WASHINGTON, February 2, 2026 — Natural gas futures are at a critical juncture, with traders weighing a potentially softening demand outlook against lingering cold risks that could tighten supplies through mid-February. The price action suggests the market is keenly focused on demand, even as production in the Lower 48 states rebounds.
Cold Weather and Ukraine Aid Concerns Fuel Volatility
A frigid blast gripping much of the U.S. is colliding with worries over delayed aid to Ukraine, adding to natural gas market uncertainty.
- U.S. and European officials are concerned about the slow release of hundreds of millions of dollars in promised U.S. energy assistance to Ukraine.
- Restricted natural gas supplies are contributing to power generator outages and higher spot prices in several states.
- Despite increased production, traders are prioritizing demand-side factors.
- Frigid temperatures are expected to continue through the weekend, driving up national demand.
The situation is complicated by the fact that hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. energy assistance pledged to Ukraine remains unreleased, even as a severe winter threatens the nation’s already strained power grid. Meanwhile, restricted natural gas supplies to power plants have triggered generator outages and pushed up spot prices across the U.S., particularly within the PJM Interconnection, which manages electricity flow for 67 million people in 13 Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states, plus Washington D.C.
What’s driving natural gas price fluctuations? The market is responding to a complex interplay of factors, including weather patterns, geopolitical concerns, and supply/demand dynamics.
According to reports from natgasweather.com, frigid temperatures will persist through the weekend across the Midwest and eastern U.S., with lows ranging from -20s to 20s Fahrenheit and highs from 0s to 30s. Texas, the South, and Southeast will experience lows in the 10s to 30s. The West will remain relatively mild, with highs in the 40s to 70s. Overall national demand is expected to be very high through the weekend before easing next week.
The February futures contract expired on January 28 at a significant premium to the March contract. The March contract found support at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $3.783 on January 29. A subsequent attempt on January 30 to break the 50 EMA ($4.251), reaching a high of $4.414, was thwarted by a gap-down opening on Monday, pushing futures below the 200 EMA. Natural gas futures are currently attempting to hold above immediate support at $3.164.
Analysis of a 1-hour chart reveals extreme indecisiveness in natural gas futures, with multiple bearish crossovers occurring as the 9 EMA, 20 EMA, 50 EMA, and 100 EMA all fell below the 200 EMA. Futures are currently trading below the 9 EMA ($3.742). Despite this bearish trend, a strong bounce is possible, potentially sustaining futures above the 200 EMA in today’s session if buying pressure emerges at the immediate support level of $3.614.
