. I would like to express my heartfelt respect to all those who have given their all.The voters clearly expressed their lack of confidence in Prime Minister Kishida, and even after the long holiday, the Diet held the Kishida administration’s political responsibility for issues such as slush funds, livelihoods, and the economy. We will pursue the matter thoroughly and force it into dissolution and a general election.”
Campaign Committee Chairman Hamano: “As a result of harsh evaluations from the public regarding the management of the government”
Hamano, chairman of the Democratic Party of Japan’s election committee, said, “Although we nominated Mr. Ototake in Tokyo’s 15 wards, we must sincerely reflect on the fact that we were not able to receive enough votes to criticize the administration.” The fact that the Kishida Cabinet was unable to win any seats was a result of the public’s harsh evaluation of the current management of the Kishida Cabinet, especially its reforms to the slush fund issue, which were deemed to be completely inadequate. “We should immediately work on effective and stricter legal reforms that incorporate opposition proposals, such as disclosing the use of government and policy activity funds.”
[Reporter Commentary]“Strong criticism of the political funding issue has emerged.”
Q. The Liberal Democratic Party lost seats and won three votes. How do you view the overall results?
A. There was strong criticism of the issue of political funding by factions of the Liberal Democratic Party. The Liberal Democratic Party was unable to field candidates in two constituencies, and went all-out in the remaining Shimane 1st ward. Top officials visited the area every day, and Prime Minister Kishida also rushed to the site on the 27th to call for a reversal, but the difficult situation did not change. During the election campaign, one member of the ruling party said, “We are in a situation where a magma of distrust in politics is building up,” which left an impression on me. On the other hand, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan achieved its first victory in a national election since Izumi became its representative. What’s more, he won all three, turning the headwinds against the Liberal Democratic Party into solid support.
Q. What are the reasons for victory and defeat in Shimane 1st Ward? How do you see it?
A.The Liberal Democratic Party was directly criticized. NHK’s exit poll asked whether they considered politics and money when voting. 76% of people said they had “considered” it. Of these, approximately 70% said they voted for Kamei. Mr. Kamei has received the support of other opposition parties this time, so to speak, he is the unified opposition candidate. This is a successful way to generate votes critical of the Liberal Democratic Party. Mr. Nishikori on the other hand. Support for the Liberal Democratic Party remained at around 70%. Supporters of Komeito remain in the low 50% range. Both prices were lower than last time, which means Mr. Kamei had partially cut them down. In fact, about 30% of LDP supporters said they voted for Kamei.
Q. What are the reasons for victory and defeat in Tokyo’s 15 wards? How do you see it?
A. Mr. Sakai received support from over 80% of the Constitutional Democratic Party supporters and mid-70% of the Communist Party supporters. Additionally, independents accounted for the largest share, at around 30%. The votes of Liberal Democratic Party supporters who decided not to field a candidate were not concentrated on a particular candidate, but were dispersed among Kanazawa from the Ishin no Kai, Sudo from the independent party, Iiyama from various factions, and Ototake from the independent party. Mr. Sakai ended up getting out.
Q. What are the perceptions and reactions of the ruling and opposition parties?
A.The Liberal Democratic Party may have been prepared to some extent, but the results in Shimane 1st Ward were shocking. Shimane is a conservative kingdom. Since the introduction of the single-seat constituency system, Shimane Prefecture is the only prefecture in the country where the Liberal Democratic Party has monopolized the seats in constituencies. For that reason, I think that within the Liberal Democratic Party, we have no choice but to take a harsh stance on this, as we are now at a point where the next House of Representatives election could be held at any time. Constitutional Democratic Party Representative Izumi has been emphasizing that “this is an extremely important battle to move political reform forward,” and he is poised to use this as a tailwind to further strengthen his offensive in the Diet.
Q. What is the impact on the political situation?
A. There is no doubt that this is damaging to the government. During our interviews, we heard voices, mainly from mid-career and young voters whose electoral base is unstable, saying, “Prime Minister Kishida may not be able to fight in the next House of Representatives election.” On the other hand, a senior administration official said, “Instead of arguing that Prime Minister Kishida is responsible, we have to revise the Political Funds Control Act,” and it appears that the government will prioritize policy issues for the time being. Prime Minister Kishida’s term as president expires in September, and he has one and a half years left in his term as a member of the House of Representatives. Prime Minister Kishida will carefully assess the situation within the party and consider how to respond to the presidential election and the dissolution of the House of Representatives.