2024-03-17 09:55:04
BJP’s position is strong in Haryana, Bihar, Himachal Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Assam, Goa. Apart from this, BJP is also hoping to improve its performance in West Bengal, Odisha and Jammu and Kashmir. Apart from this, the party is also facing a challenge from Congress in Karnataka.
Haryana (10 seats) : BJP, which is focusing on winning all 10 seats in the state again, swiftly replaced CM ML Khattar with OBC leader Nayab Singh Saini just days before the election was announced. Khattar will now contest from Karnal Lok Sabha seat. To deal with the anti-incumbency wave, especially in rural areas, the BJP also abandoned its alliance partner JJP. But the party seems to be facing difficult situations in two seats – Ambala and Sirsa. Meanwhile, Congress has got a boost from the last-minute switch of BJP MP from Hisar, Brijendra Singh. She will contest elections on 9 seats. He has left Kurukshetra for you. Both INLD and JJP are struggling to remain relevant.
Bihar (40 seats): There are three big parties in Bihar, BJP, RJD and JDU. Whichever two people join hands wins. Hence, with JD(U) switching over to BJP’s NDA from the RJD-led India Bloc, the NDA has the edge in the tug-of-war for 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Whereas CM Nitish Kumar’s flip-flop may tarnish his image. His core voters – Kurmis (Nitish’s caste), Kushwaha and Extremely Backward Class (EBC) – are strongly with him. RJD, on the other hand, is mainly dependent on its Muslim-Yadav (MY) equation. This is more than 30% of the population of Bihar. The support of CPI-ML and other Left parties may help it win some seats.
Himachal Pradesh (4 seats) : BJP won all four Lok Sabha seats in Himachal in 2014 and 2019 and will hope for a hat-trick. However, the Congress won the Mandi Lok Sabha seat in the by-election in 2021, and then won the assembly a year later. Therefore the election is a test of his popularity and performance. However, right now, it is surrounded by discontent against CM Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu, due to which it lost the Rajya Sabha seat.
West Bengal (42 seats): BJP had won 18 out of 42 seats in the state in the year 2019. This is his best performance till date. Hopefully this time she will move forward to do better than the Sandeshkhali controversy. However, making an issue involving two blocks that are related by 340 blocks would require some imagination. Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool will run its campaign on anger against the Centre’s delay in releasing social-welfare schemes and dues like Kanyashree and Lakshmi Bhandar. It will also use the recent mass deactivation of Aadhaar in some districts to stoke people’s fears about the CAA and Aadhaar. With the help of CPM, Congress will be desperate to capture Berhampur and Malda, but it may see its position diminishing in Bengal.
Odisha (21 seats): There could be a direct fight here between the BJP and Naveen Patnaik-led BJD, or both could come together in an alliance. Looked like a compromise until a few days ago. PM Modi shared the stage with CM Patnaik and there was talk of BJD returning to NDA after a gap of 15 years. However, no official announcement has been made yet. Meanwhile, Patnaik is focusing his efforts on winning the simultaneous assembly elections for the sixth time.
Maharashtra (48 seats): Maharashtra is a strong Lok Sabha state with 48 seats. The fight here is between NDA and MVA. BJP’s Operation Lotus has already divided MVA constituents Shiv Sena and NCP. Whereas Congress is now its target. However, this manipulation has linked it with leaders it once branded corrupt. These include Ajit Pawar (irrigation scam) and Ashok Chavan (Adarsh scam). The BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP alliance also leaves fewer seats for each member, so there will be resentment among ticket seekers. On the other hand, the weak MVA is playing the victim role and accusing the BJP of misusing central agencies and institutions like the Assembly Speaker’s office to break the opposition. It will contest the elections on issues such as the Maratha-OBC divide, rising political violence and alleged dominance of a business group in state infrastructure projects.
Karnataka (28 seats): Congress has found the issue of ‘economic injustice’ of the Centre. It hopes its five electoral guarantees will win 15 Lok Sabha seats, but it needs to find the right candidates and end the bickering. It also needs to keep the Lingayats happy, who had supported it in the assembly elections. Despite losing the assembly elections, BJP is targeting more than 20 seats independently. It is expected that people will vote differently for Lok Sabha. Under the leadership of BY Vijayendra, it hopes that the Lingayats will come back to its fold. The support of the JDS, especially in the old Mysuru region, and the Ram temple could also improve the BJP’s prospects.
Assam (14 seats): BJP has been on a winning streak in Assam since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections (winning 7 out of 14). It won nine seats in 2019 and maintained a lead over rivals Congress and AIUDF. This was partly due to the delimitation of constituencies last year. Now, there are only a few seats where Muslim voters of Bangladesh origin can decide the election outcome. The re-distribution of assembly constituencies within the Lok Sabha seats has left only Dhubri with the AIUDF. And Gaurav Gogoi – deputy leader of Congress in the Lok Sabha, has shifted to Jorhat. The seat was won by his late father and former CM Tarun Gogoi in 1971 and 1977, since his Koliabor seat has ceased to exist.
Goa (2 seats): BJP is in a comfortable position in North Goa seat, but it will have to work a little harder to wrest South Goa from Congress. The fear of Hindu polarization among minority voters is the main obstacle for the BJP here, but last time when the BJP lost, its ally MGP had parted ways with it. The alliance with AAP has given some strength to the Congress as it can prevent division of ‘secular’ votes. The performance of the Revolutionary Goans Party (RGP), a regional party which had eaten away Congress votes in the last assembly elections, remains an X factor.
Jammu and Kashmir (5 seats): This will be the first Lok Sabha election in Jammu and Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370 in December 2019. Whereas BJP seems to be in better position on two seats of Jammu. Here it is repeating its existing MLAs for the third time, but the party may have to face a tough fight on the Union Territory Ladakh seat. Ladakhis want their statehood back, and BJP may have to suffer the consequences of this. There is likely to be a tough contest on three seats in Kashmir between regional parties – Sajjad Lone’s People’s Conference, Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP and Farooq Abdullah’s NC.
Jharkhand (14 seats): The BJP has dominated Jharkhand elections for a decade, but a sense of alienation among tribals, Dalits and backward classes could see some of the state’s 14 seats revert to the centre-left ideology represented by the Congress, JMM and RJD. . At present, BJP has 11 seats, while its allies AJSU-P, Congress and JMM have one seat each. Recently, Geeta Koda, the only Congress MP from Singhbhum, changed sides and joined BJP. This brightened the saffron party’s prospects on that seat. Analysts say Modi’s charisma has helped BJP candidates in the past, but this time, sensing the mood, the party has weeded out non-performers. Has refused to give tickets to two sitting MPs. The announcement of two more seats has been delayed. To deal with the anti-incumbency wave, BJP can field new faces.